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Super Typhoon Jelawat

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TD 18W has formed several hundred miles east of the Philippines. A large area of convection is persisting near the LLC. Intensity is 25kts. 18W is in a favourable environment for strengthening, with low shear, warm sea temps. Outflow is also expected to improve over the coming days. For this reason, JTWC forecast 18W to have sustained winds of 95kts by day 5 as the cyclone nears the Philippines. One to watch.

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18W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Jelawat, with intensity now at 35kts. Jelawat maintains deep convection over the LLC. As I said before, Jelawat is expected to intensify further over the coming days as the environment remains favourable. The storm is moving westwards along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to weaken over the next few days, and steering currents will become weak, meaning Jelawat will grind to a halt. Early next week, Jelawat is forecast to begin to move to the northwest, east of Luzon, as the ridge rebuilds.

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No threat to Taiwan from the 'fishy' one????:

Taipei, Sept. 21 (CNA) Tropical Storm Jelawat has formed near the Philippines Friday, but it is not expected to pose a threat to Taiwan in the near future, the Central Weather Bureau said. As of 8 a.m., Jelawat was centered 1,480 kilometers southeast of the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving at a speed of 9 km per hour in a west-southwesterly direction. It was packing winds of 83 kph, with gusts reaching 108 kph, the bureau said.

Meanwhile, temperatures across the island in the days ahead are expected to go up by two or three degrees Celsius as rain-bearing cloud bands start to move away from Taiwan, the bureau said.Daily highs in northern and eastern Taiwan may reach up to 30 degrees, while central and southern areas may see clearer skies with maximum temperatures hovering between 30 and 32 degrees, the bureau said.However, the bureau said daily lows are expected to remain between 22-25 degrees, with afternoon showers likely across the island.

The weather pattern is expected to continue until Sunday, when another cold front may move close to the island and bring temperatures down again.

Jelawat means carp in Malaysia

http://focustaiwan.t...ID=201209210009

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ropical Storm JELAWAT: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

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Jelawat is crawling towards the west-southwest in a weak steering environment. Sustained winds have reached 55kts. Both the Philippines and Taiwan need to watch Jelawat as the storms motion northwards then northwestwards puts both countries in the vicinity of Jelawat over the coming days. The track charts Coast has posted shows this well. The environment ahead looks very favourable, and Jelawat is expected to become an intense typhoon.

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Jelawat should soon be a typhoon. Intensity is now 60kts. On satellite, it looks like an eye is about to pop out of the central dense overcast. Ocean heat content is very high underneath Jelawat, shear is practically non-existant and the upper level outflow is improving with time. Looks like another beast in the making here, don't be surprised to see some rapid intensification over the next 24hrs.

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Jelawat has bombed overnight. A well defined eye has emerged, flanked by intense banding. Sustained winds have responded accordingly, and are now at 100kts, meaning Jelawat is a category 3 typhoon on the SS scale. Further rapid intensification is expected, and cat 5 is a very real possibility IMO. Track forecast has shifted north and east putting Taiwan more in the firing line and potentially lessening impact on the Philippines as Jelawat passes to the east.

post-1820-0-01423800-1348389270_thumb.jp

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Several provinces placed on storm alert

Areas affected by storm will experience heavy rainfall

Manila: Several provinces in the eastern portion of the country were placed on alert yesterday as storm Jelawat (local codename, Lawin) continued to gain strength. Jelawat was reported a 4:00 pm today to be located 405 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar while carrying with maximum sustained winds of 105 kph near the centre and gustiness of up to 135 kph. The weather disturbance was forecast by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to move in a north northwest slowly. The storm has a diameter of 600 kilometres.

The province of Eastern Samar had been placed under storm signal No 2 while Signal No 1 had been hoisted over the provinces of Sorsogon, Leyte, Northern and Western Samar. Initially forecast to just clip the Philippines area of responsibility, PAGASA said there are now indications that Jelawat will make a landfall in Northeastern Philippines’ Cagayan or the Batanes group of islands sometime by tomorrow or Tuesday.

“The storm is moving slowly at a speed of 9 kph,†PAGASA said. Areas affected by the storm will experience heavy to intense rainfall of 10 to up to 25 mm per hour. PAGASA alerted those living in coastal areas to be on the alert for big waves while fishing boats and other small seacraft were told to avoid the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves

In Metro Manila, PAGASA advised residents to prepare for heavy rains and possible flash floods. As an effect of the weather disturbance, Manila as well as the suburbs of Quezon, Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, San Juan, Mandaluyong, Makati, Taguig, Las Pinas, Paranaque, Muntinlupa and Pasay are experiencing thunderstorms. Rains caused by the presence of Jelawat had also forced PAGASA to warn residents living in the vicinity of four major dams in Central Luzon to be on alert for flooding. PAGASA said the spill gates of the dams Angat and Ipo in Bulacan, Binga dam in Benguet, and Magat dam in Isabela; are continuously releasing water as their reservoirs breached the normal levels.

Meanwhile, the La Mesa dam in Novaliches in Quezon City has nearly reached operational level following days of being placed on red alert status. Better weather conditions had caused water levels to go down. La Mesa, where a portion of Metro Manila’s potable water comes from, is a major cause of flooding in the northwest portion of the metropolis, particularly Quezon City and the Caloocan, Malabon and Navotas areas. The dam is located downstream from the Tullahan River. Every year, the Philippines is visited by at least 20 powerful weather disturbances.

http://gulfnews.com/news/world/philippines/several-provinces-placed-on-storm-alert-1.1079676

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Jelawat has continued to strengthen, and is now a 120kt cat 4. Jelawat is forecast to become a cat 5, and looking at latest satellite imagery, it's not hard to see why.

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Jelawat has become the season's third super typhoon with sustained winds now at 130kts. Jelawat's central dense overcast is fairly small but the eye is very well defined. Jelawat still looks on course to become the season's second cat 5 as it moves northwards over the next day or so.

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'Lawin' reaches super-typhoon status, but no storm signals raised

September 24, 2012 1:10pm

Tropical cyclone Lawin (Jelawat) reached super-typhoon status as it continued to move northward before noon Monday, state weather forecasters said.

But PAGASA, in its 11 a.m. advisory, said no public storm warning signals were raised despite Lawin's increased strength. "Patuloy itong magdudulot ng ulan sa Visayas at Mindanao. May ulan din sa Western Visayas at Palawan sanhi ng paghila ni Lawin," PAGASA forecaster Nikos Peñaranda said in an interview on dzBB radio. He said there are no storm signals yet because Lawin is moving north, and is not likely to make landfall in one to two days. As of 10 a.m., PAGASA said Lawin was estimated at 405 km east of Virac, Catanduanes, with maximum sustained winds of 185 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 220 kph.

PAGASA forecaster Elvie Enriquez said in an earlier interview that PAGASA considers cyclones with winds of 185 kph and above as super-typhoons. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center's 9 a.m. update classified Lawin as a super typhoon. PAGASA's 11 a.m. advisory said Lawin was estimated to move north-northwest at 7 kph, and is expected to be 640 km east of Infanta, Quezon by Tuesday morning.

By Wednesday morning, it is expected to be 530 km east of Tuguegarao City. By Thursday morning, it is expected to be 430 km east of Calayan Island. It is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Friday, while it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon. PAGASA said Lawin may bring rainfall of 10 to 20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within its 700-km diameter. It added Lawin is enhancing the southwest monsoon, which will continue to bring moderate to heavy rain over Visayas and Mindanao.

Fishing boats and small seacraft were advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao due to big waves generated by Lawin. Japan Meteorological Agency, on the other hand, is monitoring another tropical depression outside the PAR. While it is not expected to enter PAR, the tropical depression is helping to influence Lawin's northward track.

http://www.gmanetwor...-signals-raised

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Jelawat underwent an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) overnight and this morning, which caused the system to weaken to 125kts. The EWRC is now complete and the eye is well defined again, and intensity is back up to 130kts. Super Typhoon Jelawat may still become a cat 5 over the next 24hrs before the northward track puts the cyclone into a less ideal environment for intensification. Taiwan, Okinawa and later South Korea and southwest Japan all need to closely watch Jelawat.

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Jelawat has attained cat 5 status this evening, with sustained winds currently at 140kts. As Jelawat has not long completed an EWRC, it is unlikely to have another yet, so the super typhoon may strengthen a little more tonight.

What a beauty!

post-1820-0-20096100-1348527212_thumb.jp

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She really is a gorgeous looking typhoon!

Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 7; Tropical Storm 19W (Ewiniar), # 1

By DAVE ORNAUER

Published: September 24, 2012

Noon Tuesday, Sept. 25, Japan time: Super now, not-so-super later.

Forecast models are slowly coming into agreement that Super Typhoon Jelawat will curve toward Okinawa after making a brief visit to Taiwan. The question being, how soon that curve will be and how powerful Jelawat will remain. It’s still a good five days away and the specifics are far from clear.

For the moment, Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects that Jelawat will have long ago shed its “super†status but remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it rapidly rolls past Okinawa early Sunday morning. The closest point of approach is projected for 9 miles west of Kadena at 4 a.m. when it will still be packing 80 mph sustained winds and 98 mph gusts.

All of this could change. Keep an eye on PST for the latest.

As for Tropical Storm Ewiniar, it is forecast to remain well off Japan’s east coast as it makes a zig-zag path north, some 250 miles southeast of Narita International Airport at 4 a.m. Saturday. Its forecast path has varied as well. We’ll keep an eyeball on it as well.

http://www.stripes.c...niar-1-1.190679

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Frigid Cloudtop Temperatures Indicate Strength in Super Typhoon Jelawat and Tropical Storm Ewinar

Tropical Storm Jelawat had been moving toward the Philippines since the week of Sept. 17 and on Sept. 24 it became a super typhoon east of the country. Meanwhile, the nineteenth tropical depression formed just east of Jelawat in the western North Pacific Ocean and quickly strengthened into a tropical storm. Both storms were captured on one infrared image from NASA's Aqua satellite.

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite revealed a large area of powerful thunderstorms around the center of Typhoon Jelawat and a band of thunderstorms west of the center on Sept. 23. Those thunderstorms continued to strengthen on Sept. 24 and cloud top temperatures exceeded -63 Fahrenheit (-52 Celsius). Cloud top temperatures are an indication of uplift in a storm. Uplift is the push of air upward that allows formation of towering clouds and thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone.

Jelawat's center continues to stay east of the Philippines, but is causing rough surf (with wave heights up to 37 feet/11.2 meters) along the eastern coasts of the country and its large extent is bringing rains and gusty winds as well.

Jelawat is a powerful Super Typhoon with a clear 23 nautical mile-wide eye and maximum sustained winds near 130 knots (149.6 mph/240.8 kmh).Jelawat is a Category 4 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is located near 15.0 North latitude and 127.9 East longitude, approximately 410 nautical miles (472 miles/759 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Jelawat's minimum central pressure is near 926 millibars. Jelawat is forecast to track to the northwest through the Philippine Sea and move toward Taiwan.

691054main_20120924-Jelawat-AIRS.jpg

The above infrared image of Tropical Storm Jelawat (top) was captured by the AIRS instrument aboard NASA's Aqua satellite. The image was taken on Sept. 24 and revealed that Typhoon Jelawat and Tropical Storm Ewinar had large areas of strong thunderstorms (purple) and heavy rainfall around the center of circulation. Credit: NASA JPL, Ed Olsen

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012-jelawat.html

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Jelawat is still a cat 5 with sustained winds of 140kts. The super typhoon maintains a well defined eye and a circular central dense overcast feature. Jelawat may maintain cat 5 status for another 12-18hrs before the environment begins to deteriorate. Ridging to the east will keep Jelawat tracking generally northwestwards over the next few days before a trough causes a break in the ridge allowing Jelawat to swing to the northeast. This track brings Jelawat dangerously close to Taiwan, then over Okinawa. Jelwat should be weakening at this stage as shear is forecast to rise.

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Jelawat has remained a powerful super typhoon but lost cat 5 status this morning as another eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) began. The EWRC is now complete and Jelawat is left with a larger but well defined eye. Intensity has reduced slightly to 130kts through the EWRC. Jelawat is expected to remain a super typhoon for the next 12-18hrs as the eye is stable and the upper level environment remains favourable. Beyond this time, shear is expected to rise, in turn reducing the excellent outflow Jelawat has benifitted from over the last few days. The track forecast has remained very similar to before.

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Sea warning issued for Super Typhoon Jelawat (update)

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Taipei, Sept. 27 The Central Weather Bureau issued a sea warning for Super Typhoon Jelawat on Thursday, saying the storm's impact on Taiwan could be greatest during the night. As of 5:00 p.m., Jelawat was centered about 380 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip of Eluanbi, moving in a north-northwesterly direction at a speed of 14 km per hour.

The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 191 kph, with gusts of up to 234 kph, the bureau said. Jelawat will be closest to Taiwan on Friday, then is expected to veer northeast along Taiwan’s east coast toward Japan, the bureau said. It warned residents of northern and eastern Taiwan to be on the alert for sudden downpours and flooding.

Heavy rainfall is forecast in Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan County, Yilan County and Hualien County, according to the weather bureau. Meanwhile, the effects of the storm were already being felt Thursday evening on Orchid Island off Taiwan’s southeast coast. Braced for winds of up to 200 kph, the entire island had lost power at around 6 p.m. and its airport was closed.

The bureau said it may also issue a land warning for Taiwan proper Thursday night, depending on whether the periphery of Jelawat is likely to reach land areas.

http://focustaiwan.t...ID=201209270036

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7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Ol’ Jelawat looks like it plans to remain a pesky little bugger as snakes its way east toward Okinawa after paying a brief visit to the Taiwan area. Things should get a bit hairy starting Saturday morning. Jelawat is forecast to roar just south of Kadena around 3 p.m. Saturday, with peak winds, 98-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts, forecast for mid-afternoon and things dying down sometime Saturday evening, forecasts project.

And Jelawat won’t stop there. Even as it loses its powerful punch while making a northeast beeline toward central Honshu, Jelawat is expected to continue packing severe tropical storm-strength winds, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts as it comes ashore over Hamanatsu long about mid-morning Monday. Might not be that mighty as it rumbles inland some 34 miles northwest of Yokota and 65 miles north of Yokosuka around mid-afternoon, but it should still be a wet, windy day in the Tokyo area.

Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to enter TCCOR 4 sometime Friday, if nothing else as a precaution.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 10 p.m. Friday.

-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, midnight Friday.

-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.

-- Maximum 98-mph sustained winds, 132-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.

-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 p.m. Saturday.

-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.

Ever the securocrat, Pacific Storm Tracker bids you to always err on the side of caution, or as the theme song of the old Mel Brooks comedy The Producers suggests: “Hope for the best, expect the worst.†Especially for those new to the island, never treat these things lightly, for if you do, Mr. Murphy of Murphy’s Law fame is likely to pitch tent in the living room of the house ill-prepared for a storm. Better to have too much and not need it than to have not enough and need it desperately.

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/super-typhoon-18w-jelawat-14-1.190944

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sep27_jelawat_modis.jpg

Impressive Super Typhoon Jelawat remains just below Category 5 strength, as it heads north-northwest a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan. The outer rain bands of the mighty typhoon are bringing heavy rains to the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island, and will spread over eastern Taiwan later today, as seen on Taiwan radar. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C. These warm waters do not extend to as great depth as they did when Jelawat was east of the Philippines, though. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 43 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move north-northwest and then north, with the center passing about 150 miles to the east of Taiwan on Friday. Jelawat will likely pass very close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 or 3 typhoon on Saturday, between 03 - 06 UTC. Jelawat could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm on Sunday. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Friday morning, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.

sep27_jelawat_radar.jpg

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2243

201218W.png

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Jelawat is a 100 miles southwest of Okinawa. Jelawat remains a robust typhoon with sustained winds still packing a punchy 105kts. Jelawat is now moving northeastwards and will hit Okinawa very soon and then go on to strike the Japanese mainland. Shear will rise and sea temps cool after passage through Okinawa, which means Jelawat will be considerably weaker by the time it reaches mainland Japan but it could still deliver flooding rains and high winds here.

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Light now...

Both Naha

http://www.mangohouse.jp/livecam.html

http://www.tomarin.c...ebcam/index.php

good webcams... Enjoy smile.png

My friend has lost leccy... did not lose leccy in the others... now talking to her on her phone signal... portable charger helps..

her portable wifi has gone... There goes me watching it live out of her window sad.png 2 years... and i should be out there.... then i would give good cuvarage :)

Kadebaairbase... no power... cars flipped on foster... and so on... flooding in kadena

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Typhoon Jelawat remains a formidable storm as it passes dangerously close to Taiwan on path towards Okinawa and then mainland Japan.

On Sunday, Jelawat became the second super typhoon to pass over the region in two weeks: Sanba was just there on September 13-14. While the western Pacific is no stranger to frequent typhoons, it is quite rare to have two consecutive super typhoons (a “super typhoon†is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph or greater).

After its meager beginnings as a tropical depression back on September 20, Jelawat reached a peak intensity of 160 mph on the 25th just east of the Philippines, but has weakened somewhat to its current intensity of 127 mph. Those wind speeds correspond to a Category 5 and high-end Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale, respectively (a typhoon and a hurricane are just different regional names for the same thing).

Fortunately for Taiwan, the storm recurved prior to reaching the island (the center passed within 200 miles of the coast), and the brunt of the rain and wind remained over the open ocean. But, now it’s heading northeast toward the Ryukyu Islands and then the main Japanese islands by the end of the weekend. Along the way, another direct hit on island of Okinawa appears likely.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects Jelawat to pass over Okinawa as formidable typhoon with maximum winds of 100 to 115 mph Saturday.

Aside from ground-based radar, the space-based equivalent is images taken of a storm at microwave wavelengths (very similar to conventional radars). Like their ground-based counterparts, they can “see†through the clouds and capture just the precipitation structure. These instruments are currently only on polar-orbiting satellites, and rely on occasional fortuitous overpasses as the satellite zips around the globe.

jelawat_microwave.jpg?uuid=1tgWnAl-EeKhDPpaJVqSWA

Microwave image of Jelawat taken at 3 a.m. EDT this morning. Yellows and reds indicate stronger thunderstorm activity. Also, note the concentric eyewalls! (NRL-Monterey)Sometimes the satellite passes directly over a storm and catches great images, and other times the swath completely misses or just catches the edge of a storm. Earlier this morning, the DMSP F15 satellite had a great overpass, giving a valuable big-picture snapshot of the storm’s structure.

Jelawat is forecast to reach mainland Japan as a low-end (category 1) typhoon Saturday night into Sunday. It is expected to make landfall on Honshu south of Tokyo

http://www.washingto...a9258_blog.html

jelawat-okinawa.jpg?uuid=1p-HMgl-EeKhDPpaJVqSWA

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