South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - September 15th 2012>

[Eskimo]

Sheets of cloud interrupting the sun and blue sky this afternoon, I keep having to get up every 5 minutes and adjust the blinds, why can't they make Reactolite office windows???

The expense of that would be blinding...think I made a pun inadvertently.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Coast]

.think I made a pun inadvertently.

Inadvertently??

[Eskimo]

Inadvertently??

Believe me Coast, it was an accident!

[Coast]

Believe me Coast, it was an accident!

It tickled me anyway!! :lol: At least I am having to deal with sunshine, could be worse.

[Coast]

Latest thoughts on Nadine, she may not be on her way here, but then again.....

Tropical Storm Nadine continues to churn towards the Azores Islands at 4 mph, where tropical storm warnings are up. Nadine brought sustained winds of 32 mph, gusting to 46 mph to Horta Castelo Branco in the Azores at 1:30 pm local time, and occasional heavy rain showers have affected most of the islands today. Nadine is a very large storm, as seen on visible satellite loops, and will affect the islands for at least three more days as it treks slowly to the southeast of the islands. On Thursday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and will convert to an extratropical storm. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; most of models predict that the two systems will merge, and the extratropical version of Nadine will move back to the west-southwest next week, where it could potentially become a tropical storm again. However, the GFS model predicts that Nadine and the upper-level low will remain separate, and extratropical storm Nadine will go on to hit Portugal and bring much-needed rain to the region on Monday. Much of Portugal and Spain are in moderate to severe drought, according to the Global Drought Monitor from the University College London.

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2235

[Bogman]

Met's view on it all, maybe:-

Chief Forecaster’s View

A chief forecaster's view has been issued for all regions for Sunday. The forecast for Sunday is very uncertain, but the balance of evidence favours relatively fine and dry weather across England and Wales, and also relatively small amounts of rain across much of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Edited September 19, 2012 by Bogman

[Coast]

Sustained winds whip up a little bit in The Channel on Sunday but nothing to write home about:

The North Sea has stronger winds:

Monday early hours sees it crank up a bit:

It is gusty though:

On shore for most of the day:

Then there's the rain:

[Lauren]

Well I for one, am not ready for winter yet. I haven't had enough sun yet.

Although I could be persudaded with the promise of some epic snow.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

In regards to Sunday...Little mini forecast

(GFS always loves to over cook low pressure systems I am told)

Pretty wet..Not a huge deluge but still quite a bit of rain...

Coast posted the wind speed charts already..And as mentioned won't be hugely windy but noticeable and strong on the coast as most of the day it will be on shore.

XCweather (I think that's the name) say the peak for the winds to be around 6-10PM ????

30-40MPH winds by the coast? Nothing major you guys must be pretty used to that...Have that in central London and it's like the end of the world

Anyway..Let's see what happens..Long way off and it's a complex situation as BBC have mentioned

[john pike]

be interesting to see what the fax chart shows tonight

i have given up looking at all the other runs for now

they keep changing every run

tomorrow

mainly dry but still chilly in the breeze

slim chance of a shower east anglia way

should feel a tad warmer friday

showers building lunchtime onwards

far south probably wlll not see showers until evening

still looks the best day saturday

dry sunny and high teen temperatures

sunday shows the low pressure further south

will be breezy and should stay dry until afternoon

evening time could be very wet and windy

monday shows the low pressure to our north

still windy and there will be heavy rain clearing by the afternoon

mid teen temperatures again

raw fax shows the low come back south again

http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents

i think nadine is having a holiday in the atlantic

at present

[Mark Neal.]

Sunday looking like a washout, considering we have only had 4mm of rain this month, it would be welcome relief i guess..

[Biggin]

Has Mr Pike got any idea when the first frosts will appear in our area?? I have some of my dear mums plants to look after

[john pike]

hi biggin

the nearest thing to a frost is here

any frost hollows could see temperatures close to freezing

however due to the stormy and wet weather coming in i reckon

frosts will not be a problem until the 2nd week in october

[john pike]

22nd onwards

one word wet

nothing cold showing yet

give it a week and watch the end of fi drop in temperatures

[Steve C]

Sunday looking like a washout, considering we have only had 4mm of rain this month, it would be welcome relief i guess..

I agree. We've not had much rain in my location since late July. Pity it's at the weekend, but there you go.

[Steve C]

Morning all. Looks cloudy here, just waiting for sunrise!

[Coast]

Morning Steve, morning all,

Partially cloudy but the sun is rising and I hope will bring a bit of brightness and warmth through the day. The weekend is not looking that special unfortunately as there is so much still to do outside.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Not quite such a chilly night here last night due to cloud cover but it's not a very nice start to the day here, very dull and drab - I'm not sure I'm going to get through the weekend without putting the heating on now it's getting harder to get out of bed in the mornings when it's dark and cold !

Have a lovely Thursday ......

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hi biggin

the nearest thing to a frost is here

any frost hollows could see temperatures close to freezing

however due to the stormy and wet weather coming in i reckon

frosts will not be a problem until the 2nd week in october

Odd to see East Europe with such high temperatures this time of year? 0.0

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=4;ct=10071~Egham;sess=#forecast that's quite a lot of rain if that pulled off...Imagine if it was accompanied by below freezing temps

1mm of rain = 1cm of snow Approx...

That would means Sunday would bring..Around..40cm of snow..AHHHH one day maybe..

[Coast]

I don't think Nadine herself will have an adverse effect on us in the UK:

[Snowangel-MK]

I don't think Nadine will have an adverse effect on us in the UK:

No...but looks like she could spawn a child......

http://forum.netweat...ghts-on-the-uk/

[Coast]

No...but looks like she could spawn a child......

Nadine has tracked more eastward than northward in the last 24 hours than previously thought...which requires me to adjust my forecast track in Figure 1 more southward than the previous. With that said...I am still more north (or left) of the NHC forecast. One reason is that the latest infrared loop shows the swirl center of Nadine tracking faster to the north than the current NHC forecast. Second...I think Nadine will wiggle NW in the next 12 hrs toward a low-level ridge weakness associated with what is now the 1005 mb low in paragraph P3. As the weakness passes by to the north between 12 and 24 hrs...I believe Nadine will then wiggle back NE while trying to link with that weakness.

The aforementioned 1005 mb system and its upper trough approach Nadine while decomposing into two upper vortices...thanks to strong and deep-layered ridge developing in warm air advection ahead of the paragraph P2 weather system. The first is a cut-off deep-layered vortex west of Nadine (which could become a subtropical cyclone as mentioned in the intro of this full discussion). The second is a gradually developing upper vortex to the north. Tonight's 00Z GFS shows this developing upper vortex sliding SE in a way that puts Nadine in its SW side as opposed to its south side...and therefore I show a more SE track for the longer-term as opposed to a straight east track like I showed earlier. The 00Z GFS still shows the developing upper vortex supporting a new surface non-tropical cyclone to the NE of Nadine that could ultimately absorb what is left of Nadine later on.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=202

[Steve C]

No...but looks like she could spawn a child......

http://forum.netweat...ghts-on-the-uk/

Yes, on the BBC Essex forecast, on the way into work, they mentioned the depression, which may affect us on Sunday, would have tropical air associated with 'Nadine' and could bring at least 1-2 inches of rain! I don't know whether the word 'least' was a slip of the tongue though. Watching forecasts will be interesting over the next couple of days for sure.

[Coast]

There certainly is plenty of rain coming!

Gone by late afternoon, but it will be soaking by then anyway