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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Kristy

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The eleventh tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. The circulation is still a little broad, but, for the next 48hrs at least, conditions are expected to be favourable for intensification. After this time, on the typical west-northwesterly track, shear will increase and sea temps will cool, inducing weakening. NHC forecast a peak of 50kts before this occurs.

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The depression has intensified this evening and sustained winds have reached 40kts. Therefore, 11E is now Tropical Storm Kristy. Kristy still has 36-48hrs in which to strengthen, and may approach hurricane strength before weakening occurs, but Kristy will more likely peak at high end tropical storm strength.

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Looks to be heading away from land largely:

201211E_7G.png

Tropical Storm KRISTY: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

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Kristy has strengthened slightly to 45kts, but the storm is now being impacted by shear, far earlier than expected. The shear has left Kristy's LLC partially exposed this evening. Shear is expected to ease in a day or so, but by this time Kristy will be moving over colder water. Unless shear drops sooner, Kristy has likely peaked intensity wise.

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Kristy peaked at 50kts. The storm is now moving over waters cooler than 26C, and Kristy has weakened accordingly to 40kts. Shear has eased, so Kristy is weakening slowly. As Kristy turns to the north west of Baja California however, sea temps will sharply decrease forcing Kristy to degenerate into a remnant low by late tomorrow.

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025032W5_NL_sm.gif

025032P_sm.gif

201211E.png

201211E_4F.png

Tropical Storm KRISTY: Probability of tropical storm winds to 45 hours lead

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Kristy is hanging in there this evening. Sustained winds have only fallen to 35kts, and some patchy convection stubbornly clings to the centre. Kristy cannot survive much longer however as the storm moves further north into even colder waters west of Baja California.

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Kristy has degenerated into a remnant low this afternoon. All that's left is a convectionless swirl of low clouds. Regeneration is not expected.

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