Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Kristy

Recommended Posts

The eleventh tropical depression of the East Pacific season has formed south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Intensity is 30kts. The circulation is still a little broad, but, for the next 48hrs at least, conditions are expected to be favourable for intensification. After this time, on the typical west-northwesterly track, shear will increase and sea temps will cool, inducing weakening. NHC forecast a peak of 50kts before this occurs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The depression has intensified this evening and sustained winds have reached 40kts. Therefore, 11E is now Tropical Storm Kristy. Kristy still has 36-48hrs in which to strengthen, and may approach hurricane strength before weakening occurs, but Kristy will more likely peak at high end tropical storm strength.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks to be heading away from land largely:

201211E_7G.png

Tropical Storm KRISTY: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kristy has strengthened slightly to 45kts, but the storm is now being impacted by shear, far earlier than expected. The shear has left Kristy's LLC partially exposed this evening. Shear is expected to ease in a day or so, but by this time Kristy will be moving over colder water. Unless shear drops sooner, Kristy has likely peaked intensity wise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kristy peaked at 50kts. The storm is now moving over waters cooler than 26C, and Kristy has weakened accordingly to 40kts. Shear has eased, so Kristy is weakening slowly. As Kristy turns to the north west of Baja California however, sea temps will sharply decrease forcing Kristy to degenerate into a remnant low by late tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

025032W5_NL_sm.gif

025032P_sm.gif

201211E.png

201211E_4F.png

Tropical Storm KRISTY: Probability of tropical storm winds to 45 hours lead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kristy is hanging in there this evening. Sustained winds have only fallen to 35kts, and some patchy convection stubbornly clings to the centre. Kristy cannot survive much longer however as the storm moves further north into even colder waters west of Baja California.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kristy has degenerated into a remnant low this afternoon. All that's left is a convectionless swirl of low clouds. Regeneration is not expected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Somerset Squall
      TD 18E has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite disorganised, with more than one LLCC associated with the convective mass. The depression is drifting northwestwards but should turn north then northeast soon as a trough approaches from the west and recurves 18E. The resultant track will bring 18E close to the southern tip of Baja California but ultimately a landfall on the coast of Mexico, north of Mazatlan. Based on the disorganised state of the depression, significant strengthening is not expected. The depression should become a weak tropical storm before waters cool and and shear rises along track.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      Tropical Storm Raymond has formed in the east of the basin, off the south coast of Mexico. The storm is set to take an unusual path and drift northeast towards the coast of Mexico into a weakness in the ridge to the north. The ridging is expected to build back in in a few days time, which may cause Raymond to turn back west away from the coast. There are large uncertainties however, as a later turn west would mean that Raymond makes landfall. Conditions are favourable for intensification, with low shear and warm sea temps in the area. Regardless of what happens with track, portions of Mexico are in for, yet again, some high rainfall totals and flooding this week.
       

       
       
       
       
    • By Somerset Squall
      An area of low pressure to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Octave and well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, with winds of 35kts. Priscilla is being sheared, partly to do with it's proximity to Tropical Storm Octave. The LLCC is located on the northeastern edge of an area of very intense convection. Despite the shear, Priscilla should still strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so. In a couple days time, shear will ease as Octave weakens, but Priscilla will be over cooler water by then, causing weakening.
       
      A ridge to the east over Mexico will push Priscilla north-northeast over the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is forecast to break down, and weakening Priscilla will be left to veer towards the west in the low level flow whilst it dissipates.
    • By Somerset Squall
      Tropical Depression 15E formed overnight, directly south of the southern tip of Baja California. Since, it has strengthened, and become Tropical Storm Octave, with winds of 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC, with bands wrapping into the north and south quadrants. There is not a huge amount of covection over the LLCC, but the convection from the bands should rectify this soon. Octave has about another 24 hours over warm water and under low shear. Octave is expected to intensify a little more before shear increases significantly and waters cool along track. This should bring about a swift weakening, and dissipation shortly after.
       
      Octave is currently moving to the northwest. A turn to the north then northeast towards Baja California is expected as an upper level low causes a weakness in the steering ridge. As shear and cooler waters await Octave west of Baja California, Octave should not reach here as a tropical storm, or even a tropical depression for that matter, but will increase rainfall here in a few days time.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      After a lull lasting over two weeks, Tropical Storm Narda has formed in the East Pacific. The storm is located at around 13N 120W, well out to sea. Winds have increased to 40kts. Narda has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC, and some fairly strong banding features. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm over the next few days, Narda is expected to become a hurricane. Based on the structure of Narda and the favourable environment ahead, NHC's forecast peak of 70kts could be a little conservative, though based on the behaviour of the previous storms in this basin this year, it may well be near. Narda will not affect land as it takes a typical west-northwestward track over the coming days. In a few days time, shear will rise significantly and the storm will move over colder water, which will quickly weaken Narda. As the storm weakens, it will slow down and crawl towards the west as the steering currents are expected to collapse.
       


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×