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Arctic Ice Data And Stats.


pottyprof

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to June 3rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,858,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -672,000km2, an increase from -612,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -179,000km2, an increase from -126,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 7th lowest last week.

BeQQoMX.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -60.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -51.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -52.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -52.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -75.5k/day.

9dVFW8V.png

The extent loss so far this June is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 98.7k/day is required (more than -99.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.9k/day (less than 26.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 53.3k/day (50.5k/day with single day values).

KiKHMUn.png

The extent loss in May was the 12th smallest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.

RKYvoe4.png 27f2bWl.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to June 10th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 11,371,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,234,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -792,000km2, an increase from -672,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -136,000km2, a decrease from -179,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

o8PDIY5.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -69.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -52.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -75.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -46.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -82.6k/day.

scEXVgp.png

The extent loss so far this June is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 109.0k/day is required (more than -113.4k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 17.5k/day (less than 11.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.6k/day (45.3k/day with single day values).

n1adnAC.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to June 17th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,780,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,605,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,061,000km2, an increase from -792,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -150,000km2, an increase from -136,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

q2pqbo6.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -84.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -46.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -82.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -59.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -78.1k/day.

7k7Ks0r.png

The extent loss so far this June is the 2nd largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 122.1k/day is required (more than -128.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 18.7k/day (at least 38.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 27.8k/day (16.9k/day with single day values).

50iYTsj.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to June 24th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 10,214,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,034,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,213,000km2, an increase from -1,061,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -169,000km2, an increase from -150,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

YJ5uCuF.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -80.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -59.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -78.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -69.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -100.2k/day.

FfS1cNA.png

The extent loss so far this June is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 170.1k/day is required (more than -210.2k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 134.8k/day (at least 247.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 32.4k/day (96.2k/day with single day values).

Tu3KZEp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to July 1st

The current 5 day trailing average is on 9,521,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,244,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,420,000km2, an increase from -1,213,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -160,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

Iy9I0ak.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -98.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -69.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -100.2k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -88.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -131.5k/day.

Dqnpjx7.png

The extent loss so far this July is the 4th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 113.6k/day is required (more than -111.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 63.3k/day (less than 58.0k/day with single day values) and an average loss a drop of 85.2k/day (81.4k/day with single day values).

Vnl6nvF.png

The extent loss in June was the 4th smallest on record while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.

ELydFbR.png 9xAs3Mr.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to July 7th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,824,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,681,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,498,000km2, an increase from -1,420,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from -169,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.

iZ7dayR.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -88.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -131.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.6k/day.

UcjL5m7.png

The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 117.9k/day is required (more than -122.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 52.3k/day (less than 50.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 80.8k/day (81.7k/day with single day values).

hCvfMzR.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A double update today, as I've been away the last week or so.

Update for the week to July 15th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 8,114,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,857,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,638,000km2, an increase from -1,498,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +134,000km2, an increase from +63,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.

59umopq.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -101.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -81.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -111.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -89.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -90.9k/day.

IevnOsj.png

The extent loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 125.0k/day is required (more than -124.4k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 30.8k/day (less than 16.8k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 71.8k/day (63.7k/day with single day values).

brYF5GN.png

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to July 22nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,417,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,289,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,710,000km2, an increase from -1,638,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +74,000km2, a decrease from +134,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.

2z3nbuQ.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -99.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -89.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -90.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -87.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -81.6k/day.

XYU7cAn.png

The extent loss so far this July is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 144.7k/day is required (more than -167.6k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of over 22.7k/day (over 47.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 50.1k/day (46.2k/day with single day values).

xQNGwDu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to July 29th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 7,417,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,289,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,540,000km2, a decrease from -1,710,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +205,000km2, an increase from +134,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.

pORi7Fi.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -62.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -87.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -81.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -81.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -73.0k/day.

QcP0SsT.png

The extent loss so far this July is the 15th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 431.0k/day is required (more than -1,209.5k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of over 322.0k/day (over 1,303.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 5.7k/day (an increase of 208.0k/day with single day values).

pT1lJr9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to August 5th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 6,268,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,146,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,679,000km2, an increase from -1,540,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +7,000km2, a decrease from +205,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.

wpMZAa6.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -101.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -81.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -73.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -67.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -104.1k/day.

JlTd8BG.png

The extent loss so far this August is the 3rd largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 86.2k/day is required (more than 88.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 27.3k/day (less than 24.3k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 47.8k/day (46.7k/day with single day values).

aJtPKOR.png

The extent loss in July was the 15th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.

9i0lMrc.png pNnKuu9.png

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

(Hi all. Apologies for the break in updates. I'll try to get everything up to date during the week)

Update for the week to August 12th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,687,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,457,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,790,000km2, an increase from -1,679,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +229,000km2, an increase from +7,000km2 last week. We're currently 3rd lowest on record, the same as last week.

VdV4U3D.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -83.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -67.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -104.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -54.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -70.9k/day.

iOjiul9.png

The extent loss so far this August is the 6th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 87.5k/day is required (more than 85.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires a drop of less than 6.8k/day (increase of at least 6.1k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 34.8k/day (25.7k/day with single day values).

GCCxa6W.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to August 19th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,315,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,284,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,779,000km2, a decrease from -1,790,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +278,000km2, an increase from +154,000km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from 3rd lowest last week.

BVZE8wk.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -54.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -70.9k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -46.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -62.6k/day.

fpVeQaI.png

The extent loss so far this August is the 9th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 107.5k/day is required (more than 112.4.3k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 20.4k/day (increase of at least 24.6k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 24.1k/day (23.1k/day with single day values).

cN9papp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

(some of the values above are wrong, but the edit button disappeared to soon for me to change them)

Update for the week to August 26th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 5,020,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,913,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,751,000km2, a decrease from -1,779,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +421,000km2, an increase from +278,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.

lnDSqle.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -42.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -46.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -62.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -37.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -46.3k/day.

thxAm4f.png

The extent loss so far this August is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 198.9k/day is required (more than 295.8k/day with single day values), while the smallest loss requires an increase of at least 107.7k/day (increase of at least 215.2k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires an increase of 1.1k/day (37.5k/day with single day values).

Ju5BWwD.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to September 2nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,873,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,791,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,620,000km2, a decrease from -1,751,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +598,000km2, an increase from +421,000km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.

rMHC9O3.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -21.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -46.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -26.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -31.8k/day.

FEPugZ2.png

The extent change so far this September is the 14th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 28.7k/day is required (more than 34.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 9.8k/day (drop of at least 7.4k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 8.1k/day (11.9k/day with single day values).

lYQ1i3f.png

The extent loss in August was the 16th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.

lZidlGz.png f2AJ4Rm.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Update for the week to September 2nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,873,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,791,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,620,000km2, a decrease from -1,751,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +598,000km2, an increase from +421,000km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.

rMHC9O3.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -21.1k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -46.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -26.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -31.8k/day.

FEPugZ2.png

The extent change so far this September is the 14th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 28.7k/day is required (more than 34.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 9.8k/day (drop of at least 7.4k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 8.1k/day (11.9k/day with single day values).

lYQ1i3f.png

The extent loss in August was the 16th largest on record while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.

lZidlGz.png B

BFTV..

Thanks for the catch up effort.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to September 9th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,668,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,641,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,641,000km2, an increase from -1,620,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +616,000km2, an increase from +598,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 6th lowest last week.

x6HojjI.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -29.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -26.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -31.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -4.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -5.0k/day.

EwVcJzo.png

The extent change so far this September is the 19th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 48.0k/day is required (more than 54.5k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 3.3k/day (drop of at least 2.2k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 20.6k/day (24.2k/day with single day values).

nlFS2pC.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to September 16th

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,655,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,677,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,625,000km2, a decrease from -1,641,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +638,000km2, an increase from +616,000km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.

nCPT4B6.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -1.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -4.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -5.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +17.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +16.3k/day.

dO0GpHO.png

The extent change so far this September is the 18th most negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 72.9k/day is required (more than 83.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 4.0k/day (drop of at least -6.3k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 31.8k/day (35.3k/day with single day values).

mJUIQg9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Update for the week to September 23rd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 4,814,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 4,839,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,589,000km2, a decrease from -1,625,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +683,000km2, an increase from +638,000km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th lowest last week.

AKSqbtH.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +22.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +17.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +16.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +43.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +29.9k/day.

e9IqpF2.png

The extent change so far this September is the 20th least negative on record. To achieve the largest growth, an increase of at least 123.0k/day is required (more than 167.2k/day with single day values), while the largest loss requires a drop of at least 30.6k/day (drop of at least -47.7k/day with single day values) and an average change requires an increase of 40.8k/day (52.2k/day with single day values).

EPsSKkY.png

The 5 day average value of 4,635,000km2 from the 13th is likely to be the minimum for the year.
This is the 8
th lowest on record.

ifTI3hi.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

A very recent scientific paper (published Sept 24th 2018) and titled "Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons" provides some worrying quantification of the impact of warming in the Arctic. Here are some of the main conclusions:

  • Ice cover has not only retreated in its areal extent, it has also become much younger and thinner in recent years. In April 2018, only about 2% of the winter sea-ice cover consisted of sea ice older than 5 years, compared to almost 30% of the April sea-ice cover in 1984.
     
  • Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade. Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up.
     
  • The primary cause of the ongoing changes in all months are anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with a clear linear relationship between sea ice loss and cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions in all months.
     
  • Extrapolating the linear relationships into the future, we find that the Arctic Ocean completely loses its ice cover throughout August and September for an additional roughly 800 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we estimate the Arctic to become sea-ice free from July throughout October.

I've been active over the summer months helping build a Research Portal over on the American weather forum 33andrain. You can find the abstract and link to the above paper here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1422-changing-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-across-all-seasons/

And there are many other papers in the Research Portal about Arctic Amplification (Warming) and Sea Ice Loss, so please feel free to take a look. The Index to the research facility is here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/996-index-to-papers-and-articles/

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
37 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

A very recent scientific paper (published Sept 24th 2018) and titled "Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons" provides some worrying quantification of the impact of warming in the Arctic. Here are some of the main conclusions:

  • Ice cover has not only retreated in its areal extent, it has also become much younger and thinner in recent years. In April 2018, only about 2% of the winter sea-ice cover consisted of sea ice older than 5 years, compared to almost 30% of the April sea-ice cover in 1984.
     
  • Accelerated sea ice loss during all months of the year is additionally driven by a lengthening of the melt season. As assessed for the Arctic as a whole through April 2018, melt onset is occurring 3 days earlier per decade, and freeze-up is happening 7 days later per decade. Over the 40 year long satellite record, this amounts to a 12 day earlier melt onset and a 28 day later freeze-up.
     
  • The primary cause of the ongoing changes in all months are anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with a clear linear relationship between sea ice loss and cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions in all months.
     
  • Extrapolating the linear relationships into the future, we find that the Arctic Ocean completely loses its ice cover throughout August and September for an additional roughly 800 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. For an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we estimate the Arctic to become sea-ice free from July throughout October.

I've been active over the summer months helping build a Research Portal over on the American weather forum 33andrain. You can find the abstract and link to the above paper here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1422-changing-state-of-arctic-sea-ice-across-all-seasons/

And there are many other papers in the Research Portal about Arctic Amplification (Warming) and Sea Ice Loss, so please feel free to take a look. The Index to the research facility is here: https://www.33andrain.com/topic/996-index-to-papers-and-articles/

Is there a link to the "data" without having to sign up to anything?

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
7 minutes ago, Rambo said:

Is there a link to the "data" without having to sign up to anything?

Hi Rambo. You could follow the links in my post, but to save you time & trouble here is the direct link to the full paper (free access) that contains all the charts and tables:

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56#erlaade56s6

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Rambo. You could follow the links in my post, but to save you time & trouble here is the direct link to the full paper (free access) that contains all the charts and tables:

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56#erlaade56s6

Thanks for that link, although as I said, "without signing up to anything" so your previous links were no good to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
12 hours ago, Rambo said:

Thanks for that link, although as I said, "without signing up to anything" so your previous links were no good to me.

Hi Rambo. I've checked it out and you're right, the links required joining 33andrain to access the papers. This wasn't intended so apologies to you and others who may have followed the links but not wished to join the forum. I'm discussing the matter with the 33andrain owners and hope to get a satisfactory conclusion to the matter that will allow non-members limited access to the research library (it's currently got over 450 papers in it and that's growing rapidly).

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Rambo. I've checked it out and you're right, the links required joining 33andrain to access the papers. This wasn't intended so apologies to you and others who may have followed the links but not wished to join the forum. I'm discussing the matter with the 33andrain owners and hope to get a satisfactory conclusion to the matter that will allow non-members limited access to the research library (it's currently got over 450 papers in it and that's growing rapidly).

Just to update the above.... the 'guest facility' on 33andrain had been inadvertently turned off. It's now back on and guests are allowed to visit 10 different pages in a 24 hour period. After that you can either register (which is painless and obligation free and you are then a member with full access) or wait 24 hours.

Thanks and sorry to have cluttered the thread.

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