Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Nouska]

Yes it will particularly when you consider the Nov.-March composite anomaly for El Nino.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/compare/

 

A picture that is reflected in all the long range forecasts for the coming winter!.... eg

 

 

What will be interesting is if the subject matter of this thread has anything to say differently. We know, in recent years, things haven't always gone to the analogue/teleconnection plan - numerous factors have been examined as the culprit - ice loss at the top of the list currently.

[Midlands Ice Age]

A picture that is reflected in all the long range forecasts for the coming winter!.... eg

 

 

What will be interesting is if the subject matter of this thread has anything to say differently. We know, in recent years, things haven't always gone to the analogue/teleconnection plan - numerous factors have been examined as the culprit - ice loss at the top of the list currently.

Intersting spot Nouska.

It matches peefectly apart from the good ol'USA and Canada!!

It looks to be set on fire!!

Presumably because of a lack of Arctic outbreaks over there.

It sure will be something to watch out for, as it will be widely touted around.

MIA

Edited August 10, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[Paul]

They're heights, not temps MIA

[stewfox]

 

 

Your comments on wind patterns aren't worth replying to in detail. Dismissing as just "a theory, nothing more" 

 

Furthermore, the only season is which there is a significant trend in the westerlies is austral summer. There is a weak positive trend in fall, but both spring and winter shows no trend; the SAM trends i - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/#sthash.JXe4A3ij.dpuf

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

 

Lets leave that there.

 

 

I fully expect to see further cold incursions this winter but will they stay in North America or head our way ?

[Midlands Ice Age]

They're heights, not temps MIA

Upsee daisy,

I didn't enlarge the map and so just saw SST's at the top so I assumed they were temp anomalies of some sort.

Thank god really, as I could have seen a mass immigration from Florida and particularly California to the Quebec area this winter!!

LOL

But surely in that case it will tend to pull a lot of colder air down into the Atlantic (again), this time from Iceland/Greenland area, into the easterm seabord of the USA.

MIA

Edited August 10, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[BornFromTheVoid]

Furthermore, the only season is which there is a significant trend in the westerlies is austral summer. There is a weak positive trend in fall, but both spring and winter shows no trend; the SAM trends i - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/#sthash.JXe4A3ij.dpuf

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

 

Lets leave that there.

 

 

I fully expect to see further cold incursions this winter but will they stay in North America or head our way ?

 

If you read for just a little bit more...

 

But when you look at the transient response to changes in the circumpolar winds, as Marshall et al (2014) have done, it turns out that two important things happen. The winds tend to push the sea ice boundary northward, as we would have expected. But the winds push the surface ocean northward too, and cause a slow rise in the isopycnal surfaces (surfaces of constant density). This brings relatively warm deep water closer to the surface, eventually melting sea ice after a period of a few decades, countering the initial increase in sea ice. These results explain why equilibrium model calculations find sea ice decreasing in response to ozone forced changes in the circumpolar winds, and also why observations show the opposite. Not enough time has passed for the equilibrium response to be manifested. These results suggest that some time in the next few decades, there will reverse, and average sea ice will begin to decline.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Upsee daisy,

I didn't enlarge the map and so just saw SST's at the top so I assumed they were temp anomalies of some sort.

Thank god really, as I could have seen a mass immigration from Florida and particularly California to the Quebec area this winter!!

LOL

But surely in that case it will tend to pull a lot of colder air down into the Atlantic (again), this time from Iceland/Greenland area, into the easterm seabord of the USA.

MIA

 

That particular forecast would see a tendency north westerlies into the Atlantic and over us. The eastern seaboard of the US would see more easterlies off the Atlantic.

I think one of the more striking features is the disappearance of the ridge off the western North American coast (the one that's been causing the droughts and recording breaking heat), and the change to a deep trough.

[knocker]

And looking at El Nino just a few slight adjustments could gives us wet and windy and maybe above average temps.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

If we detrend the annual Arctic sea ice minimum values since 1979, then make a SLP anomaly composite of all the following winters, we get the chart below:

 

 

Doing the same but with the above average values, we get the following:

 

 

That would seem to indicate a pretty clear influence anyway

[Nouska]

Some new research on ice melt in both hemispheres.

 

http://csas.ei.columbia.edu/2015/09/21/predictions-implicit-in-ice-melt-paper-and-global-implications/#_ftnref1

 

The full paper is only a few pages short of a library - you'll need a few coffees for this one!

 

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf

[solarcycle]

What would be the effects on the European climate if Arctic sea ice reached record high extents like Antarctica has experienced recently?

[BornFromTheVoid]

What would be the effects on the European climate if Arctic sea ice reached record high extents like Antarctica has experienced recently?

 

It's not an easy question, and any answers would be mostly guess work.

 

To give an idea of just how much ice we could have up north, take a look at the image below

 

 

If we were to stick another million km2 on to that, we could well have sea ice down toward Scandinavia or Iceland. That would certainly make our northerlies much more potent.

But really, it's hard to say what effect it might have. If you look at the southern hemisphere, we don't see Australia, New Zealand, South Africa or South America getting more unusual cold due to the extra ice.

 

If the AMOC slows down significantly though, who knows how far south the sea ice might creep in winter?

[phil nw.]

It's not an easy question, and any answers would be mostly guess work.

 

To give an idea of just how much ice we could have up north, take a look at the image below

 

 

If we were to stick another million km2 on to that, we could well have sea ice down toward Scandinavia or Iceland. That would certainly make our northerlies much more potent.

But really, it's hard to say what effect it might have. If you look at the southern hemisphere, we don't see Australia, New Zealand, South Africa or South America getting more unusual cold due to the extra ice.

 

If the AMOC slows down significantly though, who knows how far south the sea ice might creep in winter?

 

I am sure there is a lot of truth in that BFTV- wrt greater ice cover meaning colder northerlies years ago in Winter.

From memory, when i was but a young lad in the 60's, i recall northerlies being colder.

I seem to remember occasional ice bridges forming in late winter between Iceland and Greenland when the southern limit of the pack Ice almost reached the North coast of Iceland.

Looking back through the archives here's an example of a bitter cyclonic northerly in February 1969

 

we can see how much colder the Arctic plunge was compared to what we seem to get these days.I mean -12c uppers across the UK right down to the south from an Arctic Maritime northerly -unheard of now.

[stewfox]

I am sure there is a lot of truth in that BFTV- wrt greater ice cover meaning colder northerlies years ago in Winter.

 

I seem to remember occasional ice bridges forming in late winter between Iceland and Greenland when the southern limit of the pack Ice almost reached the North coast of Iceland.

 

 

Re ice bridge I think 1976 was the last time this happened but cant seem to  find the link after a quick search.

 

Well over due a bitter winter up there

Edited September 24, 2015 by stewfox

[phil nw.]

Re ice bridge I think 1976 was the last time this happened but cant seem to  find the link after a quick search.

 

Well over due a bitter winter up there

Yes difficult to find anything specifically on the ice bridge Stew.

I found this graph which does highlight the 60's peak of ice extent-at least in recent times -taken from the Hadley records. 

 

slightly out of date but for this purpose does underline the reason why northerlies packed more of a punch back then.

Edited September 24, 2015 by phil nw.

[Methuselah]

My old thread seems to be gathering some relevance at last...Might be better to fill this up than to cause ice-related mayhem in the MOD thread?

[stewfox]

On 27/10/2016 at 18:46, Ed Stone said:

My old thread seems to be gathering some relevance at last...Might be better to fill this up than to cause ice-related mayhem in the MOD thread?

In need I'm surprised there isn't more research/comment re the current record low ice cover (for time of year) and impact (if any) on weather systems.

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean

A look at possible consequences as we move toward the B.O.E. From my first read through I can see some of these impacts already establishing across the northern Hemisphere. This is going to be very messy for all of us!!!

[Yarmy]

45 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean

A look at possible consequences as we move toward the B.O.E. From my first read through I can see some of these impacts already establishing across the northern Hemisphere. This is going to be very messy for all of us!!!

Indeed, you sense that this year is a step change that will long be remembered.

 

(found this retweeted by Ant Masiello)

[BornFromTheVoid]

4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Indeed, you sense that this year is a step change that will long be remembered.

 

(found this retweeted by Ant Masiello)

The guy making those graphs is posting them on the sea ice forum too.

[knocker]

On 10/28/2016 at 20:22, stewfox said:

In need I'm surprised there isn't more research/comment re the current record low ice cover (for time of year) and impact (if any) on weather systems.

 

 

There was a recent paper which i posted in new research

Arctic amplification: does it impact the polar jet stream?

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/32330

[Gray-Wolf]

I do not think that , come winters end, there will be much doubt as just what impacts A.A. brings with it? With the DMI80N still looking like a graph in the wrong pile surely if we are to see impacts of low ice/high temp Arctic it will be this year? The reluctance of the PV to form and the early Autumn AO neg is already having impact with parts of Siberia recieving 5 months snow over the month of October whilst the U.S. is setting records for 'latests first freeze' .....

[Nouska]

I don't think this paper has been posted in here. They look in a bit more detail at each summer month with regard to atmospheric patterns and corresponding ice melt.

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/30911652.pdf

Not a very promising prospect for UK summers if they have got this right.

[Methuselah]

Interesting article here from John Hammond: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38195721

[Methuselah]

Given that we are inline for a near-record amount of Arctic ice-melt, maybe it's time to resurrect this ancient thread...? I'm thinking that we might experience some unusual weather, here in Blighty, come late November or December?

But, whether we do, or whether we don't, the coming winter ought to be a good test of the hypothesis that suggests an anomalously warm Arctic (following an anomalously high amount of summertime ice-melting) should cause high-pressure systems to dominate the Arctic, resulting in a negative Arctic Oscillation, and thus allowing cold air to penetrate middle latitudes...?

What's the use of an hypothesis, if it cannae be tested?