Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hamburgers, hmmm, yes. I used to call them Mc Murder burgers?

 

As a farmer you know how much 'Fossil fuel' goes into a burger? From the machinery needed to service the land, to fertilisers to pharm products to transport to slaughter house to factory costs to produce the burger to distribution and storage to purchase. Better off with a home caught grasshopper eh?

 

New cars? You have to make them and get to the point of sale but 'using them' is probably a lot cleaner?

Edited June 7, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

A little bump for this thread.

 

Still no one seeing a different year from those we saw post 07' since the drops of last year?

 

Have we seen a different summer in the UK?

 

Has the distribution of 'stuck weather' around the N.Hemisphere altered?

 

Do we see alterations to the pattern of Arctic Sea Ice melt this year?

 

Have we seen a Hurricane season similar to those post 07'?

[stewfox]

A little bump for this thread.

 

Still no one seeing a different year from those we saw post 07' since the drops of last year?

 

Have we seen a different summer in the UK?

 

Has the distribution of 'stuck weather' around the N.Hemisphere altered?

 

Do we see alterations to the pattern of Arctic Sea Ice melt this year?

 

Have we seen a Hurricane season similar to those post 07'?

 

 

I don't think there is one causal link to any 'weather change' but it would be interesting to see if there is any data supporting an increase in 'stuck weather patterns' over the last few years within the Northern Hemisphere.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not looking for a definitive, single cause, to our climates flavour stew ? I do not think that any one 'driver' is powerful enough to over-write our 'natural' drivers/cycles but , in the same way as the ENSO forcing's, a driver powerful enough to add a certain 'flavour' to the weather events we see across the northern hemisphere?

 

Post 07' we saw certain weather patterns becoming more 'frequent' across the N. Hemisphere's weather year and some of those ( like the UK summer?) and I'm looking to see if those weather event's altered post the 2012 record low in the way we saw changes post the 07' record low.

 

We know the atmosphere is holding more moisture than it used to so we ought to expect more extreme rain/snow events it is the 'distribution' (linked to jet patterns) that must be of interest.

 

If, post 07', we saw 'stuck weather patterns' , linked to a more convolute ,slower moving jet, become more common then surely post 2012 we should expect to see a similar impact as the extra energy absorbed by the planet shows impact?

 

We all know that such weather patterns/jet configurations have occurred in the past but always with an accompanying 'reason/forcing', what reason/forcing do we see today? (esp. when post 07' changes straddled a solar cycles extremes and a flip in PDO phase whilst maintaining the same 'theme' for the areas stuck under jet troughs/ridges?) Should we see Jet patterns alter post 2012's low would it not be ;safe' to involve this change in the mix of 'forcing's' and if not why not?

 

Post 07' sea ice/snow cover amounts did not show great variation ( compared to the 22% reduction in sea ice in 07'?) and so the jet convolutions/positioning would remain similar? but then  2012 dropped sea ice a further 18% ( a significant drop?) so would we then expect to see the jet undergo a similar 'shift' in it's running as we did in a post 07' N.Hemisphere?

 

So, did we see a different Jet positioning over the UK this summer?, did the US ridge shift (and alter their 'weather' in the areas of change?), Did the Greenland H.P. manifest again this summer? Did the Arctic suffer another 'average' summer?

[Gray-Wolf]

Is this topic so 'way out there' that folk don't wish to stain their characters by contributing or is it that it is too disturbing a concept for some to offer up any insights?

[4wd]

Option #3, not much evidence either way so why try to big it up or play it down when we don't know.You can fret about it all you want but a ) it won't change anything.b ) we will all manage just fine.c ) most likely nothing will discernibly change anyway.d ) ice might soon be on an increasing trend since it hasn't declined as a direct response to CO2 no matter what some try to tell us. 

Edited August 31, 2013 by 4wd

[Isolated Frost]

2007; I definitely feel as though something clicked; and since then, with a few exceptions, synoptics in the UK have followed a pretty apparent trend, and 2013 has seen a slight reversal of mass sea ice decline, summer synoptics and it's why I believe that perhaps it's either a notable blip, or a beginning in an opposite trend. I think the answer to the topic question is yes; but lots more research is needed.

[songster]

Is this topic so 'way out there' that folk don't wish to stain their characters by contributing or is it that it is too disturbing a concept for some to offer up any insights?

Because there are only so many ways you can say "probably, but nobody knows how" without resorting to interpretative dance.

[be cause]

Because there are only so many ways you can say "probably, but nobody knows how" without resorting to interpretative dance.

will you provide the music ...?

[stewfox]

Option #3, not much evidence either way so why try to big it up or play it down when we don't know.You can fret about it all you want but a ) it won't change anything.b ) we will all manage just fine.c ) most likely nothing will discernibly change anyway.d ) ice might soon be on an increasing trend since it hasn't declined as a direct response to CO2 no matter what some try to tell us. 

 

This isn't being fair to GW

 

All he is doing I assume is trying to promote some interest in what is a fascinating subject. It may need another 20/30 years of data to pin anything down but that doesn't stop us discussing it ?

 

Your approach seems to suggest, why bother with weather/climate anyway lets just look out of the window each day.

[Methuselah]

And, back to the topic: it will; of course it will...But it'll take its place among the myriad other influences, and any definitive signal will likely be lost amongst the 'noise'? 

[stewfox]

“We conclude that the mechanism put forth by previous studies … that amplified polar warming has lead to the increased occurrence of slow-moving weather patterns and blocking episodes, is unsupported by the observations,â€

 

 

http://judithcurry.com/2013/08/21/arctic-sea-ice-and-weather/

 

http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_2013_GRL_wfigs_wsupp.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

This isn't being fair to GW

 

All he is doing I assume is trying to promote some interest in what is a fascinating subject. It may need another 20/30 years of data to pin anything down but that doesn't stop us discussing it ?

 

 

 

I actually do wish to have an exchange of views on the subject in the hope that someone will provide enough evidence to change my own opinion on the subject? Through all of the AGW debate this is all I wish for, to be wrong, dead wrong and for someone to show me the error of my understandings on what is occurring/going to occur to my planet.

 

A few posters do help me see things differently but sadly none of them belong to the 'Denier' camp so I still end up with grave concerns for the future.

 

As far as the Arctic is concerned I'd like for someone to show why a huge great dollop of energy , new to the climate system as was, will not cause any level of change to the climate/weather across the Northern hemisphere.

 

Already this year the U.S. has matched the 'costs' from last years weather extremes and we have not even had our first Hurricane this year yet! 

 

It would appear , to me if not others, that the extremes that the Arctic amplification has aided continue to impact the N. Hemisphere but that last years record low has enabled the jet pattern to 'shift' a bit putting us away from the Jet 'trough' that blighted us since 07' and shifting the Jet patterns across the rest of the hemisphere. Only the inner continental H.P. systems seem unaffected ( as you would expect?) so we still see Siberia melt/burn.

 

Should Arctic sea ice min. be similar to the post 07' years then it will be interesting to see if the current Jet distribution appears again next summer or whether we slip back into the post 07' 'trough' again ( with it's washout summer and widespread flooding)

 

To me I'd imagine it staying similar to this years summer with us again spared the 'trough' but central Europe suffering from it again ( and flooding again!) . Should this come to pass the Greenland melt will again be less severe than saw in 2012 and the Arctic should also be able to spend another summer under good ice retention conditions?

 

Should we see another drop in sea ice levels from the 2012 min ( another 18 to 20% drop in ice min ) then I'd expect the Jet 'placements' to change again ( as we saw post 07' and post 2012?) and the areas under the 'troughs' suffer floods and cool whilst those under the Jet 'ridges' suffer drought and extended extreme heat episodes.

 

I'll also repeat that I understand this 'view' is very simplistic but I think it catches the 'essence' of the patterns low ice drives? 

[Methuselah]

This seems germane to this topic, I think; many thanks to chio for finding it: 

 

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

And this, found by SnowyL

 

Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes

[Gael_Force]

I found this page while searching on the subject.

 

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~wx019276/teacosi/arcticpapers.html

 

A useful collection of papers - more will be added.

 

http://www.teacosi.org/

[DOdo]

Met Eireann The Irish Met office have done research along with a number of enviromental agencies and one of the theories is that the complete melting of the arctic during the summer may alter the course of the gulf increasing the chances of having severe cold snaps on par with the cold snap we had in 2010 . Its 103 pages long and well worth a read, ( temperatures and rainfall are also to increase it also looks at the enviromental impact) http//:.met.ie/news/

[smithyweather]

It says the winter temps will rise by 1.7c...

[BornFromTheVoid]

It says the winter temps will rise by 1.7c...

 

That is the high emissions scenario, and the 1.7C is for the north east. 1.5C is the general average. Seems possible, given the increase already seen annually

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi BFTV! Sadly until temps rise enough to limit snowfall, and not enhance it, folk will look at the white stuff as a sign of cooling ( unable to grasp the basics).

 

As temps rise the atmosphere over the region will carry more moisture and this will lead to more precipitation . In the colder months this will mean snow.

 

This blanket will only act to insulate the warming permafrost below so brings a double whammy of upping winter temps for the land below and increasing spring melt by snow melt run off.

 

I also wonder how added moisture will impact the weather of the northern lands with more precipitation events and a higher incidence of cloud?

[Methuselah]

Please Ian. Could you be a little less patronizing? I know it's not your intention but it is how the above post comes across... 

[Gray-Wolf]

No Pete it was not my intention but there are a certain 'group' of folk who will misrepresent snow events as signs of cooling and bemoan folk linking such to global warming. I see no way of this changing other than our reaching temp thresholds that reduce snowfall in favour of rain events.

 

I am sure you know that such misrepresentation occurs be it Senators building igloos or posters on this site.

 

I'm also sure you know how saddening it is to feel that only drastic changes in climate will allow the type of public consensus that will help us move towards mitigating that which we already have ample evidence for already?

[Coast]

Melting Arctic sea ice means it’s only going to get wetter for northern Europe

 

Summer downpours across northern  Europe linked to variations of jet stream winds caused by loss of sea ice

 

The unprecedented run of wet summer weather in recent years could be due in part to the melting sea ice in the Arctic, which appears to be affecting the movement of high-altitude winds over Britain, a study has found.

 

Scientists believe they have discovered a “causal link†between the loss of Arctic sea ice in summer months and variations in the jet stream that have brought a series of very wet summers to Britain and northern Europe.

 

The six summers from 2007 to 2012 were all wetter than average and, although none of these individual events were unprecedented in themselves, the sequence of six consecutive wet summers was “extraordinary†over a 34-year period from 1979 to 2012, the study found.

 

The summer of 2007 was the wettest over northern Europe during this period, and the summers of 2010 and 2011 were the fifth and sixth wettest respectively. In contrast, southern Europe experienced drier-than-usual conditions, it found.

 

The study, based on computer models of the weather, found that the dramatic loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic over the past decade can cause the jet stream – a high altitude ribbon of fast-moving air – to shift further south, bring stormy, wet weather to Britain and north-west Europe.

 

“The results of the computer model suggest that melting Arctic sea ice causes a change in the position of the jet stream, and this could help to explain the recent wet summers we have seen,†said James Screen of the University of Exeter, who carried out the research. “The loss of Arctic sea ice tends to shift the jet stream to the south in summer and so increases the risk of wet summers in the UK and north-west Europe.â€

 

He added: “The study suggests that the loss of sea ice not only has an effect on the environment and wildlife of the Arctic region, but has far-reaching consequence for people living in Europe and beyond.â€

 

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, is the latest to suggest a possible link between the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic and weather extremes around the northern hemisphere. Previous research found that sea-ice loss could be responsible for increasing the winter risk of cold, easterly winds from the Siberian Arctic blowing across north-western Europe, as they did in the winters of 2010 and 2011.

 

Dr Screen said that there are several possible factors that could have influenced recent wet summers, including the natural decade-long fluctuations in the sea-surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean. However, the latest study suggests that sea ice and the jet stream could explain up to a third of the trend towards wetter summers, he said.

 

The computer model compared weather patterns when the summer sea-ice was relatively extensive, as it was in the 1970s, to recent years, when it had contracted by nearly a half. It found that sea ice alone can influence the direction in which the jet stream tends to flow on its journey from west to east.

 

When the jet stream veers northwards between Scotland and Iceland, which it tended to do this summer, it usually results in long periods of dry, sunny weather. However, when it shifts south, as it did in the six previous summers, it brings wet, stormy weather over Britain from the Atlantic.

 

“We have some confidence that the computer models are showing the real thing. The pattern of summer rainfall we see in the computer models, when the only factor we change is the amount of sea ice in the Arctic, is very similar to what we’ve experienced over the past few years,†Dr Screen said.

 

Previous studies by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Jersey suggested that the loss of sea ice could be affecting the temperature gradients between polar regions and lower latitudes further south, which can influence the speed of the jet stream and so affect how likely it is to veer further north or south.

 

However, Dr Screen said that the latest study only partly supports this controversial idea. “The jet stream is a complex beast,†he said.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/melting-arctic-sea-ice-meansits-only-going-to-get-wetter-for-northern-europe-8909587.html

 

 

[4wd]

Complete non-story IMO, they don't suggest any actual mechanism other than that jet stream was further south at times.There's a valid observation that a run of wet summers in NW Europe coincided with a period with low ice in September, lets see if we can link bad weather to AGW - familiar pot.Now, what went wrong this year...Historically, groups of years with poor summers are not difficult to find and do not require an AGW based explanation. Assuming reduced ice is anything to do with AGW! 

[UV-RAY]

Complete non-story IMO, they don't suggest any actual mechanism other than that jet stream was further south at times.There's a valid observation that a run of wet summers in NW Europe coincided with a period with low ice in September, lets see if we can link bad weather to AGW - familiar pot.Now, what went wrong this year...Historically, groups of years with poor summers are not difficult to find and do not require an AGW based explanation. Assuming reduced ice is anything to do with AGW! 

I'm still awaiting  our Mediterranean climate they promised us not that long ago, still it's good too see that they've got all bases covered, from Mediterranean heat  to Maunder Minimum winters and flooding in summer. And to think people actually get paid for these kind of studies, talk about easy money!

Edited October 30, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer