Hurricane Nadine

[davehsug]

She really is a trouper! Ifind myself looking more at where she is than the Uk pattern when checking the model runs!

[Coast]

Amazing!

Never-die Nadine lingers near the Azores, to live another several days as tropical storm

For more than a week, tropical storm Nadine has been located within 600 miles of the Azores islands, and is in no hurry to leave the area.

In fact, the 5-day National Hurricane Center track forecast places the storm very near where it was on September 17! It has separated from the major steering features in the atmosphere, and is meandering. The GFS global model shows this storm sticking around well into the first week of October before getting obliterated by a potent trough -- near the Azores.

As of 11 a.m. today, Nadine’s estimated maximum sustained winds were 45 mph, and forecast to increase to 65 mph by the weekend. Nadine has now been a numbered tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane) for 13 days, not including the 1.5 days near the Azores when it was considered “post-tropicalâ€. It has been a tropical storm or hurricane for 12.25 days.

http://www.washingto...a9258_blog.html

This TRMM image taken on Sept. 24 at 08:49 UTC provided a look into the structure of Nadine and showed some towering thunderstorms reaching heights of almost 9.3 miles (15km). Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

http://phys.org/news...nadine.html#jCp

[Somerset Squall]

Nadine has moved southwards today and has strengthened to 45kts. Nadine is looking much better than the last few days, with deeper convection wrapping into the LLC, and pronounced banding now evident to the north. Nadine could strengthen a little more in the short term as shear remains low and Nadine continues to move over warmer water. As the ridging to the west transfers to the east of Nadine, Nadine should turn to the northwest then north in 2-3 days time. This however, is as far as we can forecast with any confidence. The models diverge significantly after 72hrs, with some models forecasting Nadine to be picked up by a trough and sent northeastwards to it's death, and some models forecasting the current southward motion to persist for longer thus placing Nadine too far south to be picked up by the trough. If the latter scenario plays out, then Nadine is likely to stall in 4 days time then move southwards yet again as a ridge builds back in to the west behind the passing trough. It all depends on just how far south Nadine moves over the next day before turning northwestwards. It'll be interesting to see what happens. When the trough moves close to Nadine in 3 days time, shear will increase meaning Nadine will weaken again. But until then, it could well become a high end tropical storm again if current organisational trends continue.

Edited September 26, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[The PIT]

GFS is interesting as it doesn't quite kill nadine off and a rement low moves across the alantic then south past western africa and back out west again. Worth watching as this could go on for a while yet.

[Storm Track]

Nadine doesn't quite kill off but she is probably a hurricane to tripping on the UK pattern with the remnant of the former Hurricane Nadine did allow that heat and moisture from the tropical cyclone could have given a boost to the UK storms. Nadine could moving toward the Southern England early October with a tropical storm or hurricane status.

[Coast]

You can't keep the old girl down!

Never-Ending Tropical Storm Nadine Spins in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Nadine just won’t give up. The storm has been spinning in the eastern Atlantic Ocean in varying stages of intensity, since September 11. Since then, it has been classified at various times as a tropical depression, a tropical storm, a hurricane, a tropical storm again, a subtropical storm, and now is back to tropical storm status.

A NASA satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine in the eastern Atlantic.

Despite being around for about two weeks, the storm has managed to avoid making landfall anywhere. But it has certainly annoyed residents and tourists on the Azores Islands, since it has drifted close enough to bring blustery conditions, rain showers, and high surf. In fact, some computer models show the storm making another close pass with these islands early next week, and continuing to exist as a tropical storm, with sustained winds of between 39 and 74 mph, right on through the first week of October, which would put the storm among the longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record.

The modern title-holder is Hurricane Ginger in 1971, which lasted for 27 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s FAQ. Nadine will more likely rival 1969’s Hurricane Inga, Hurricane Kyle in 2002, and Hurricanes Carrie and Inez. Those storms lasted from between 20.25 to 24.75 days. To put this into perspective, the average named Atlantic storm lasts about six days.

Satellite loop of Super Typhoon Jelawat. Credit: NOAA's National Hurricane Center.

Nadine has been too far out to see to be routinely investigated by the U.S. Air Force’s Hurricane Hunters or by NOAA researchers, but it has been a boon for NASA, which has been flying Global Hawk drones above Nadine on missions that have lasted as long as 26 hours. Taking off from Wallops Island, Va., the drones have flown clear across the Atlantic, and then flown zig-zagging, "lawn mower patterns" at altitudes of up to 65,000 feet – far higher than commercial airliners fly — above the storm.

Scott Braun, the principal investigator for NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinal (HS3) mission, said the fifth flight into Nadine was underway Wednesday, and it’s “probably also our last unless it does something really interesting next week (assuming that it is still around).†Braun’s team has been able to collect valuable data as Nadine has undergone various transitions. However, it hasn’t been the ideal storm for collecting data sets on what makes hurricanes rapidly intensify, Braun said. “…We have captured this storm at so many stages (very early formation, transition to hurricane, back to tropical storm, to post-tropical, and back to tropical) and it will tell us a lot about each of these stages. However, it won't be ideal for addressing our science goals as far as larger changes in intensity are concerned,†Braun said via email. “So we would really have liked to have gotten a stronger storm for at least a flight or two. But you have to take what nature gives you. Luckily, we have two more years, so we should have no trouble collecting the data that we ideally would like to have.â€

Photo taken from NASA's Global Hawk drone as it flew towards T.S. Nadine on September 26.

The HS3 project is designed to help answer lingering questions on tropical cyclone intensity changes. Although hurricane track forecasts have improved greatly during the past two decades, intensity forecast accuracy has languished.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-storm-nadine-could-be-one-of-longest-lasting-storms-on-record-15050

[Coast]

She move around like a wave of summer breeze,

Go, driver, go, go, catch her balmy breeze.

Moving thru the traffic like a mounted cavalier.

Leaning out the taxi window trying to make her hear

[summer blizzard]

NHC have it stalling again in about 5 days and last nights GFS12z had it still there on day 16.

For those wondering why i would say that it is simply the location, whether the Jet is strong or weak to the south west of the Azores there is generally always a upper high and warm sea temperatures, couple this with a weaker than normal Jet and you can see why it just floats about.

[Coast]

Well she certainly isn't that organised!!!

Nadine Lingering in East Atlantic

Long lived Nadine continues to churn in the far eastern Atlantic. After weakening Tuesday to a 45 MPH tropical storm, Nadine intensified slightly this morning up to a 50 MPH tropical storm. The satellite presentation looked better today with more convection on the north side of the storm organizing into a pronounced band (See the satellite image below). Nadine has been cut off from the westerlies that usually blow in the upper atmosphere in the northeastern Atlantic. An unusual blocking high continues north of Nadine which has steered the storm in an unusual southward motion.

The track below shows that eventually Nadine will likely cross a point that the storm had already passed over before which would create a giant loop. There is an upper level trough moving into the Central Atlantic which could pick up Nadine and move the storm north and eventually cause recurvature. However, some of the morning computer model runs indicate that the trough may not pick up Nadine and the storm could still be wandering around the North Atlantic in 5 days. Even though Nadine has been around for a long time, there are other storms that have lasted longer. Hurricane Ginger of 1971 began on September 6 and lasted until October 5. Ginger recurved all the way into the Central Atlantic before making a long slow path back to North Carolina.

The track below shows that eventually Nadine will likely cross a point that the storm had already passed over before which would create a giant loop. There is an upper level trough moving into the Central Atlantic which could pick up Nadine and move the storm north and eventually cause recurvature. However, some of the morning computer model runs indicate that the trough may not pick up Nadine and the storm could still be wandering around the North Atlantic in 5 days. Even though Nadine has been around for a long time, there are other storms that have lasted longer. Hurricane Ginger of 1971 began on September 6 and lasted until October 5. Ginger recurved all the way into the Central Atlantic before making a long slow path back to North Carolina.

http://blog.myfoxhur...-east-atlantic/

[The PIT]

I bet the Fish are getting fed up with being spun around.

[Steve C]

It would confuse the hell out of people if Nadine manages to affect us again in a few days time (even if it seems unlikely at the moment) I bet lots of people think the last storm was the remnants of Nadine itself.

[lorenzo]

Place your bets, latest NOAA fcst discussion sitting firmly on the fence, models divided on where she is heading in an overall low confidence forecast.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/6. NADINE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE

OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING

THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD

AND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL

LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N48W. AFTER 72 HR...THE

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS DIVERGENCE. THE GFS...GFS

ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE SLOWLY

EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES

AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM. THE UKMET...ECMWF...

CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST

OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH WOULD STEER

THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. SINCE THERE IS

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A

FORECAST SLOW MOTION AFTER 72 HR.

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE

MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH

THE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR. IN ADDITION...SMALL

SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH

THE STORM. WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER

INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD

PARTLY SHIELD THE STORM...AS WELL AS PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE

THAT COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR

AGREEMENT ON FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE

NADINE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE

NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE

SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHEAR

NADINE COULD ENCOUNTER.

[The PIT]

Latest GFS has the remains of Nadine hitting Northern Ireland and Scotland on October the 5th. So who knows.

[Coast]

I mean, has he any clue at all where's she's going?

Forecasters say Tropical Storm Nadine continues to roam the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Nadine is 740 miles (1191 kilometers) south-southwest of the Azores islands, with top sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). It was moving west at 7 mph (11 kph) at 11 p.m. EDT Thursday. Nadine has been swirling around the Atlantic for two weeks. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect.

http://www.seattlepi...p#ixzz27k8nU0Bd

Nadine enters its 15th day of life

The Energizer-bunny storm of 2012, Tropical Storm Nadine, has entered its 15th day of life as a tropical cyclone. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Tuesday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. That model shows Nadine getting caught up in a trough of low pressure by Wednesday and lifted to the northeast over colder waters, where it would likely die late next week. However, the 00Z run of the ECMWF model predicts that Nadine will miss the trough, and meander in the Central Atlantic for at least the next ten days. Nadine is already in ninth place for longest-lived named storm since 1950, according to a list compiled by Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2243

[lorenzo]

Am sure a week or so ago GFS projected Nadine to travel on the NWest corridor between Scotland - Faroes - Iceland.. possible eventual destination..

One thing is for sure, my guess is as good as NOAA's at the moment !

[Suburban Streamer]

tweet from metoffice saying:

Tropical Storm #Nadine still swirling south of the Azores - has caused the sea temperature to drop by over 3 deg. C: http://t.co/RLlJUECo

Edited September 28, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Coast]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...TROPICAL STORM NADINE...

Nadine has strengthened just a tad more than my intensity forecast showed in special update #118A. Strengthening continued as she has developed favorable upper anticyclonic outflow...becoming enhanced to the NE by departing paragraph P5 upper trough. It was speculated a few times that the upper vortex just SW of Nadine (currently mentioned in paragraph P6) would enhance the outflow to the SW...but it appears this feature has always been too close to Nadine and instead is providing some outflow blockage to the SW as evidenced by the storm canopy and upper outflow bias to the NE half of the storm seen on infrared satellite. This outflow blockage is why I maintain my special update #118A intensity forecast...despite Nadine being currently a little stronger than that intensity forecast. My intensity forecast shows weakening after 11 PM Fri (tomorrow night)...as Nadine turns northward over even cooler waters...and as the paragraph P6 C Atlc upper trough merges with mid-latitude westerlies...hence turning eastward toward Nadine and imparting vertical shear across Nadine with its east side. My current intensity forecast (shown in Figure 1) is in agreement with the 11 PM EDT NHC's for the first 24 hrs...then my weakening rate is more aggressive than the NHC's after that time. In fact...I have Nadine becoming a remnant low by 96 hours while the NHC asserts Nadine being a tropical cyclone thru the next 120 hours due to forecast uncertainty in the longer range.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=211

[Jack Wales]

I'm sure Nadine has formed an eye which you can see on this live feed... don't be surprised if she is reinstated as a hurricane at the next NHC update.

It looks like she will last until around next Tuesday after which she will almost certainly be engulfed by a deep layer trough / front and whisked eastwards across the Atlantic

[lfcdude]

She is officially a hurricane again!

Met Office Storms â€@metofficestorms

#Nadine has been upgraded to a hurricane again 11.5 days after it was last a hurricane:

[Coast]

She is officially a hurricane again!

Met Office Storms â€@metofficestorms

#Nadine has been upgraded to a hurricane again 11.5 days after it was last a hurricane:

Make your mind up Nadine!!!

Nadine, the tropical system that just won't die, strengthened into a hurricane again - for the second time this morning.

While no threat to the United States, the system could bring nasty weather to the Azores - for a second time, as it's in the process of making a big loop in the eastern Atlantic.

At 11 a.m., it was about 730 miles southwest of the Azores, lumbering northwest a 8 mph with sustained winds of 75 mph.

Nadine already is in the running for being one of the longest-lasting storms on record, as it first emerged on Sept. 11 and has been a named storm for 16 days as of today. During the stretch, it strengthened into a hurricane for two days, Sept. 15-16, and then weakened back into a tropical storm. Although it lost tropical characteristics for a couple days last weekend, it regenerated in a storm on Sunday. Now it is forecast to continue surviving for another five days, possibly longer.

On the other hand, as it moves farther north, it likely will encounter strong wind shear and cooler water temperatures, and those conditions might lead to its demise, said senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven of the National Hurricane Center. Since tropical record-keeping started in 1851, only 11 storms have lasted more than 21 days, including the time they first spun up into tropical depressions. The top among them, the San Ciriaco hurricane, existed an astonishing 33 days in 1899. On average, systems last about seven days.

http://www.sun-senti...0,7489886.story

Nadine doesn't appear to want to go away anytime soon. Friday morning, the storm reached Category 1 hurricane strength again. This system is not threatening any land. According to Bay News 9 Meteorologist Juli Marquez, Nadine now has 75 mph winds in the central Atlantic Ocean. The storm is located at 29.6 N, 34.7 W and moving northwest at 8 mph.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. "A turn towards the north-northwest is expected late Friday," Marquez said. "With that motion expected to continue through Sunday." Nadine was first named on Sept. 11. Counting the period from Sept. 22–23, when Nadine had gone post-tropical for a short time, the system has lasted 15 days.

http://www.baynews9...._atlantic_.html

[Methuselah]

I hope it doesn't go round in big circles right up until Xmas!!

[Coast]

I hope it doesn't go round in big circles right up until Xmas!!

She would hold the record for longevity then!!!

[Storm Track]

Nadine reaches hurricane strength again but she is coming to hit us on the Southern England by the October 5th that is because it had caused the sea temperature to drop by under 1.5 deg. C

[Coast]

Nadine reaches hurricane strength again but she is coming to hit us on the Southern England by the October 5th that is because it had caused the sea temperature to drop by under 1.5 deg. C

I'm not as certain as that, but there is a stirring in the GFS free atmosphere chart:

Hurricane Nadine to hang around 5 more days

MIAMI (AP) — Forecasters say Hurricane Nadine will continue to be a force in the eastern Atlantic for at least five more days.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Nadine was 685 miles (1102 kilometers) southwest of the Azores islands as of 11 p.m EDT Friday, with top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). It was moving northwest at 10 mph (16 kph).

Nadine has been swirling around the Atlantic for more than two weeks since becoming a tropical storm Sept. 11. No coastal watches or warnings are in effect. In the Pacific, Norman has weakened to a tropical depression just off the west coast of mainland Mexico and could become a remnant low by Saturday morning. It has sustained winds of 35 mph (56 kph) and the center will move near or along the coast of northern Sinaloa during the next few days, bringing heavy rains.

http://www.google.co...b6c41f45b1de5d7

NOAA do have her taking a right turn?

http://www.nhc.noaa...._track#contents

[The PIT]

GFS earlier runs had her hitting the UK on the 5th but later runs show her getting absorbed by a low that also becomes stranded in the same position before finally trying to wander well to the south of us. ECM brings it across the north west on the 9th October.