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Hurricane Nadine


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here's an ickle bit of a worry, not from Nadine herself necessarily, but what she may spawn:

TS Nadine

Tropical storm Nadine strengthens as she moves away from the Azores. Currently winds are at 65mph, pressure is 981mb, and she is moving SE at 8mph. While the wind speeds have came up and the pressure has dropped her satellite appearance is dwindling. There is little convection on the NE half of the storm and overall convection is not extremely deep. The reason for strengthening is Nadine is probably getting some non-tropical energy as conditions are not good for strengthening. With the intensity uptick there is some changes in the forecast from earlier.

Nadine continues to be a confusing storm with this intensity jump. This was a surprise given Nadine should be weakening or at least maintaining strength earlier. Also satellite shows that Nadine is not doing good. The whole northern side of the storm is void of convection and there doesn't look to be improvement. In fact, satellite imagery is showing Nadine may be trying to turn extra-tropical which is something to watch. Wind shear is pretty strong over Nadine and SST's are cool so any rising of the winds isn't from tropical organization. I do believe in the next few days Nadine should transition to an extra-tropical storm. Shear could decrease for a little bit but I'm not totally sure if that will happen or what Nadine would even do. After that Nadine's future is up in the air.

rb.jpg

Models are still split on where Nadine will go. They can not agree on where/when a recurve would happen. This has been the norm for the models over the past few days. In the short term models show an ESE movement, which is backed up by the current environment. There is little agreement between the global models after a few days. My forecast doesn't have a lot of confidence since models don't have a lot of agreement. I see Nadine moving ESE to SE over the next couple days and then everything is mostly unknown.

at201214_model.gif

http://www.wundergro...tml?entrynum=34

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

You can see from the extremely low probability that it's almost anyone's guess where this staggering young lady is off to:

201214N_1G.png

The US info sites have largely given up on her now as she moves out of their area of concern. Its down to European satellite tracking to keep us informed

MANU_20120921_0600.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Location... 34.9n 27.5w

About 215 Miles South Of The Azores

Maximum Sustained Winds... 65 Mph

Present Movement... South Or 190 Degrees At 7 Mph

Minimum Central Pressure... 981 Mb... 28.97 Inches

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Azores

At 800 Am EDT... The Center Of Tropical Storm Nadine Was Located Near Latitude 34.9 North... Longitude 27.5 West. Over The Past Couple Of Hours Nadine Has Been Moving Toward The South Near 7 Mph. However... A Southeastward Motion Is Expected To Resume Later Today And Continue For The Next 48 Hours. On The Forecast Track...Nadine Will Continue To Gradually Move Away From The Azores Today And Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph With Higher Gusts. Some Weakening Is Possible... And There Is A Strong Likelihood That Nadine Will Become A Post-Tropical Cyclone In The Next Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 275 Miles From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 981 Mb... 28.97 Inches.

Tropical Storm Or Gale Conditions Are Expected To Continue In Portions Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Today. These Winds Will Begin To Decrease Later Today And Tonight. Swells Generated By Nadine Will Affect The Azores During The Next Couple Of Days. These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions.

Nadine Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of 1 To 2 Inches Over The Azores.

http://www2.wsav.com/weather/2012/sep/21/8am-ar-4594426/

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Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.

Such a beautiful bright black eye. She's a temptress.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=2

She's now free of her responsibilities for the weekend having sorted out the babysitters. Opportunity to do a bit more flirting.

Suspect she has designs on a relaxing holiday in Spain and France.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nadine is fascinating. Instead of becoming extratropical, she has transitioned into a subtropical cyclone. This is a highly unusual occurence, but it has happened before (Edouard in 1990 is a good example, also near the Azores). Convection is well removed from the centre, the strongest winds also are (located now in the large band sprawling south of the storm), but Nadine retains a moderately warm core. These characteristics support the classification from tropical to subtropical.

From NHC:

SUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012

500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

NADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST

DAY OR SO. WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF

MODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE

STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER

OF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS

THAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY. THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-

AVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND

DISTRIBUTION. ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE

POST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO

FIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT

FROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE. THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS

TIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A

SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED

REMAINS 50 KT.

The future of Nadine remains as impossible to predict as ever. As Coast's model diagrams show, there is no model agreement and they are still all over the place. Nadine's status remains uncertain too, it could remain a subtropical storm meandering around for the next 5 days, but it could just as easily become fully extratropical. A very interesting storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

As Coast's model diagrams show, there is no model agreement and they are still all over the place. Nadine's status remains uncertain too, it could remain a subtropical storm meandering around for the next 5 days, but it could just as easily become fully extratropical. A very interesting storm.

I've really enjoyed following this one and we still don't have a clue where Nadine will finally end up or what effect she might have on the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

What next for Nadine?

Update:

As Nadine moves away from the Azores this weekend, the options are open for the system's path into next week. Nadine, or its remnants, could have a one-way ticket into Europe or could take a round-trip cruise back to the Azores next week.While Nadine was poorly organized Friday, Sept. 21, and is likely to lose tropical characteristics soon, its rain and circulation may survive for days as it meanders the Eastern and Central Atlantic.

High pressure and dry air to the north were pushing rain squalls away from the Azores this weekend. However, due to the proximity of the system to the islands, rough seas and dangerous surf will continue. One scenario for next week allows Nadine to loop back to the north, impacting the Azores yet again. A front is currently pushing Nadine southeastward. Depending on how high pressure sets up to the north of the front and Nadine, the clockwise flow around the high could allow Nadine to turn back to the west, then north to near the Azores.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, head of AccuWeather.com's Hurricane Center, "If Nadine were to survive and move southwest of the Azores for a time, it would move over warmer water and potentially could regenerate."

Another interesting scenario allows Nadine, or its remnants, to drift toward the coast of Europe. In this case, the front interacting with Nadine now would continue to push the system slowly eastward. Additional waves of low pressure along the front could continue to tug on the system, perhaps enough to drag it toward Portugal and Spain later next week.

"Waters are cooler along the west coast of Europe, so Nadine would not likely be able to survive or regenerate as a tropical system, if it were to move closer to Europe," Kottlowski said. At any rate, the frontal system has the potential to bring at least spotty showers to Portugal and Spain next week. If Nadine's remnant moisture were to get involved, the rainfall could be more substantial and there could be locally gusty showers.

Much of the summer has been very dry in Portugal and portions of southwestern Europe. There has been little or no rain around Lisbon since the middle of August. If it seems like Nadine has been around forever, its lifespan is not even close to tropical cyclone duration record-holders. The longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin was 1899's San Ciriaco Hurricane, which lingered for 28 days. Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994 was the longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Pacific Basin (East,Central and West) at 30 days.

Nadine was dubbed a tropical storm during the night of Sept. 11, 2012 and would have to survive for several more weeks to challenge duration records. "While the path of Nadine is uncertain, we are confident this system will lose some or all tropical characteristics soon," Kottlowski stated.

400x266_09211907_nad.jpg

http://www.accuweath...or-nadine/76790

ASII_20120922_0715.png

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nadine has been declared extratropical today. However, NHC give the remnant low a 40% chance of regenerating into a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Nadine is currently located west of the Canary Islands and south of the Azores. The central Atlantic strong and deep-layered ridge to the west (described in paragraph P1) has been pushing Nadine southward until recently...when the new paragraph P4 surface cyclone offshore of Portugal and Spain has begun dragging Nadine eastward. It remains to be seen if Nadine continues eastward...or if it resumes a southward track once the surface cyclone lifts out to the NE. Currently the center of Nadine is over the 26 deg C sea-surface temp isotherm. If the track resumed on a southward course...the instability will increase with more low-level heat content coupled with cold temps of upper troughing above...potentially allowing for t-storms to regenerate...hence allowing Nadine to regenerate into a subtropical storm.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=205

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nadine is back from the grave. The system is now a 50kt tropical storm and NHC have re-started advisories. Nadine has drifted southwards since it became extratropical, and is now over waters of about 26C. Nadine is forecast to move towards the west as ridging to the north becomes the primary steering influence. Shear is expected to remain low, and waters may get a little warmer as Nadine tracks to the west. NHC forecast Nadine to become a hurricane again in a few days time as a result.

track.gif

A very bizarre track it has to be said.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Hurricane/Typhoon John of 1994 is the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record. Lasted from 11th August- 10th September. Nadine is some way off of this smile.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_John_%281994%29

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Hurricane/Typhoon John of 1994 is the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record. Lasted from 11th August- 10th September. Nadine is some way off of this smile.png

http://en.wikipedia....ane_John_(1994)

What about in the Atlantic?

NVM

Google is my friend

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ginger

Second longest, but longest that was given a name

Edited by JonMillar
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

In the Atlantic it's a hurricane from 1899, closely followed by Hurricane Ginger of 1971.

1899 hurricane: http://en.wikipedia....riaco_hurricane

Ginger: http://en.wikipedia....urricane_Ginger

Note that the duration dates are longer than Hurricane/Typhoon John from the Pacific, but the 1899 hurricane turned extratropical for a few days of it's exsistance before becoming tropical again (rather like Nadine).

From Ginger:

In 2003, it was discovered that the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane lasted as a tropical cyclone longer than Ginger, although its duration as a tropical cyclone was not continuous. This made Ginger the second longest-lived of any Atlantic hurricane, but it remains the storm that lasted the most consecutive days as a tropical cyclone in the basin.[3]
Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

This from the NHC.

000

WTNT44 KNHC 240901

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012

500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND

SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES...SCATTEROMETER DATA...

AND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NEARBY BUOY 41676 INDICATE NADINE HAS

WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.

NADINE IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/05

KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE

NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER

HIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE

RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE

NADINE ON A WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72

HORUS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE

WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL

MODEL CONSENSUS.

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...COLD WATER UPWELLING...AND MODERATE

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR THE

NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH

WARMER SSTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE

OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 31.4N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 24/1800Z 31.6N 27.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 25/0600Z 31.7N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 25/1800Z 31.5N 30.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

48H 26/0600Z 30.9N 31.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

72H 27/0600Z 29.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

96H 28/0600Z 30.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

120H 29/0600Z 33.0N 35.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

Is there a possibility that Nadine could be UK bound come October?

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

This from the NHC.

Is there a possibility that Nadine could be UK bound come October?

Possibly, though it's a long way off to tell. GFS has Nadine moving into Southern England on 5th Ocotber, bringing some warmth but heavy rain. A lot could change from now until then however.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Nicely summed up by Jeff Masters in his latest blog:

Tropical Storm Nadine is back, like a nasty cold you just can't get rid of. Nadine had moved southeastwards over cool waters on Friday and Saturday, which robbed the storm of its heavy thunderstorms and tropical characteristics. But Nadine wandered back to the west this Sunday morning over slightly warmer waters, allowing the storm to regain its heavy thunderstorms and its name. Steering currents favor a continued westwards motion for Nadine, keeping the storm far enough south of the Azores Islands that they will see only very sporadic rain showers over the next few days. Nadine will likely turn to the north over the middle Atlantic late this week, but will still probably be around a week from now. The storm is not likely to threaten any land areas for at least the next seven days.

sep23_nadine.jpg

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2239

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

She just won't give up!!! 2 1/2 weeks now:

Tropical Storm Nadine still circling in Atlantic

It was about two weeks ago that a young Tropical Storm Nadine spun around near the Caribbean and East Coast, though the storm ended up circling back east toward the Azores. Here it goes again.

The storm reformed as a tropical cyclone Sunday morning, having moved through the Azores and degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone. A post-tropical storm is a former tropical cyclone that still has heavy rains and high winds but no longer has tropical cyclone characteristics, according to the National Hurricane Center. Nadine was first named as a tropical cyclone Sept. 11, and it reached hurricane status less than a week later, holding that strength for Sept. 15-17. After circling back in the Atlantic and passing over the Azores off of the African coast, the storm was declared post-tropical on Saturday.

Over the next few days, conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical storm development, and Nadine is moving toward warmer waters, according to the hurricane center. But beyond that, there is more uncertainty over the storm and the factors affecting it. Forecasters expect the storm to move westward and then southwestward as other weather systems approach. The storm is now about 440 miles due south of the Azores and isn't expected to move far over the next several days. Models have it about 400 miles to the west by this weekend, still thousands of miles from North America.

The zombie-like storm is the only thing worth watching in the tropics at the moment -- no other systems appear likely to flirt with tropical storm status in the coming days. Will we see a Tropical Storm Oscar in 2012? That remains to be seen.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-tropical-storm-nadine-still-circling-in-atlantic-20120924,0,4509086.story

201214N.png

023212W5_NL_sm.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Looks like she might get into the top 100 longest living Atlantic storms tomorrow (though not without a break) and poss top 10 if she lasts another 6 days.

good.gif Maybe even higher?

1 27.75 DAYS - STORM 3 OF 1899

2 27.00 DAYS - GINGER 1971

3 24.75 DAYS - INGA 1969

4 22.00 DAYS - KYLE 2002

5 20.75 DAYS - CARRIE 1957 and STORM 9 OF 1893

7 20.25 DAYS - INEZ 1966

8 19.75 DAYS - ALBERTO 2000

http://www.aoml.noaa...d/tcfaq/E6.html

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Nadine appears to have formed an eye like feature, though convection is not very deep around it. Dry air is plaguing Nadine, but a blocking high to the west should force Nadine southwards over the next day or two. This will put Nadine over much warmer water, so Nadine should strengthen some from it's current intensity of 40kts.

Like this comment from NHC:

HOWEVER...THE LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL MODELS SUGGEST

THAT THE ALREADY TWO-WEEK-OLD CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER

THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

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