Hurricane Nadine

[Rainy]

What's the chances she, or her remains, might sneak towards the UK by next Monday?

[Coast]

What's the chances she, or her remains, might sneak towards the UK by next Monday?

Small I think as most models point towards it turning South again or taking some strange circular path after it's trip to The Azores:

[Chris W]

What a strange path Nadine is taking! It has been fascinating to track this storm over the past week or so and see how it deals with the high pressure over the North Atlantic. It seems like the models are leaning towards Nadine taking a slow route east (becoming extratropical fairly soon) towards Gibraltar and then turning north to come almost due south towards us, following another depression not far ahead.

Of course it could all change a lot, but I'm certainly not ruling out the chances of a visit - come whenever that may!

[Coast]

What a strange path Nadine is taking!

She's a bit like a drunk in a town centre on Saturday night after being kicked out of the pub!

Is she going to make it home???

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Nadine puts Azores on alert

Far out in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Nadine continues moving slowly northeastward, and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Azores in a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory

11 p.m. update -- Nadine weakens a little as it inches closer to the azores.

Watches and Warnings

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

- The islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira in the Azores.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Discussion and 48-hour Outlook

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 35.8 north, longitude 32.2 west. Nadine is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph. This motion should continue into early Wednesday, but the motion is likely to become slow and erratic by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center.Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb, or 29.32 inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Surf: Swells generated by Nadine are beginning to affect. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

http://www.cfnews13....torm_nadin.html

[Rainy]

Aha .. Nadine or her offspring might yet pounce on us ...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19650773

[simon29]

I once went out with a girl called nadine and she was always hard to predict lol.

[Coast]

I once went out with a girl called nadine and she was always hard to predict lol.

Did she go in a wobbly circle around the Azores not sure if she wanted to head to the UK or not?

Tropical Storm Nadine continues to churn towards the Azores Islands at 4 mph, where tropical storm warnings are up. Nadine brought sustained winds of 32 mph, gusting to 46 mph to Horta Castelo Branco in the Azores at 1:30 pm local time, and occasional heavy rain showers have affected most of the islands today. Nadine is a very large storm, as seen on visible satellite loops, and will affect the islands for at least three more days as it treks slowly to the southeast of the islands. On Thursday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and will convert to an extratropical storm. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; most of models predict that the two systems will merge, and the extratropical version of Nadine will move back to the west-southwest next week, where it could potentially become a tropical storm again. However, the GFS model predicts that Nadine and the upper-level low will remain separate, and extratropical storm Nadine will go on to hit Portugal and bring much-needed rain to the region on Monday. Much of Portugal and Spain are in moderate to severe drought, according to the Global Drought Monitor from the University College London.

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2235

Tropical Storm Nadine Advisory

11 a.m. update -- Tropical storm or gale conditions affecting portions of the Azores through Thursday.

Watches and Warnings

Changes with this advisory:

The Portuguese Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the Azores.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

- the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira, Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the Azores.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Discussion and 48-hour Outlook

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 37.2 north, longitude 31.8 west.

Nadine is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph. Nadine should move erratically today, but is expected to begin an east-southeastward drift on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, Corvo in the Azores reported sustained winds of 42 mph with a gust to 58 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb or 29.32 inches.

Hazards Affecting Land

Wind: Tropical storm or gale conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Thursday.

Surf: Swells generated by Nadine will affect the Azores during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

http://www.cfnews13....nadine_is_.html

[Zenarcher]

A nice high res sat image of Nadine thanks to Nasa,

[Azores Hi]

Did she go in a wobbly circle around the Azores not sure if she wanted to head to the UK or not?

I do have that effect on Women...

[Coast]

I do have that effect on Women...

[simon29]

She was always having a wobble if this ex hurricane is anything like her itl drift off then come back with a nasty sting in the tail

[Coast]

Forgive the accent!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I am really hoping this stays away, interesting video on bbc website about it, this sort of setup nearly always timed for a sunday

i know very uncertain, as pointed out on bbc video, but reminds me of Xynthia (sundays low) on 28th feb 2011

[Chris W]

How many TSs/hurricanes go extratropical and then turn back into a TS or hurricane? I have never heard of it happening, but can very much see the possibility of Nadine doing this if she is directed south again this week. It certainly will be a few days of buffeting for the Azores, if they aren't being so buffeted already.

The tracking video above was great for seeing the low level circulation and high level outflow, thanks for posting it Coast.

[Coast]

2am Update on Tropical Storm Nadine

Location... 37.1n 31.0w

About 160 Miles South Of Flores In The Azores

Maximum Sustained Winds... 50 Mph

Present Movement... East Or 90 Degrees At 3 Mph

Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb... 29.23 Inches

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Azores Islands Of Flores... Corvo... Faial... Pico... Sao Jorge... Graciosa... Terceira... Sao Miguel And Santa Maria.

At 200 Am EDT... The Center Of Tropical Storm Nadine Was Located Near Latitude 37.1 North... Longitude 31.0 West. Nadine Is Moving Toward The East Near 3 Mph. An East-Southeastward To Southeastward Motion Is Expected To Begin Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph With Higher Gusts. Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours... But Nadine Could Become A Post-Tropical Cyclone During The Next Couple Of Days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 275 Miles From The Center.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 990 Mb... 29.23 Inches.

Tropical Storm Or Gale Conditions Are Expected Within Portions Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Today.

Swells Generated By Nadine Will Affect The Azores During The Next Few Days. These Swells Are Likely To Cause Life-Threatening Surf And Rip Current Conditions.

http://www2.wsav.com...2am-ar-4584205/

NASA's TRMM captured Nadine's rainfall rates at 6:13 am EDT on Sept. 19, and showed no rainfall was occurring near Nadine's center. Rainfall around Nadine's center was falling at 20mm~0.8 inches per hour. Nadine's past and predicted path with appropriate symbols is shown overlaid in white. Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce

http://phys.org/news...-storm.html#jCp

[Coast]

Tropical Storm NADINE: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

[Coast]

Has Nadine got been playing that game where you put your forehead on a pole in the ground and go around and around until when you stop you can't stand up?

[Rainy]

Such a beauty spinning around and swishing her skirts. But what's her intention? Does she send a lively baby to us to look after for the weekend and then go off for a holiday to charge her batteries?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=2

[Coast]

Such a beauty spinning around and swishing her skirts. But what's her intention? Does she send a lively baby to us to look after for the weekend and then go off for a holiday to charge her batteries?

Maybe.....

Nadine has tracked more eastward than northward in the last 24 hours than previously thought...which requires me to adjust my forecast track in Figure 1 more southward than the previous. With that said...I am still more north (or left) of the NHC forecast. One reason is that the latest infrared loop shows the swirl center of Nadine tracking faster to the north than the current NHC forecast. Second...I think Nadine will wiggle NW in the next 12 hrs toward a low-level ridge weakness associated with what is now the 1005 mb low in paragraph P3. As the weakness passes by to the north between 12 and 24 hrs...I believe Nadine will then wiggle back NE while trying to link with that weakness.

The aforementioned 1005 mb system and its upper trough approach Nadine while decomposing into two upper vortices...thanks to strong and deep-layered ridge developing in warm air advection ahead of the paragraph P2 weather system. The first is a cut-off deep-layered vortex west of Nadine (which could become a subtropical cyclone as mentioned in the intro of this full discussion). The second is a gradually developing upper vortex to the north. Tonight's 00Z GFS shows this developing upper vortex sliding SE in a way that puts Nadine in its SW side as opposed to its south side...and therefore I show a more SE track for the longer-term as opposed to a straight east track like I showed earlier. The 00Z GFS still shows the developing upper vortex supporting a new surface non-tropical cyclone to the NE of Nadine that could ultimately absorb what is left of Nadine later on.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=202

[Liam J]

Hurricane Nadine ploughing through the Canary Islands next week? Very interesting times ahead, including the UK over this weekend. The longlivity of Nadine is incredible in itself.

Anybody fancy a group booking to the Canary Islands perhaps?

Edited September 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Suburban Streamer]

she's been on holiday so long, she's not only had time for a holiday romance.....but a baby too!

cheers for the charts and info Coast et al

Edited September 20, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[aggy]

she's been on holiday so long, she's not only had time for a holiday romance.....but a baby too!

cheers for the charts and info Coast et al

dirty b***h

[Coast]

Liam Dutton's blog puts things in perspective:

As a weather forecaster, every once in a while I stare at the weather charts and just know that a particular forecast is going to be very difficult to get right.

Whilst this alone can be frustrating, it’s even more annoying when it happens over a weekend, because it’s when most people have time off and are outside doing things, for which the weather can potentially have a big impact. So here’s the headache for later this weekend. An ex-hurricane, now Tropical Storm Nadine, is lurking to the south of the Azores. Nadine was formerly a category one hurricane, but has now weakened and is drifting slowly around the eastern Atlantic.

What is certain is that Nadine itself won’t affect the UK, but what could happen is some of the energy and moisture associated with the storm could break away and spawn a new area of low pressure that will potentially arrive on our shores later this weekend.

Image copyright 2012 EUMETSAT – shows Tropical Storm Nadine (circled in red).

This is where the huge level of uncertainty lies. Weather computer models don’t tend to handle the remnants of former hurricanes or tropical storms very well when they arrive at our latitude. It’s often because of the huge amount of moisture and potential energy that they contain. If this is engaged by the jet stream, then they can explode to life spawning deep areas of low pressure bringing strong winds and heavy rain.

On the other hand, if the jet stream doesn’t engage with this moisture and potential energy, then low pressure is less likely to form and the end result can be very different.

How does the jet stream cause low pressure to form?

When the jet stream moves from west to east, as well as travelling in a straight line, it also bends around. In cases where it dips and curves in a broad U-bend shape, something called a trough forms. As the ribbon of air approaches the base of a trough, it slows down slightly as it goes around the bend, then accelerates once it has passed through it.

It’s the acceleration of the jet stream after passing through the U-bend that is a key factor because air high up in the atmosphere is sucked upwards and removed faster that it can be replaced at the surface. As a result of this process, air has a tendency to rise and pressure falls (forming an area of low pressure), resulting in cloud, wind and rain.

So how is this relevant for this weekend’s forecast?

At the moment, there looks to be a good possibility that a trough in the jet stream will interact with some moisture and energy tied in with the forward side of Tropical Storm Nadine. In the past few days, the weather computer models have disagreed on the eventual outcome, with some developing an area of low pressure that moves across us and others not.

However, today there seems to be more agreement amongst the various models which favour this interaction taking place, with an area of low pressure forming and moving over the UK later this weekend. How much uncertainty is there? Whilst the area of low pressure looks likely to form, I think the uncertainty lies in its track, how developed it will be, and when it will arrive. The latest information suggests that it may arrive across southern parts of the UK later on Sunday, before moving further northwards overnight into Monday.

This would bring a spell of rain and brisk winds, although the intensity of the rain and exact strength of the winds will depend on how developed the low pressure system ends up being.Despite Sunday’s forecast looking uncertain, it’s worth highlighting that most places on Saturday will have a fine day with sunny spells after a chilly start.

http://blogs.channel...st-weekend/2109

[simon29]

Could the potential low that forms from nadine become stronger than nadine or is that not possible.