Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[knocker]

I really can't remember if this paper has been posted before, if so please ignore.

Arctic sea ice variability and trends, 1979–2010

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/6/881/2012/tc-6-881-2012.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Average May 1st to August 15th SIE

Same again but with SIA

That's a 16% drop for SIE and a 22% drop for SIA during high summer (roughly!)

[quest4peace]

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The latest IJIS value : 4,079,844 km² (September 30, 2012)

Increase of roughly 43k as of yesterday's date

Edited October 1, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Still lagging 07' though? I really though that, as with 07' , there would be such an area of waters ready for refreeze beyond 80N that we would see figure jump up initially (as my guess for Sept mean attests to). I wonder what the hold up is?

Edited October 1, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The latest IJIS value : 4,079,844 km² (September 30, 2012)

Increase of roughly 43k as of yesterday's date

Hi Q4P. While the increase is good to see, by comparing it to the average increase for the time of year, we can get a little more perspective.

The average daily increase for the last week of September (based on the iJIS data) is about 56k/day. This year we've only managed 37k/day.

Plenty of time for things to change in October though!

Edited October 1, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[quest4peace]

Still lagging 07' though? I really though that, as with 07' , there would be such an area of waters ready for refreeze beyond 80N that we would see figure jump up initially (as my guess for Sept mean attests to). I wonder what the hold up is?

Hi Gray Wolf SSts? Even i can see that the lines aren't really comparable yet sadly I was kinda hoping you guys would tell me, whether the increase was anywhere near normal, on the daily basis at least, but never the twain shall meet as far as 2007 and 2012 are concerned for the moment.

High Q4P. While the increase is good to see, by comparing it to the average increase for the time of year, we can get a little more perspective.

The average daily increase for the last week of September (based on the iJIS data) is about 56k/day. This year we've only managed 37k/day.

Plenty of time for things to change in October though!

Hi BFTV I was kind of fishing, for somebody to tell me the increases we should be getting Still rather grim looking at the moment. Still in the unknown for now for even you guys :/ Hopefully october will surprise us with above average gains, but like you guys always say "Extent" is only half the story and doesn't guarantee the right thicknesses

Edited October 1, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Q4P!

Is it just me or is it really odd that a 'Weather Site' can be so totally ignorant/disinterested of the importance, to their favourite subject, that the Arctic brings?

I see far larger traffic trying to understand the links between the stratosphere on our weather than we ever see in here and yet the links to impacts on our weather appear to be far greater from Arctic ice loss than from SSW's and far less fickle in that you can guarantee impacts (unlike SSW's).

Could it be that 'weather Geeks' accept changes to the science of prediction of Weather but not to the changes to the actual system producing the Weather?

I can understand the snow freaks baulking at folk telling them 'winter is dead' and that snow is a thing of the past but why to changes that bring areas of our hemisphere deep polar plunges (or is it the fear of the WAA events that balance these event out?).

Anyhow the seemingly slow start to re-freeze after such a disastrous melt season does fill me with some foreboding as to just what will unfold as melt season progresses.

[stewfox]

Still lagging 07' though? I really though that, as with 07' , there would be such an area of waters ready for refreeze beyond 80N that we would see figure jump up initially (as my guess for Sept mean attests to). I wonder what the hold up is?

Surely dark open water is still 'warm'. 07 and 11 show a real lag by mid October to other years. I would assume we shouldn't catch up till end November and thats still short of long term averages.

This time in the 1980s were close to 8,000,000 sq km we are now just passed 4,000,000 sq km cf Area of France 543,965 sq km .

The fact we are seeing no sign of decent jumps ie 150,000 KM every day shows how poor things are.

Edited October 1, 2012 by stewfox

[January Snowstorm]

I suppose even though artic ice is disappearing at alarming rates recent Winters have been signifcantly colder than normal.

Leaving aside last Winter, the previous two were awesome for cold lovers and pbly beyond most peoples expectations.

If Ice melt in the artic means oil exploration leading to cheaper oil, colder UK Winters etc etc is it such a bad thing

The vast majority just want snow in their backyard and whether ice is a metre thick in the arctic or wafer thin isn't relevent.

[quest4peace]

Hi Q4P!

Is it just me or is it really odd that a 'Weather Site' can be so totally ignorant/disinterested of the importance, to their favourite subject, that the Arctic brings?

I see far larger traffic trying to understand the links between the stratosphere on our weather than we ever see in here and yet the links to impacts on our weather appear to be far greater from Arctic ice loss than from SSW's and far less fickle in that you can guarantee impacts (unlike SSW's).

Could it be that 'weather Geeks' accept changes to the science of prediction of Weather but not to the changes to the actual system producing the Weather?

I can understand the snow freaks baulking at folk telling them 'winter is dead' and that snow is a thing of the past but why to changes that bring areas of our hemisphere deep polar plunges (or is it the fear of the WAA events that balance these event out?).

Anyhow the seemingly slow start to re-freeze after such a disastrous melt season does fill me with some foreboding as to just what will unfold as melt season progresses.

This isn't going to be a complex or technical post but....firstly we haven't even reached the 2007 24th sept min figure yet by the way a week on from that date

The lower amount of summer ice, seems to of given us a few pretty cold blasts in recent years, due to the pattern changes the following winter ,at the cost of the air not staying where it's needed for ice development. Mainly December (-20 odd in 2010 ) when the sun is weakest (uk) and then milding up in our traditionally supposed coldest months Jan and Feb. I wish we could know for definite what nature has in store for us and the Arctic. Everything is haywire at the moment with places like the Uk having once in a 100 year mega freezes and more northern latitude areas having freakishly mild spells The absolute spot on fact is the old "Berlin wall" type ice has diminished before our eyes and that ice was 100's? or thousands of years old? that can't be denied by anybody, putting polar wildlife at risk . But what is "actually" next? do we keep spiraling to infinity and armageddon? or does the system get another jolt and we get a slight correction back to normalish conditions, are we still underestimating the power of mother nature's trick of equalising things again? Haven't a clue But she's giving us a scare at the mo

Edited October 2, 2012 by quest4peace

[laserguy]

I suppose even though artic ice is disappearing at alarming rates recent Winters have been signifcantly colder than normal.

Leaving aside last Winter, the previous two were awesome for cold lovers and pbly beyond most peoples expectations.

If Ice melt in the artic means oil exploration leading to cheaper oil, colder UK Winters etc etc is it such a bad thing

The vast majority just want snow in their backyard and whether ice is a metre thick in the arctic or wafer thin isn't relevent.

Global warming eh, what's not to love about it?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Q4P, JS!

I think that nature will 'balance things out' and I'd imagine it would be a rapid transformation (of which we are currently feeling the first jolts of?) it's just that the 'balance point' can not be the old one due to the forcings the system is responding to?

The old 'normal' had quite a large range of extremes to play with and I believe the new one will have just as wide a band of extremes within it's quasi stable balance point.

I cannot escape the fact that we are now beginning to liberate part of the carbon cycle that has been out of circulation since the last interglacial and , on top of that, have introduced a fair bit of ancient carbon cycles that had been removed from the system.

If we ignore being drawn into debates and just take it as read that the size of the carbon cycle indicates the type of climate (with a reduced size bringing ice ages and an expanded size bringing warmer conditions) then we need to accept that we are bound for a warmer planet?

Though paleo-climatology can bring us climate types via proxies day to day weather is a little out of it's reach and so we are left (I imagine) doing the best we can at guessing how global atmospheric changes will impact us and at any changes to the ocean currents?

In the short term I think it is all up in the air (excuse the pun!) with the vagaries of jet positioning key to the type of 'winter experience' we have? I do feel that low solar had it's part to play in our glorious winters of 09/10, 10/11 and fear that last year may be more like the 'mean position' with the odd ,short lived . cold blast and winter postponed until Feb/March (once re-freeze has fully occurred and patterns settle down again?).

At the moment I'm feeling like I'm watching a storm brewing up north as vast amounts of energy enter a system unaccustomed to such. I am awaiting the first signs that the storm is about to break and feel that the longer re-freeze delays the more energy the storm will bring with it.

As such I'm watching the GFS for signs of a sudden and rapid alteration to the trends that appear established over the previous runs as the first 'outbreaks' start to rapidly cascade south? I'd like to be in the battle zone , be that record warmth or cold, but also do not discount the chance of being sat away from the action with merely 'average' conditions. Nadine has pricked my attention though? Though not the longest lived storm nor the most powerful there is something about her dalliance that speaks to me of the 'calm before the storm' and that once she is out of the Atlantic rapid changes might be set to occur?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I suppose even though artic ice is disappearing at alarming rates recent Winters have been signifcantly colder than normal.

Leaving aside last Winter, the previous two were awesome for cold lovers and pbly beyond most peoples expectations.

If Ice melt in the artic means oil exploration leading to cheaper oil, colder UK Winters etc etc is it such a bad thing

The vast majority just want snow in their backyard and whether ice is a metre thick in the arctic or wafer thin isn't relevent.

What it means is that we'll likely have just seasonal ice within the next decade. The thin ice doesn't act as effectively as a barrier between the atmosphere and ocean, and there is no reason to think that once we have seasonal ice the period of time that the Arctic is ice free won't continue to expand. This will result in more and more heat being stored in the Arctic Ocean during summer, and subsequently released during Autumn and Winter.

As this happens, we may start seeing later snowfall across the northern hemisphere, reducing the time for a cool down to occur. The heat release from the Arctic Ocean is already giving massive temperature anomalies across the Arctic, with monthly air temperature anomalies of over 8C, and daily anomalies climbing into the mid to high teens in recent years.

The chances are that as things continue to warm as rapidly as they are, and as the ice disappears, that this period of cooler winter weather will not last more and a decade or two.

If cheap oil and a few snowy winters are your main concern, then fair enough. But there will also be increased global temperatures, likely oil spill disasters (slightly more difficult to deal with in the Arctic), increased Greenland ice sheet melting and likely many other issues that have and haven't even been considered.

[quest4peace]

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

Around a 53k increase? as of yesterday Need to get some massive air conditioning units up there

The latest IJIS value : 4,141,094 km² (October 1, 2012)

Edited October 2, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just in time for October, the NSIDC extent begins to really climb with an increase of 119k

[quest4peace]

Just in time for October, the NSIDC extent begins to really climb with an increase of 119k

Which one is best to follow BFTV? IJIS or NSIDC? thanks in advance

Edited October 2, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Which one is best to follow BFTV? IJIS or NSIDC? thanks in advance

Depends really.

For past comparisons, the NSIDC data set is the most consistent as they've used very similar satellite sensors through most of their observations.

IJIS data is likely more accurate at the moment as they're using the most advanced sensors with much higher resolution than what the NSIDC use, but they have had to chop and change sensors a lot.

There's no real right best, just depends on what you want the data for. The one that's likely more accurate than both, is the MASIE or IMS data, also partly run by the NSIDC. That one is no good for historical comparisons though as there's a large subjective human element to it and it's not a very long data series.

[Gavin Hannah]

It would be good if the extent could catch up to the 2009 line before mid month. It could be done as there is a definitive upturn ahead of where the 2007 line began. I would put it 2 weeks ahead of 2007 if you were to compare the point where the extent really started to take off.

The 07,09,10 and 11 lines all merge about a week before November, so it will be interesting to see if it can get ahead of the curve this year.

Edited October 2, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[quest4peace]

Depends really.

For past comparisons, the NSIDC data set is the most consistent as they've used very similar satellite sensors through most of their observations.

IJIS data is likely more accurate at the moment as they're using the most advanced sensors with much higher resolution than what the NSIDC use, but they have had to chop and change sensors a lot.

There's no real right best, just depends on what you want the data for. The one that's likely more accurate than both, is the MASIE or IMS data, also partly run by the NSIDC. That one is no good for historical comparisons though as there's a large subjective human element to it and it's not a very long data series.

I'm just a casual observer think i'll flit between IJIS and IMS thanks so that's the main reason i look at these and the other graphs you guys post, watching with curiosity at what is going on in our world, must confess not always totally understanding the technical Jargon I'm interested in the arctic, from both weather,agriculture and wildlife angles to be honest. Even a Layman though should be able to see that the loss of ancient ice can't be ignored. What is ironic, for the uk at least, is that if global warming shut the gulf stream down us in the uk would actually end up with a temperature dropof 10c (is that right?) in theory because that is how much we are warmed by it?. Allowing for a rise in global warming celsius of 2 say. By that logic we'd still be 8c cooler than we are now? or doesn't it work like that?

It would be good if the extent could catch up to the 2009 line before mid month. It could be done as there is a definitive upturn ahead of where the 2007 line began. I would put it 2 weeks ahead of 2007 if you were to compare the point where the extent really started to take off.

The 07,09,10 and 11 lines all merge about a week before November, so it will be interesting to see if it can get ahead of the curve this year.

To be fair the line does look a little more vertical, so fingers crossed Cant believe were still only grazing 2007's record low at this moment though

Edited October 2, 2012 by quest4peace

[peterf]

It is quite saddening to me to see how little attention folk are paying to such an exceptional climate event across the Arctic this melt season and yet, at the same time, to see so much interest is being generated by a small and shortlived uptick in Antarctic ice conditions?

you may well be surprised how many of us are watching this thread.just not confident enough to post just yet as we're still learning.

keep up the good work.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm just a casual observer think i'll flit between IJIS and IMS thanks so that's the main reason i look at these and the other graphs you guys post, watching with curiosity at what is going on in our world, must confess not always totally understanding the technical Jargon I'm interested in the arctic, from both weather,agriculture and wildlife angles to be honest. Even a Layman though should be able to see that the loss of ancient ice can't be ignored. What is ironic, for the uk at least, is that if global warming shut the gulf stream down us in the uk would actually end up with a temperature dropof 10c (is that right?) in theory because that is how much we are warmed by it?. Allowing for a rise in global warming celsius of 2 say. By that logic we'd still be 8c cooler than we are now? or doesn't it work like that?

If there's anything you don't understand, do feel free to ask. We all started of our Arctic learnings from scratch and are still learning, so we've all been in the same situation as yourself at one stage.

The details of how much cooling we'd have if the gulf stream is something for another thread though, but it wouldn't be that much. Think the climate around Vancouver and other southern parts of the Canadian west coast and you'll get a better idea of what it might be like. We'll still have an ocean to our west with mainly westerly winds, so comparisons you see some people make with Labrador or Moscow if the gulf stream shuts down aren't realistic.

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think we need worry about a 'shutdown' of the current but the record temps of the eastern seaboard of the U.S. this summer might be a sign that it could displace to run up the side of the U.S. and into Baffin and out into Lincoln via Nares (or even into the NW Passage and out into Beaufort?).

Past shutdowns have taken unimaginable freshwater floods on a scale that could not be possible today without a sudden , instantaneous melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet (G.I.S.)

As it is it appears that the North Atlantic Drift is extending further into the Arctic basin through Barrentsz and Kara and , late in the melt season, might be helping form the 'Laptev bite' eating the ice out toward the geographic pole from the Russian side of the basin?

As the Arctic ocean becomes less stratified we should find the emergence of new surface currents as both the Atlantic and Pacific inputs become able to 'surface'.

EDIT: I'd add to what BFTV just posted that none of us are 'experts' (just yet in the case of BFTV) on the Arctic and will gladly share what we know with folk currently 'getting up to speed'!

Edited October 2, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[quest4peace]

If there's anything you don't understand, do feel free to ask. We all started of our Arctic learnings from scratch and are still learning, so we've all been in the same situation as yourself at one stage.

The details of how much cooling we'd have if the gulf stream is something for another thread though, but it wouldn't be that much. Think the climate around Vancouver and other southern parts of the Canadian west coast and you'll get a better idea of what it might be like. We'll still have an ocean to our west with mainly westerly winds, so comparisons you see some people make with Labrador or Moscow if the gulf stream shuts down aren't realistic.

I will thanks, wandered off the point of the thread a little there

I don't think we need worry about a 'shutdown' of the current but the record temps of the eastern seaboard of the U.S. this summer might be a sign that it could displace to run up the side of the U.S. and into Baffin and out into Lincoln via Nares (or even into the NW Passage and out into Beaufort?).

Past shutdowns have taken unimaginable freshwater floods on a scale that could not be possible today without a sunned , instantaneous melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet (G.I.S.)

As it is it appears that the North Atlantic Drift is extending further into the Arctic basin through Barrentsz and Kara and , late in the melt season, might be helping form the 'Laptev bite' eating the ice out toward the geographic pole from the Russian side of the basin?

As the Arctic ocean becomes less stratified we should find the emergence of new surface currents as both the Atlantic and Pacific inputs become able to 'surface'.

Oh dear doesn't sound appealing

Edited October 2, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

A good overview of the summer conditions and the Arctic sea ice minimum and well as the Antarctic Maximum by the NSIDC

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/10/poles-apart-a-record-breaking-summer-and-winter/

Poles apart: A record-breaking summer and winter

The sun has set over the central Arctic Ocean and sea ice extent is now increasing. While much attention has been paid to the record minimum Arctic ice extent set on September 16, 2012, winter sea ice extent in Antarctica has reached a record high. The Antarctic extent increase is an interesting response to changes in circulation patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

[quest4peace]

This is an Arctic Ice question honest Is there really no connection, between below average Arctic ice? and the current above average Antarctic ice? It's just really strange that this should be the case is it not, that one is dramatically increasing, and one is dramatically falling? If our Arctic ice made a recovery would the antarctic ice go back to more normal levels?. is the change in patterns around the south pole affecting our side of the world?I know that is a very simplistic way of saying things but is there an outside chance they could be linked? And causing the conditions we have currently?

Edited October 3, 2012 by quest4peace