Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[quest4peace]

Thanks for the updates BFTV all information is welcome and quite intruiging to say the least

Edited September 26, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for the updates BFTV all information is welcome and quite intruiging to say the least

No problem!

Final one here for the night.

It seems the first >+10C surface air temperature anomalies are appearing widely across the Arctic now, with a few spots showing 12.5-15C +ve anomalies.

[quest4peace]

I guess it's almost like the effect the gulf stream has on the uk warming us 10c warmer than we would normally, for our lattitude although more permanent for us it stands to reason that if the warmer than normal water from the gulf stream has such an effect on our shores, then allbeit on a much less permanent and seasonal basis the arctic air temps will be affected by the heat gathered over summer in the arctic ocean.All makes sense now

Edited September 26, 2012 by quest4peace

[Polar Maritime]

Before and after: Arctic sea ice in 1984 and 2012

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-27/arctic-sea-ice-maps-before-after-1984-2012/4283418

[Coast]

Definitely on the increase now, but will it regain itself to last years levels and what will it melt to next year?

OPINION : It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of what is currently unfolding in the Arctic region

THE TRUTH, as Winston Churchill put it, is incontrovertible. “Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.†Scrape away the layers of denial, obfuscation and spin that cloud climate change and one unvarnished truth emerges: the Arctic ice cap is dying – and, with it, humanity’s best hopes for a prosperous, predictable future.

In the most dramatic reconfiguration of the map of the world since the end of the last Ice Age, the Arctic ice cap is now committed to accelerated collapse. In 2007, the intergovernmental panel on climate change warned that, unless emissions were drastically curbed globally, the Arctic ocean could be clear of summer sea ice towards the end of this century.

They were hopelessly optimistic. On September 16th last, Arctic sea ice hit its lowest level ever recorded, at 3.41 million sq km, barely half the 1979-2000 average. The area of sea ice lost is 41 times larger than the island of Ireland. While the drop in sea ice extent is alarming, the 72 per cent decline in its volume is worse. Not only is ice cover shrinking, the surviving ice is thinning precipitously. Prof Peter Wadhams of the Polar Ocean Physics Group described the September 2012 figures as a “global disasterâ€. He now projects the destruction of Arctic summer sea ice by 2015-16 – more than half a century ahead of the IPCC’s projections. “The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates,†he added.

It is difficult to overstate the magnitude of what is now unfolding in the Arctic region. The Arctic ice cap used to cover 2 per cent of the Earth’s surface, and the ice albedo effect meant vast amounts of solar energy were bounced back into space from the bright white ice mass. Losing this ice, and replacing it with dark open ocean, creates a dramatic tipping point in planetary energy balance. “The extra radiation that’s absorbed is, from our calculations, the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man,†Prof Wadhams said.

With global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions already spiralling far beyond the levels that scientists have warned present grave risks to humanity, the injection of a massive new source of additional energy into Earth systems could hardly have come at a worse time. The northern hemisphere is experiencing sharp foretastes of future climate destabilisation driven by the Arctic meltdown.

The jet stream, which operates between the cold Arctic and the warmer mid-latitudes, dominates much of our weather, and it is weakening and becoming more erratic as Arctic ice melt accelerates and the region warms. The severe cold snaps that brought Ireland to a shivering halt in 2010 and 2011, as well as this summer’s relentless rainfall, are probably connected to Arctic ice cover loss. Jet stream weakness is leading to what are known as blocking events – episodes of extreme weather, be they droughts, freezes or flooding, persisting for unusually long periods. The Russian heatwave of 2010 and the extreme US drought this summer are two more related events. “We’re in uncharted territory,†says James Overland of the University of Washington. The weakening jet stream means “wild temperature swings and greater numbers of extreme eventsâ€. The last time the Arctic is believed to have been ice-free is during the Eemian period, about 125,000 years ago, when global sea levels were between four and six metres higher than today. However, current atmospheric CO2 levels are already far higher than during the Eemian; indeed, you would have to go back several million years to find any era in the Earth’s history to match today’s levels of this powerful heat-trapping “greenhouse gasâ€.

Lags in the system mean that we have so far experienced only the very mildest of the effects of the ever-growing heat imbalance in our climate system. In July, another stark regional landmark was recorded. In the course of just four days, surface ice melt spread from 40 to 97 per cent of Greenland. “This was so extraordinary that at first I questioned the result: was this real or was it due to a data error?†said Son Nghiem of Nasa. Meanwhile, between 2003 and 2008 more than 2,000 billion tonnes of land ice from Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted.

As the Arctic summer ice pack is floating, its melt does not directly raise sea levels, but as it spirals towards final destruction, all bets are off as to the stability of the adjacent massive land-based Greenland ice pack. There is enough frozen water locked up here to raise global sea levels by six to seven metres over time. One person’s global catastrophe is another’s commercial opportunity. Governments and energy companies, notably Shell, are busy jostling to be in position to loot the oil and minerals hidden beneath the region’s fast-disappearing ice. This is akin to setting your house on fire to keep yourself warm.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2012/0927/1224324469890.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a small increase in the IJIS extent today of 14k, compared to an average for the last week of September of around 45k/day. A typical increase between the 26th and 30th of September is almost 200k, so 2012 needs to get a move on!

[Gray-Wolf]

We had to see an initial up-spurt in ice formation as the higher latitudes, with open water, fell into Arctic night but what of the lower latitudes that have been under sun and wind all summer (from May at least?).

Maybe this is the first time we get to see what the mixing of the top layers can mean to re-freeze and also , by continued mixing, how much of that heat will make it back into the climate system (and the impacts that will bring us?)

Far from being the 'quiet time of year' for the Arctic this autumn may prove to be a very interesting spectacle? Once spring melt takes the Antarctic sea ice away from the equation it will be interesting to see the global sea ice anom as we head into winter up north?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just noticed that the ARCUS sea ice outlook had updated (I don't know when though), including the netweather sea ice extent prediction, which we now know was way off!

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/august/update

[jethro]

We had to see an initial up-spurt in ice formation as the higher latitudes, with open water, fell into Arctic night but what of the lower latitudes that have been under sun and wind all summer (from May at least?).

Maybe this is the first time we get to see what the mixing of the top layers can mean to re-freeze and also , by continued mixing, how much of that heat will make it back into the climate system (and the impacts that will bring us?)

Far from being the 'quiet time of year' for the Arctic this autumn may prove to be a very interesting spectacle? Once spring melt takes the Antarctic sea ice away from the equation it will be interesting to see the global sea ice anom as we head into winter up north?

Surely from a longer term perspective the mixing and the loss of ocean heat to the atmosphere has got to be a good thing.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not following that J'?

If we see the continued impacts on the Polar jet that a warmer pole brings then we just invite more WAA into the basin further weakening ice development over winter (never mind the climate swings it imposes on the temperate regions further south?) leading to an earlier melt out date the following year (due to lack of ice thickness/lack of ice) and even more potential for 'new energy' to become available to the climate system.

Let us also not forget that we have enough 'deep buried' warmth in the basin to keep the ocean ice free throughout winter and the more homogeneous the water column becomes the closer we are to seeing a year round ice free basin. The impacts on the surrounding land over winter do not bare thinking about esp. with regard to the carbon reserves held in the permafrost across the northern lands?

I would think it helpful if we all accepted that the changes we have seen occurring to ice extents over summer will be hard to undo? Since 07' we have seen ice volume plummet without any 'special' weather across the basin. If average weather leads to ablation then surely it will take exceptional cold to begin to reclaim the losses and, as we saw this summer, any gains made can be lost over 1 season even though they took many to accrue?

As I've maintained all along we have past a point of no return in the Arctic and so it may prove more useful to imagine 'what next' than to try and work out how things could reverse. The potential for 'natural GHG outpourings' is there and both the mechanisms of how this will unfold and the impacts it will drive will prove useful in preparing for the events.

I feel that no matter where you stand on the global warming issue the next ten years will leave everyone in no doubt that the impacts of the warming are impacting us now and are not a thing reserved for our grandchildren to inherit.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Agree with much of what you say GW. While the heat release from the ocean is a negative feedback in and of itself, it also promotes several positive feedback mechanisms such as increased snowfall to insulate the ice, warming of the air allowing stronger upper ridges to penetrate the Arctic, as well as a certain amount of the warmth being retained and transferred elsewhere in the ocean.

Of course they then have some -ve feedbacks too, increased land snow cover in late Autumn, increased low level cloudiness increasing albedo, increased snowfall for glacier growth etc. It's all incredibly complicated, but as we've seen the Arctic warm faster than anywhere else on the planet, I think it's safe to assume the +ve feebacks are massively overwhelming the -ve so far.

Another below average gain on IJIS today of 37K, compared to the 50k average at this time of year.

[Interitus]

Agree with much of what you say GW. While the heat release from the ocean is a negative feedback in and of itself, it also promotes several positive feedback mechanisms such as increased snowfall to insulate the ice, warming of the air allowing stronger upper ridges to penetrate the Arctic, as well as a certain amount of the warmth being retained and transferred elsewhere in the ocean.

Of course they then have some -ve feedbacks too, increased land snow cover in late Autumn, increased low level cloudiness increasing albedo, increased snowfall for glacier growth etc. It's all incredibly complicated, but as we've seen the Arctic warm faster than anywhere else on the planet, I think it's safe to assume the +ve feebacks are massively overwhelming the -ve so far.

Increased Arctic cloudiness may actually be more of a +ve feedback as its role of inhibiting radiation is stronger than its impact on albedo, as discussed here for example -

"Can a Convective Cloud Feedback Help to Eliminate Winter Sea Ice at High CO2 Concentrations?"

http://journals.amet.../2009JCLI2854.1

[BornFromTheVoid]

Increased Arctic cloudiness may actually be more of a +ve feedback as its role of inhibiting radiation is stronger than its impact on albedo, as discussed here for example -

"Can a Convective Cloud Feedback Help to Eliminate Winter Sea Ice at High CO2 Concentrations?"

http://journals.amet.../2009JCLI2854.1

Cheers, looks interesting. Just having read the abstract, that seems to be related more so to winter/spring upper level cloud cover, where as the summer/autumn cloud cover seems to be mostly near the surface, which would act mainly as a -ve feedback I think.

I wonder if the methane/noctilucent cloud cover relationship could contribute to another +ve feedback during summer months ?

[Interitus]

I'm not following that J'?

If we see the continued impacts on the Polar jet that a warmer pole brings then we just invite more WAA into the basin further weakening ice development over winter (never mind the climate swings it imposes on the temperate regions further south?) leading to an earlier melt out date the following year (due to lack of ice thickness/lack of ice) and even more potential for 'new energy' to become available to the climate system.

Let us also not forget that we have enough 'deep buried' warmth in the basin to keep the ocean ice free throughout winter and the more homogeneous the water column becomes the closer we are to seeing a year round ice free basin. The impacts on the surrounding land over winter do not bare thinking about esp. with regard to the carbon reserves held in the permafrost across the northern lands?

I would think it helpful if we all accepted that the changes we have seen occurring to ice extents over summer will be hard to undo? Since 07' we have seen ice volume plummet without any 'special' weather across the basin. If average weather leads to ablation then surely it will take exceptional cold to begin to reclaim the losses and, as we saw this summer, any gains made can be lost over 1 season even though they took many to accrue?

As I've maintained all along we have past a point of no return in the Arctic and so it may prove more useful to imagine 'what next' than to try and work out how things could reverse. The potential for 'natural GHG outpourings' is there and both the mechanisms of how this will unfold and the impacts it will drive will prove useful in preparing for the events.

I feel that no matter where you stand on the global warming issue the next ten years will leave everyone in no doubt that the impacts of the warming are impacting us now and are not a thing reserved for our grandchildren to inherit.

We are seeing summer warming of water in ice-free areas as noted by a near surface temperature maximum (NSTM) which is thought to contribute to thinning of ice from below (even) in winter, as discussed here -

"Winter sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean" - http://www.agu.org/j...011GL050219.pdf

But it's wrong to just consider "special weather" for recent ice loss such as 2007 as other factors have played a part, for example -

"The 2007 Bering Strait oceanic heat flux and anomalous Arctic sea-ice retreat" - http://www.agu.org/p...9GL041621.shtml

To illuminate the role of Pacific Waters in the 2007 Arctic sea-ice retreat, we use observational data to estimate Bering Strait volume and heat transports from 1991 to 2007. In 2007, both annual mean transport and temperatures are at record-length highs. Heat fluxes increase from 2001 to a 2007 maximum, 5–6 × 1020 J/yr. This is twice the 2001 heat flux, comparable to the annual shortwave radiative flux into the Chukchi Sea, and enough to melt 1/3rd of the 2007 seasonal Arctic sea-ice loss. We suggest the Bering Strait inflow influences sea-ice by providing a trigger for the onset of solar-driven melt, a conduit for oceanic heat into the Arctic, and (due to long transit times) a subsurface heat source within the Arctic in winter. The substantial interannual variability reflects temperature and transport changes, the latter (especially recently) being significantly affected by variability (> 0.2 Sv equivalent) in the Pacific-Arctic pressure-head driving the flow.

Regarding points of no return, modelling shows that the ice formation tends to self-equilibrate in balance with temperatures so that an anomalously low summer extent can recover (to the average for the time) within a couple of years, for scenarios predicted for this century -

"Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice" - http://www.agu.org/j...2/2010GL045698/

The features that act to recover ice loss are naturally intrinsic in preventing homogenisation of the Arctic water, preserving stratification. Understanding the Arctic water formation is a very active research area but there doesn't appear to be much research contemplating a year round ice free Arctic.

Indeed the concept represents something of a conundrum as explored in this interesting work -

"The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited" - http://www.clim-past...-7-241-2011.pdf

early Eocene winter temperatures in deep water formation regions, located at the surface in high latitudes, could not have dropped much below

10°C, consistent with the high-latitude occurrence of frost-intolerant flora and fauna

Previous modelling has struggled to result in these conditions of warm winter continents and poles, but their conclusion is that it can be achieved with suitably large radiative forcing from GHGs.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We are seeing summer warming of water in ice-free areas as noted by a near surface temperature maximum (NSTM) which is thought to contribute to thinning of ice from below (even) in winter, as discussed here -

"Winter sea-ice melt in the Canada Basin, Arctic Ocean" - http://www.agu.org/j...011GL050219.pdf

But it's wrong to just consider "special weather" for recent ice loss such as 2007 as other factors have played a part, for example -

"The 2007 Bering Strait oceanic heat flux and anomalous Arctic sea-ice retreat" - http://www.agu.org/p...9GL041621.shtml

To illuminate the role of Pacific Waters in the 2007 Arctic sea-ice retreat, we use observational data to estimate Bering Strait volume and heat transports from 1991 to 2007. In 2007, both annual mean transport and temperatures are at record-length highs. Heat fluxes increase from 2001 to a 2007 maximum, 5–6 × 1020 J/yr. This is twice the 2001 heat flux, comparable to the annual shortwave radiative flux into the Chukchi Sea, and enough to melt 1/3rd of the 2007 seasonal Arctic sea-ice loss. We suggest the Bering Strait inflow influences sea-ice by providing a trigger for the onset of solar-driven melt, a conduit for oceanic heat into the Arctic, and (due to long transit times) a subsurface heat source within the Arctic in winter. The substantial interannual variability reflects temperature and transport changes, the latter (especially recently) being significantly affected by variability (> 0.2 Sv equivalent) in the Pacific-Arctic pressure-head driving the flow.

Regarding points of no return, modelling shows that the ice formation tends to self-equilibrate in balance with temperatures so that an anomalously low summer extent can recover (to the average for the time) within a couple of years, for scenarios predicted for this century -

"Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice" - http://www.agu.org/j...2/2010GL045698/

The features that act to recover ice loss are naturally intrinsic in preventing homogenisation of the Arctic water, preserving stratification. Understanding the Arctic water formation is a very active research area but there doesn't appear to be much research contemplating a year round ice free Arctic.

Indeed the concept represents something of a conundrum as explored in this interesting work -

"The early Eocene equable climate problem revisited" - http://www.clim-past...-7-241-2011.pdf

early Eocene winter temperatures in deep water formation regions, located at the surface in high latitudes, could not have dropped much below

10°C, consistent with the high-latitude occurrence of frost-intolerant flora and fauna

Previous modelling has struggled to result in these conditions of warm winter continents and poles, but their conclusion is that it can be achieved with suitably large radiative forcing from GHGs.

Good post. I'd argue though, that the "special weather" of 07 also contributed to the anomalous heat flux throught the Bering strait in 07, and is in part a symptom of an stronger Arctic Dipole Anomaly and the +ve PDO up to that point. The dipole driver water away from the Bering strait and the +ve PDO contributing to the higher surface water temperatures.

I think we need to be cautious with projections done through models, as we've seen, most models have had a poor handle on it so far. As far as tipping points go, I think we are on the course to essentially seasonal ice within the next decade, even if we managed to halt CO2 emissions at this moment.

I don't think the Arctic is near equilibrium with the current temperatures, so anomalous ice loss in one year will continue to hasten the decline for now. Since 2007, we've failed to reach any of the minima before that anomalous loss. it will be interesting to see if this year causes a similar step change downward.

[Interitus]

Good post. I'd argue though, that the "special weather" of 07 also contributed to the anomalous heat flux throught the Bering strait in 07, and is in part a symptom of an stronger Arctic Dipole Anomaly and the +ve PDO up to that point. The dipole driver water away from the Bering strait and the +ve PDO contributing to the higher surface water temperatures.

I think we need to be cautious with projections done through models, as we've seen, most models have had a poor handle on it so far. As far as tipping points go, I think we are on the course to essentially seasonal ice within the next decade, even if we managed to halt CO2 emissions at this moment.

I don't think the Arctic is near equilibrium with the current temperatures, so anomalous ice loss in one year will continue to hasten the decline for now. Since 2007, we've failed to reach any of the minima before that anomalous loss. it will be interesting to see if this year causes a similar step change downward.

Yes I agree with this assessment.

Incidentally, lest anyone takes heart in the ice's ability to recover, the authors of that modelling are in no doubt that the ice is on a downward trend partly caused by external forcing for which the only reasonable explanation is CO2 -

"Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat" - http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051094.shtml

We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self-acceleration as an explanation for the observed long-term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea-ice minima. Instead, the recent retreat is well described by the superposition of an externally forced linear trend and internal variability. For the externally forced trend, we find a physically plausible strong correlation only with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration.

It's the normalisation of the Arctic ocean as GW refers to it, so it might be largely ice free all year and how this might happen I find particularly intriguing. The evidence and science is against it for now, but could it even possibly happen in our lifetimes? Would this be a step change/tipping point, or merely a continuum of winter ice cover - open in the centre with varying degrees of continental shelf ice?

Edited September 28, 2012 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yes I agree with this assessment.

It's the normalisation of the Arctic ocean as GW refers to it, so it might be largely ice free all year and how this might happen I find particularly intriguing. The evidence and science is against it for now, but could it even possibly happen in our lifetimes? Would this be a step change/tipping point, or merely a continuum of winter ice cover - open in the centre with varying degrees of continental shelf ice?

It's a tough one predict.

I think it will take a while longer before we can have an Arctic Ocean de-stratified and warm enough to create a year round ice free ocean. The extra run off from Greenland, extra precipitation and run off from the continents should, I imagine, so enough to keep even a thing fresh water layer across the surface, even if only in the shallow shelf areas as you say.

At the same time, few could have predicted how quickly the ice would disappear even up to now, and the reports during the August storm of churning of the halocline down to 200m does make you wonder.

The extra open water may even begin to generate new surface currents. Hints that the "Laptev bite" could have been from water being deflected up from the Lomonosov ridge. Earlier in the summer, the northward flow through Nares was dominant for a few weeks, pushing back and melting a large swath of ice in around the Lincoln Sea. That would be quite a change if it became more established.

[keithlucky]

http://www.climatede...n-ice-reduction

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.climatede...n-ice-reduction

Were your kin taking great umbridge about folk calling this a 'unique' occurence at the time?

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS had an average extent increase yesterday of 47k

NSIDC had the largest extent increase so far this refreeze with a jump of 75k

CT had another below average increase of 30k to take the anomaly back to 2.5million km2.

[Interitus]

There is a good blog following the AWI research ship Polarstern, with their research and the conditions and their surprise at how broken the ice has been. They determined to press towards the pole to revisit some of their most northerly ice camps as those <88°N were now in open water, but had to make a quick diversion to Kirkenes in Norway to offload an injured passenger.

The blog can be found here http://www.awi.de/en...vii/ark_xxvii3/

Since their last update they returned north in the past week and eventually found pack ice, but from the synop reports it looks like conditions have caught them on the hop, with them at one point at 89°12N reporting ICE 18099 = "Ship beset. Ship in ice difficult to penetrate; conditions worsening." Temperatures have since fallen to -16C with maximums below -10C

The next blog update should be interesting!

The Polarstern blog has been updated - http://www.awi.de/en/infrastructure/ships/polarstern/weekly_reports/all_expeditions/ark_xxvii/ark_xxvii3/24_september_2012/

It's an interesting read but here is a snippet regarding the ice conditions they encountered recently -

After finishing the 7th ice station on Thursday, we hoped to be able to further steam north, to reach the North pole before the end of the week. Our goal was to achieve the first deep sea in situ measurements at 90°N, so far away from the Arctic continents, at > 4100 m water depth. Also, we had been looking forward to the high resolution images from the seafloor: What lives there, and who knows in which direction all the sea cucumbers crawl? But nature was not supportive of our tight travel plan – just 45 miles away from the pole, the ship got stuck in the ice, again and again. In the early morning hours of Friday we had to give up not to risk the scientific program – as the cruise will soon be coming to an end. The ice was not unusually thick, but the wind had pressed large ice floes together, which were overfrozen with snow. When we reached average speeds of 1 knot it was clear we had to return. Yesterday, at 88° 49’ N and 58°E we reached another ice floe for our 8th ice station. At least the weather is now on our side: blue skies and a permanent sunset. The Arctic autumn in in full progress – with air temperatures already dropping below -12°C, and freezing melt ponds. What a beautiful sight!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the NSIDC extent, it seems 2012 occupies the lowest 36 extent days on record, and you have to go back to 256 places to find a day before 2007

[Gray-Wolf]

It is quite saddening to me to see how little attention folk are paying to such an exceptional climate event across the Arctic this melt season and yet, at the same time, to see so much interest is being generated by a small and shortlived uptick in Antarctic ice conditions?

Edited September 30, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Nights King]

It is quite saddening to me to see how little attention folk are paying to such an exceptional climate event across the Arctic this melt season and yet, at the same time, to see so much interest is being generated by a small and shortlived uptick in Antarctic ice conditions?

I think it is more of a case of people are interested in antarctica because its nice to see some thing abit different from the normal its all melting doom and gloom... Arctic is well covered by every media source of late.

Will be interesting to see if it gets greater extent at minimum down there too?

[quest4peace]

The Ijis value : 4,037,500 km² (September 29, 2012)

Surely it should be catching 2007 up at least Late developer?