Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[BornFromTheVoid]

CT has another large increase of about 60k, totalling 240k over the last 4 days. The area refreeze has certainly begun now. Meanwhile, NSIDC extent grew by just 10k, and just 78k over the last 4 days, so quite a bit slower off the mark.

How long will the above average area growth continue? Is this just the Arctic Basin freezing over? Will the growth slow below average as other areas being to freeze? How will the mild SSTs affect the sea ice anomalies during October?

Plenty to look out for over the next few weeks.

[Harve]

Complete amateur here:

We seem to have lost the vast majority of the Arctic's ability to reflect heat now - while extent maxima may not have decreased substantially, the extent between April and August, when the sun is at its strongest, is clearly far less than yesteryear.

What would worry me is if it turns out that the Arctic's incapable of cooling down as much as it did in Autumn and Winter, as that really does signal extreme warning for the rest of the world, too, as the poles could be said to be responsible for balancing-out the earth's climate.

For example, the UK's northerlies become gradually less potent and in general the warm anomalies are distributed equator-wards.

Given the seemingly perpetual positive anomalies on our side of the Arctic around Svalbard, north-eastern Canada and Western Greenland, it seems this may be the case.

[oldsnowywizard]

Interesting that SSTs in Bering are in most places much colder than in the basin..http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php?img=sst... does anyone have any archive SSTs for this site? i dont recall seeing SSTs that cool in such a large area of Bearing at this time of year.. I would expect that this area will go nuts again this winter... additional fresh water from summer melt probably the cause...

[Gray-Wolf]

Complete amateur here:

We seem to have lost the vast majority of the Arctic's ability to reflect heat now - while extent maxima may not have decreased substantially, the extent between April and August, when the sun is at its strongest, is clearly far less than yesteryear.

What would worry me is if it turns out that the Arctic's incapable of cooling down as much as it did in Autumn and Winter, as that really does signal extreme warning for the rest of the world, too, as the poles could be said to be responsible for balancing-out the earth's climate.

For example, the UK's northerlies become gradually less potent and in general the warm anomalies are distributed equator-wards.

Given the seemingly perpetual positive anomalies on our side of the Arctic around Svalbard, north-eastern Canada and Western Greenland, it seems this may be the case.

This is kind of my view on the very lowest level of the atmosphere's changes. For over a decade now we have been seeing less and less winter ice in Barentsz/Kara sea areas. At ones time these areas were another stronghold of the 'old Perrenial' ice and so would have winter 2m temps of -30c or more. We now have open water there all winter so the contact surface, between ocean and air, must be above -2c? For anyone downwind of these areas this must be quite a 'milding' to local temps?

We now see over 2/3rds of the basin under open water conditions in early Autumn. Even if temps were an average of -5c across this area the fact it is now open water must place the temps a number of degrees C higher?

I'm not going into the constant supply of warmer air entering the atmosphere above the water, and it's impacts broader afield , just this 2m temp anom. f we look at the amount of energy it represents it is a staggeringly large source of 'new' energy within the closed climate system? How can such a large wallop of energy not impact the local environment (and then wider influence via teleconnections?). The most instant impact much be the lessening of the thickness of the ice cover able to form? Also the loss of the early season snows that used to lie on this new formed ice?

Come melt season we have less of the most reflective part of the ice (fresh snow) and less of the ice below. Studies show that ice can allow the sun's energy into the ocean below if it is less than 1m thick and we appear to have large areas of FY ice making less than 1m thick (Beaufort and East Siberian last year) so the open water is already appearing within the basin before solar insolation reaches it's highest in summer further adding to the heat it absorbs over summer.

This year we have seen the basin absorb more energy than ever before witnessed. Surely this will have it's impacts?

With last year as a template I'd imagine a very H.P. dominated autumn for us here in the U.K. (with recurve 'cane remnants pushing through a few times?) with warm nights and warm, grey/sunny days/ The lack of cold flooding south will allow temps to remain higher throughout October?

[4wd]

With last year as a template I'd imagine a very H.P. dominated autumn for us here in the U.K. (with recurve 'cane remnants pushing through a few times?) with warm nights and warm, grey/sunny days/ The lack of cold flooding south will allow temps to remain higher throughout October?

Why would HP dominated weather give warm nights?

Temperatures are already cooler than normal.

Otherwise that prediction is a description of normal weather in NW Europe during autumn.

I'm still entirely unconvinced that the increased open water doesn't allow cooling rather than increase warming.

The North Sea cools pretty well over winter and continues to cool into April and it doesn't have ice - plus it's much further south.

The ice extent isn't all that different up there until late summer when the sun's energy at high latitude is trivial.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The IMS extent, 3,398,000km2, is currently still falling and (up to the 20th) lower than both the NSIDC and IJIS extents for the same date, of 3,525,200km2 and 3,780,000km2.

http://www.natice.no...ea_ice_only.jpg

[Methuselah]

This is kind of my view on the very lowest level of the atmosphere's changes. For over a decade now we have been seeing less and less winter ice in Barentsz/Kara sea areas. At ones time these areas were another stronghold of the 'old Perrenial' ice and so would have winter 2m temps of -30c or more. We now have open water there all winter so the contact surface, between ocean and air, must be above -2c? For anyone downwind of these areas this must be quite a 'milding' to local temps?

We now see over 2/3rds of the basin under open water conditions in early Autumn. Even if temps were an average of -5c across this area the fact it is now open water must place the temps a number of degrees C higher?

I'm not going into the constant supply of warmer air entering the atmosphere above the water, and it's impacts broader afield , just this 2m temp anom. f we look at the amount of energy it represents it is a staggeringly large source of 'new' energy within the closed climate system? How can such a large wallop of energy not impact the local environment (and then wider influence via teleconnections?). The most instant impact much be the lessening of the thickness of the ice cover able to form? Also the loss of the early season snows that used to lie on this new formed ice?

Come melt season we have less of the most reflective part of the ice (fresh snow) and less of the ice below. Studies show that ice can allow the sun's energy into the ocean below if it is less than 1m thick and we appear to have large areas of FY ice making less than 1m thick (Beaufort and East Siberian last year) so the open water is already appearing within the basin before solar insolation reaches it's highest in summer further adding to the heat it absorbs over summer.

This year we have seen the basin absorb more energy than ever before witnessed. Surely this will have it's impacts?

With last year as a template I'd imagine a very H.P. dominated autumn for us here in the U.K. (with recurve 'cane remnants pushing through a few times?) with warm nights and warm, grey/sunny days/ The lack of cold flooding south will allow temps to remain higher throughout October?

I'm none too sure about your 'warm nights' expectation either, Ian...Wouldn't it entirely depend on where any HP block situates itself?

[Gray-Wolf]

Sure does Pete! If we see the Jet favour a Bartlett over southern Europe/Med with the S/SW flow for us coupled with the type of stagnant L.P. systems we've seen most of the summer (forming and doing a 'Nadine' until they fill) to the SE of Greenland then we'll have the benefits of a near constant SSwesterly ( from a very warm Atlantic...with the sub trop area not churned up by a constant stream of 'canes forming in the East Atlantic and working W/NW) then i think we'd be OK?

As the Jet slips south (and away from it's current 'spot') we should find ourselves 'mid-limb' with instead of 'entrance to trough'?

See where I'm hoping from?

[Interitus]

CT has another large increase of about 60k, totalling 240k over the last 4 days. The area refreeze has certainly begun now. Meanwhile, NSIDC extent grew by just 10k, and just 78k over the last 4 days, so quite a bit slower off the mark.

How long will the above average area growth continue? Is this just the Arctic Basin freezing over? Will the growth slow below average as other areas being to freeze? How will the mild SSTs affect the sea ice anomalies during October?

Plenty to look out for over the next few weeks.

There has been some consolidation of the pack - refreeze occurs more easily where there is some ice already and this could be seen in the Healy pics of last week where ice was present there was visible new ice and temperatures were typically between -4c to -8c but as soon as open water was reached, still at the same latitude of 80°N temperatures were only a little below -1c.

The Healy is now headed back south towards the Bering strait.

[Gray-Wolf]

A very interesting update on this seasons melt for those new to it all?

[stewfox]

A very interesting update on this seasons melt for those new to it all?

The loss of the 'white stuff' older ice was very well illustrated. Didn't explain what 'the big problem' was but still very useful to see.

Edited September 24, 2012 by stewfox

[Nights King]

Good video gray wolf.

The interesting thing is that even in the video towards the end she says how it should open peoples eyes in that we need to act now etc etc! Lets be realistic here if the man made contributions are causing this devestating increase in global temperatures that will cause world wide catastrophe (very little in uk in comparison to other parts of world unless you live in a coastal flood plain) then there is nothing we can do to prevent this now if the tipping points are even close to being reached which quite a few including yourself suggest are. Even if the world went all out with co2 reductions which is never going to happen to the extent that would be required to halt it (if we have not passed a tipping point already) it would be too late. So that leaves us with few options... we deliberately alter the energy budget of planet in some way and risk an ice age or we sit back and do nothing.

I know which option will be taken.... nothing so we might as well sit back and enjoy the show?

Edited September 24, 2012 by mullender83

[Interitus]

Much is made of tipping points with low ice levels and the albedo feedback. However modelling shows that low ice levels in itself may not be a problem or a tipping point as underlying processes act to stabilise ice extent in an equilibrium according to temperature as this research from the Max Planck institute shows -

Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice (2011)

We examine the recovery of Arctic sea ice from prescribed ice-free summer conditions in simulations of 21st century climate in an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. We find that ice extent recovers typically within two years. The excess oceanic heat that had built up during the ice-free summer is rapidly returned to the atmosphere during the following autumn and winter, and then leaves the Arctic partly through increased longwave emission at the top of the atmosphere and partly through reduced atmospheric heat advection from lower latitudes. Oceanic heat transport does not contribute significantly to the loss of the excess heat. Our results suggest that anomalous loss of Arctic sea ice during a single summer is reversible, as the ice–albedo feedback is alleviated by large-scale recovery mechanisms. Hence, hysteretic threshold behavior (or a “tipping pointâ€) is unlikely to occur during the decline of Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the 21st century.

http://www.agu.org/p...0GL045698.shtml

Note, that this doesn't take into account other possible effects, only the amount of ice cover.

[Rainy]

Good video gray wolf.

The interesting thing is that even in the video towards the end she says how it should open peoples eyes in that we need to act now etc etc! Lets be realistic here if the man made contributions are causing this devestating increase in global temperatures that will cause world wide catastrophe (very little in uk in comparison to other parts of world unless you live in a coastal flood plain) then there is nothing we can do to prevent this now if the tipping points are even close to being reached which quite a few including yourself suggest are. Even if the world went all out with co2 reductions which is never going to happen to the extent that would be required to halt it (if we have not passed a tipping point already) it would be too late. So that leaves us with few options... we delibereately alter the energy budget of planet in some way and risk an ice age or we sit back and do nothing.

I know which option will be taken.... nothing so we might as well sit back and enjoy the show?

I agree with most of those comments. Specially the last statement.

I wonder -- dare I suggest it -- that the massive boom in Chinese development in the last 15 years, has been a major player, though no doubt there could be other causes. So as far as little UK is concerned -- indeed, what can we do effectively?

But if we do "sit back and enjoy the show" then besides losing Arctic ice, we must be prepared to write off much of our farmland, certainly in the northwest of the UK. Rain data here, shows a deteriorating situation especially since the late 90s.. Land is growing "free" nutritious grass, but it's impossible to harvest it or put cattle on it.

Farms will be abandoned (it's already happeneing of course), for sheep ranches, shoots, golf courses and other leisure activities etc. Farms sold off for development into country mansions. So then what? If farmers leave, who's left to do the graft and with understanding keep all in order. Can we afford land to go idle? Can we forever afford the food import bill.

OK this is not perhaps the correct thread to have this rant. But all these things are interconnected in my opinion..

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Rainy!

I'm kinda hoping that if we must watch the Arctic 'state shift' that the changes will be swift and move us away from the current Jet position that seems to blight our summers?

With strong enough heating across the basin we will see such low speeds from the polar jet that it will effectively disappear allowing the sub tropical jet to rapidly shift north altering the placing of L.P.s in positions not as blighting as we see currently?

I keep wondering? if we see an increase in amplitude of the jet (due to a reduction of speed) then won't we see a shortening of the wavelength? (i.e. the trough will migrate back into the Atlantic giving the west coast of ireland our share of the rain and allowing a bit of that Dutch/German sunshine to hang out here for weeks on end?) I imagine the rockies and Greenland are calling the shots as to where the peaks are so I'm not hoping for another 03' each summer but an 06' every other year would be nice?

Edited September 24, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

Good video gray wolf.

The interesting thing is that even in the video towards the end she says how it should open peoples eyes in that we need to act now etc etc! Lets be realistic here if the man made contributions are causing this devestating increase in global temperatures that will cause world wide catastrophe (very little in uk in comparison to other parts of world unless you live in a coastal flood plain) then there is nothing we can do to prevent this now if the tipping points are even close to being reached which quite a few including yourself suggest are. Even if the world went all out with co2 reductions which is never going to happen to the extent that would be required to halt it (if we have not passed a tipping point already) it would be too late. So that leaves us with few options... we deliberately alter the energy budget of planet in some way and risk an ice age or we sit back and do nothing.

I know which option will be taken.... nothing so we might as well sit back and enjoy the show?

Devastating increases in global temperatures , world wide catastrophe ?? Has there been a Day After tomorrow sequal I have missed ??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow

The only 'show' at present is

We might see an increase microscopic marine plants and more marine creatures up there with more warm ocean water.

http://articles.lati...-bloom-20120608

http://www.realistnews.net/Thread-nasa-discovers-unprecedented-blooms-of-ocean-plant-life-in-arctic-ocean

The loss of summer artic ice on its own although interesting isn't going to bring the world to an end. The key of course is 'on its own'.

Edited September 24, 2012 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

A 50k increase on IJIS yesterday, on the day 2007 set it's minimum. So we're now 380k away from 2007. Will be interesting to see how long it takes to catch!

[Gavin Hannah]

Hopefully, the lack of solar activity will mean there is less energy than thought being pumped into the Arctic and the temps plunge down rapidly.

[Interitus]

There is a good blog following the AWI research ship Polarstern, with their research and the conditions and their surprise at how broken the ice has been. They determined to press towards the pole to revisit some of their most northerly ice camps as those <88°N were now in open water, but had to make a quick diversion to Kirkenes in Norway to offload an injured passenger.

The blog can be found here http://www.awi.de/en...vii/ark_xxvii3/

Since their last update they returned north in the past week and eventually found pack ice, but from the synop reports it looks like conditions have caught them on the hop, with them at one point at 89°12N reporting ICE 18099 = "Ship beset. Ship in ice difficult to penetrate; conditions worsening." Temperatures have since fallen to -16C with maximums below -10C

The next blog update should be interesting!

[4wd]

Well I almost hope they get stuck, what is the point exactly?

[Interitus]

They state that they are there to "compare the biogeochemistry, biology and optical properties of thicker, multiyear ice with the first year ice, which we have so far been studying. Also, we wonder how far north we will detect the effect of ice-algae export to the Arctic basins". They are also studying the formation of the formation of the Arctic deep water from the Atlantic inflow.

[Coast]

Slowly on the increase this week:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop of 4k on the IJIS extent yesterday.

With the main body of ice nearing 100% concentration, the majority of future gains will come from new ice formation, so it will be interesting to see how quick those SSTs will drop to allow this, especially in the Beaufort, Baffin and Kara seas where the SSTAs are still quite strong.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A modest increase on the NSIDC extent of 34.5k, which makes the last 4 days average gain 35k/day, which is essentially typical for the same time with the 79-11 average.

The average daily increase for the rest of the month is about 55k/day though, so the ice growth needs to pick up quite a bit from now on.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It will be interesting to watch the 80N temperatures this Autumn, Spring and Winter. We managed to go from the end of November until the end of March without recording a single below average day last winter. I wonder if anything similar will happen this time?