Super Typhoon Sanba

[lfcdude]

Eye wall Replacement could be soon

Edited September 13, 2012 by lfcdude

[Coast]

12:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: The bad news: I have never, in all my years of following tropical cyclones, seen a storm this intense here in the Pacific. Super Typhoon Sanba is peaking in intensity at 155 knots, or 178.25 mph, today along with gusts near 220 mph (!!!) – a Category 5-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – and will remain close to that for next day or so.

The really bad news: We’re looking at a direct or almost-direct hit on the south part of Okinawa come early Sunday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Sanba roaring 8 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 6 a.m. Sunday, at which point it will have weakened slightly but should still be packing Category 4-equivalent 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at its center. The next Bart, perhaps.

Word of warning 1: If Sanba’s eye remains, it will likely pass over the south part of Okinawa in the half-light of early dawn on Sunday. If all of a sudden the sheets of rain and high winds cease and total calm takes over, DO NOT GO OUTSIDE! At any moment, the winds and rain could resume, in the opposite direction, just as fierce if not more so than before. There is not a more dangerous time to be outside than when a typhoon’s eye settles in.

The good news, if there is such a thing, is Sanba appears to be picking up forward speed and MAY pass through the Okinawa area relatively quickly. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3; expect that to change late Friday or early Saturday.

Word of warning 2: Assuming the worst and Okinawa gets pummeled by Sanba’s worst winds, we could be in for a very lengthy recovery period, several hours at least. At those wind speeds, thousands on and off base could be without power, some without water, whole trees, power lines, power poles and stoplights could be down. It is never a good idea to be outside during TCCOR 1-R (recovery) anyway; assessment teams are out in force at that point, checking for damage, flooding, etc.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, 7 p.m. Saturday.

-- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, 8 p.m. Saturday.

-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, midnight Saturday.

-- Maximum 138-mph winds and 167-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 a.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.

-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.

Said this already, but can’t emphasize enough: Time to get your commissary, PX, ATM and gasoline stand on. Enough water, non-perishable food, pet food for your furry friends, diapers and sanitizer for the little ones and cash to last three days, at least, and fill the tank with gasoline.

For the folks in Korea: Sanba will remain a fairly powerful Category 2-equivalent storm as it crashes ashore on the southern coast around mid-day Monday. Pretty good chance that schools will be closed and many services will be shut down, as they were twice earlier this summer, only this storm should be more fierce. As with the folks on Okinawa, get on your shopping game and supply yourself up. If your homes are equipped with storm shutters, make sure they’re working and you can close them with relative ease. A can of WD-40 goes a long way toward ensuring that.

Sanba is forecast to shear apart and weaken rapidly, thanks to vertical wind shear and interaction with land, as it rumbles 47 miles west of Chinhae Naval Base and 74 miles west of Pusan at 5 p.m. Monday, 33 miles west of Daegu at 7 p.m., 75 miles east of Kunsan Air Base at 6 p.m., 72 miles east of Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base around 10 p.m. and 80 miles east of Yongsan Garrison and Camp Red Cloud around midnight. Sanba should then exit Korea near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan early Tuesday, still maintaining severe tropical storm-strength winds.

I can’t emphasize enough: Sanba is NO JOKE. This could be the next Bart; ask island longtimers what THAT was like. Prepare, prepare, prepare and prepare, in no particular order.

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/super-typhoon-17w-sanba-13-1.189290

[Coast]

WTPN31 PGTW 140300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 014

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

140000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 129.7E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 129.7E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z --- 20.1N 129.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

150000Z --- 22.1N 128.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

151200Z --- 24.3N 128.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 14 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

160000Z --- 27.1N 127.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

170000Z --- 33.0N 127.4E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 20 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

180000Z --- 40.6N 129.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 23 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

190000Z --- 49.3N 134.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

---

REMARKS:

140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 129.6E.

SUPER TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED

NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//

[Eskimo]

172mph, that's just incredible.

[Coast]

BEIJING - China's flood control and drought relief headquarters on Friday urged relevant departments in the country's coastal provinces to brace for a super typhoon that has rapidly gained strength in the Western Pacific.

In a statement posted on its website, the headquarters said super typhoon Sanba, positioned 900 kilometers east of Manila, Philippines, packing maximum winds of 184 kilometers per hour as of 5 pm Thursday, was expected to move northwest at a speed of about 17 km per hour.

The typhoon will bring gales, big waves and strong rainfall to China's eastern coastal areas, according to the statement, adding that a tropical cloud cluster lingering over the South China Sea may develop into a tropical cyclone in the coming days.

The headquarters issued a warning notice to its local offices in more than 10 coastal provincial-level administrative regions, including Shanghai, Fujian and Liaoning.

The notice required local departments to closely monitor Sanba and the tropical cloud cluster and issue timely forecasts and warnings.

Meanwhile, the notice urged residents of the country's coastal regions to be well-prepared for possible typhoon effects and take precautions against wind, moisture and strong rainfall.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-09/14/content_15759664.htm

[knocker]

NASA Sees Sanba Become a Super Typhoon

Tropical Storm Sanba exploded in intensity between Sept. 12 and 13, becoming a major Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data that showed a large area of powerful thunderstorms around the center of circulation, dropping heavy rain over the western North Pacific Ocean.

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Super Typhoon Sanba on Sept. 13 at 0447 UTC (12:47 a.m. EDT). The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument captured an infrared image of Sanba and found an eye about 20 nautical miles (23 miles/37 km) wide, surrounded by a thick area of strong convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms that make up the storm) and strong thunderstorms. Forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning center noted that the AIRS imagery showed that there was "no banding outside of this ring, consistent with an annular typhoon."

On Sept. 13 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Sanba's maximum sustained winds were near 135 knots (155 mph/250 kmh). Sanba had higher gusts into the Category 5 typhoon category. The Saffir-Simpson scale was slightly revised earlier in 2012, so a Category 4 typhoon/hurricane has maximum sustained winds from 113 to 136 knots (130 to 156 mph /209 to 251 kmh). A Category 5 typhoon's maximum sustained winds begin at 137 knots (157 mph /252 kmh).

Sanba was located about 600 nautical miles (690 miles/1,111 km) south of Kadena Air Base, near 16.8 North latitude and 129.5 East longitude. It was moving to the north at 9 knots (10.3 mph/16.6 kmh) and generating wave heights of 40 feet.

Sanba is expected to continue on a north-northwesterly track through the western North Pacific and move through the East China Sea, passing close to Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan on Sept. 15.

Text Credit: Rob Gutro

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Super Typhoon Sanba on Sept. 13 at 12:47 a.m. EDT. AIRS infrared data found an eye (the yellow dot in the middle of the purple area) about 20 nautical miles wide, surrounded by a thick area of strong thunderstorms (purple) with very cold cloud temperatures. Credit: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Sanba.html

[Somerset Squall]

Sanba has been weakening as it moves towards Okinawa. Intensity has fallen to 110kts, still a dangerous high end cat 3. Shear is increasing, and will promote further weakening. As Sanba was so strong in the first place, this certainly doesn't put Okinawa or South Korea out of danger.

[lfcdude]

Storm surge will be 13 feet our so i think

Edited September 15, 2012 by lfcdude

[Somerset Squall]

After the eyewall replacement cycle, Sanba's eye is clearing out again. Closing in fast on Okinawa (click image to zoom):

Edited September 15, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Coast]

Closing in fast on Okinawa

Yep, must be a concern for all in it's path:

WTPN31 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 023

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

160600Z --- NEAR 28.8N 128.1E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 18 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 128.1E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

161800Z --- 32.8N 128.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 22 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

170600Z --- 37.2N 128.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 25 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

171800Z --- 42.2N 130.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

EXTRATROPICAL

---

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 128.1E.

TYPHOON 17W (SANBA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 41 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z. //

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Typhoon SANBA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 36 hours lead

China’s meteorological authority said on Sunday, the super typhoon Sanba will bring strong wind to regions along its course and rainstorms to north-eastern China over the next few days.

Sanba, the 16th typhoon of the year, was positioned at about 65 kilometres east of the Japanese island of Okinawa at 5 a.m., according to a statement posted on the website of China’s National Meteorological Center (NMC).

The typhoon will move northwest at a speed of around 25 km per hour and bring heavy rainfalls to China’s north-eastern provinces from Monday to Tuesday, the centre said.

Storms will hit the north and south-east of Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province over the next two days, while some regions will see downpours of 100 to 120 millimetres, the NMC forecast.

The NMC said in a separate forecast release that Sanba has entered the southeast of East China Sea by 9 a.m. and it was about 690 kilometres south of the Jeju Island of the Republic of Korea.

The speed at the centre of the super typhoon is 52 meters per second, and its strength will stay unchanged or slightly weaken as it moves northward toward the south of the Korean Peninsula, the centre said.

The centre forecast that the typhoon will bring strong wind to the western part of East China Sea, waters east of Taiwan, the estuary of the Yangtze River, the Hangzhou Bay, the central and southern parts of the Yellow Sea and coastal areas in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces over the next day.

The nation’s flood control authority on Friday urged residents in the coastal regions to be fully prepared for possible influences of the Sanba and take precautions against wind, moisture and strong rainfall.

http://www.thehindu....icle3903857.ece

[Coast]

http://youtu.be/95YZ241nbqY

[Somerset Squall]

There are no reports of significant damage or death in Okinawa. Sanba has made it's second landfall in South Korea and is now becoming extratropical as it zips north-northeastwards towards Russia.