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Super Typhoon Sanba

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After a welcome lull in activity, the West Pacific has awoken once again with the formation of the season's seventeenth tropical depression, located east of the Philippines. The depression is in a favourable environment for intensification, with very toasty waters in it's path along with low amounts of shear through the area. The steering control for 17W is a subtropical ridge to the northeast, which is forecast to steer 17W on a northwest to north-northwestwards heading over the coming days.

wp1712.gif

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11 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Here we go again. A new tropical depression spawned overnight near Palau. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 17W to turn north and make a beeline toward Okinawa, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it creeps within 97 miles of Okinawa early Sunday morning. As with all tropical cyclones, this one’s in the early stages, so things could change.

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/tropical-depression-17w-1-1.188838

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Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

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The depression has beeen upgraded to Tropical Storm Sanba, with sustained winds now of 40kts. Sanba has a decent amount of convection over the LLC, and is in a favourable environment for strengthening. As Coast's post describes, Okinawa is in the firing line currently, though this may change as ever.

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Sanba is well on the way to becoming a typhoon, with sustained winds now at 55kts. Curved banding is wrapping into a strong circulation, and an eye is trying to form. Sanba should continue to strengthen as it heads to the north-northwest, and it looks to become an intense typhoon over the coming days

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MANILA -- Expect rains over Visayas and Mindanao as Tropical Storm "Karen" (international name: Sanba) and a low pressure area (LPA) continue to hover, the state weather bureau said on Wednesday.

As of 10 a.m., Karen was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 620 kilometers east of Borongan, Eastern Samar, with maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph. Weather forecaster Aldczar Aurelio said the tropical storm has slightly accelerated as it continues to move over the east of Philippine sea.

He said if it will not change its track, Karen is not expected make landfall in any part of the country. Karen is forecast at 770 kilometers east of Infanta, Quezon by Thursday morning and at 620 km east of Tuguegarao City by Friday morning. Aurelio said "Karen" is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by weekend and will move towards Japan.

In a separate note, weather website accuweather.com said Karen will develop into a typhoon by Wednesday night. "Long-range forecasts take Sanba on a north-northwesterly track heading through this weekend, which would bring the center of the storm near Kadena Air Base in the Ryukyu Islands on Sunday. By early next week, Sanba could impact southwestern Japan or South Korea bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the region," meteorologist Erik Wanenchak said. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the estimated rainfall amount is from 10 to 20 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 550-km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboard of Visayas and Mindanao due to Karen. Most affected areas by the tropical storm -- Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga and Caraga regions-- will have occasional moderate to heavy rain that could trigger landslides and flashfloods, the agency warned. Pagasa said no public storm signal was raised.

Metro Manila will be partly cloudy to cloudy with light to moderate rains, while the rest of the country will have scattered light to moderate rains. On the other hand, the LPA spotted off 240 west of Zambales continues to move westward and has chance to become tropical cyclone since it is in the sea, Aurelio said. But once it intensifies into a cyclone, he said, it will be named "Lawin," the 12th tropical cyclone to enter the country this year.

http://www.sunstar.c...lippines-242374

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Typhoon SANBA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 120 hours lead

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Sanba has continued to strengthen quickly and is now a 70kt cat 1 typhoon. The storm has an impressive CDO feature with a cloud filled eye embedded within it. As shear remains low and waters warm, further strengthening, perhaps rapid, can be expected as Sanba moves towards Okinawa. Sanba looks likely to then continue northwards into South Korea, though this may still change as it is still almost a week away.

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This very well has the potential for to turn into a super typhoon

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Typhoon Sanba is forecast to strike South Korea at about 12:00 GMT on 17 September.

Typhoon Sanba is forecast to strike South Korea at about 12:00 GMT on 17 September.Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Centersuggest that the point of landfall will be near32.5 N,127.1 E.Sanba is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 212 km/h (132 mph).Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm ofSanba'sstrength (category 4)at landfall includes:

  • Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
  • Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.
  • Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
  • Complete destruction of mobile homes.
  • Extensive damage to doors and windows.
  • Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.
  • Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
  • Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).

There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

http://www.trust.org...n-17-september/

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Sanba looks poised to become the seasons second super typhoon and possibly the first cat 5 of the year worldwide. The latest intensity is 115kts, but the eye is now very well defined, embedded in a circular central dense overcast, so expect a rise in intensity in the next JTWC update

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It looks like it could have a wide swathe of impact as well:

Sanba.jpg

As has been said already, a well defined eye:

Super_Typhoon_Sanba_Sept13_2012_09z.JPG

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Rapid intensification alright. 155mph sustained now...and 190mph gusts!

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Sanba is on the cusp of cat 5, with sustained winds now at 135kts. Sanba is expected to become a cat 5 (if it's not already) within the next 12hrs. The super typhoon looks beautiful on satellite imagery. What a storm! I really feel awful for Okinawa and South Korea, they are in for an absolute hammering over the coming days sad.png

Interesting to note that JTWC say Sanba has become annular. This is evidenced by the loss of banding features but a solid circular wall of convection surrounding the perfectly defined eye.

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What's the current pressure of this storm? I can't seem to find it anywhere.

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I know Okinawa is built to with stand these and wont cause much damage to houses by wind... But what will be the storm surge on this? In oki?

But this will not be good for South Korea there infrastructure is not as good

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Rapid intensification alright. 155mph sustained now...and 190mph gusts!

Spectacular but absolutely horrendous — the poor people in its path.

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I know Okinawa is built to with stand these and wont cause much damage to houses by wind... But what will be the storm surge on this? In oki?

But this will not be good for South Korea there infrastructure is not as good

I'm not sure but 3pm advisory from JTWC puts wave height at 40 feet!

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Sanba has become the strongest storm since Super Typhoon Megi in 2010. Sanba is now a cat 5, and sustained winds have reached a whopping 150kts. Sanba could strengthen a little more to a 155-160kt intensity which is about as strong as a tropical cyclone can get. Maximum wave height is now 50 feet. Okinawa and the neighbouring Japanese Islands are in serious trouble first, followed by South Korea.

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NTWICAS Now Thats What I Call A Storm!

Amazing pics of a true beauty of nature, been a while since anything this impressive SS?

180kn+ gusts, 20 naut mile wide eye, 50ft waves, incredible stuff but the pics speaks for themselves.

I assume you`ll acquire a new avatar soon SS wink.png

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Yeah Mezza, most impressive storm since Megi. There have been some beautiful storms in the West Pacific this year along with Sanba, Bolaven and Guchol spring to mind. In fact, Guchol looked just as stunning as Sanba is, but only officially peaked at 130kts. Not much between them as this image of Guchol shows:

guchol_2012.jpg

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Hi resolution shot from NASA Earth Observatory here. Also option to download 7200x9400 which would take me around an hour on this connection this evening.

Ryan Maue tweets that initial GFS Run had central pressure at 927mb.

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Modis Aqua Hi Res Image : http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=Sanba.A2012257.0450.250m.jpg

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