Winter 2012 / 2013

[feb1991blizzard]

They look impressive. However, I'm not going to read too much into them. Good to see all the same though!

CFS Not looking quite as good although not absolutely tragic though, the only charts that really scare me are ones with the very deep shades of blue to the North, the way i see it it the mean trough being over us means some cold spells some warm spells and we dont want perfect charts at this stage anyway as the only way is down as we get near the reliable, lets just get some solid building blocks in place now and hope that chiono's first post in the 2012/2013 stratosphere temperature watch thread is an encouraging one like 2 years ago and not a 'nothing before xmas' type one like last year.

http://www.cpc.ncep....bz700e3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

Edited September 12, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[SnowObsessor90]

CFS Not looking quite as good although not absolutely tragic though, the only charts that really scare me are ones with the very deep shades of blue to the North, the way i see it it the mean trough being over us means some cold spells some warm spells and we dont want perfect charts at this stage anyway as the only way is down as we get near the reliable, lets just get some solid building blocks in place now and hope that chiono's first post in the 2012/2013 stratosphere temperature watch thread is an encouraging one like 2 years ago and not a 'nothing before xmas' type one like last year.

http://www.cpc.ncep....bz700e3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif

What I'd be even more interested to know is what the indications were in the lead up to the towards winter back in 2009 because if I remember rightly didn't December start of all mild and wet before becoming blocked later on that year?

[feb1991blizzard]

What I'd be even more interested to know is what the indications were in the lead up to the towards winter back in 2009 because if I remember rightly didn't December start of all mild and wet before becoming blocked later on that year?

The first half december 2009 was mild if i remember rightly, i remember John Kettley coming on Talksport late November though and saying there could be a significant cold spell with a white Xmas, i did not even know you could talk in discussions on the internet with other snow fans back then, i only got back into it after well over a decade, feb 2009 where i missed out on a pasting by about 8 miles was what got me back into it but i just thought that was a one off until the media started to latch onto a possible cold 09/10 winter, there are links you can look at though, one of them is historic CFS forecasts.

http://www.cpc.ncep....s_fcst_history/

It looks like the early October 2009 CFS was the first run that a blocked -NAO winter started to show up on model output.

http://www.cpc.ncep..../glbz700Mon.gif

The technical model thread on here started on the 13th of december 2009 (a few days before the initial easterly blast caused chaos on the roads on the Thursday night Friday morning, i remember people phoning the radio saying hour journeys had taken 6 hours).

http://forum.netweat...del-discussion/

Edited September 12, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Styx]

The first half december 2009 was mild if i remember rightly, i remember John Kettley coming on Talksport

Devastating that James Whale was sacked, and Tommy Boyd before that.

I loved listening to those guys.

Sorry to digress..continue on

[AWD]

To be taken with a large pinch of salt as with anything else this far out, but it is nice to see some positivity from the Meto regarding a cold winter.

This from Ian Fergusson:

UKMO seasonal model updated for Sept & suggests a 60-80% probability of colder than average winter;

http://t.co/gb7kKbSF

and this from Matt Hugo:

New chart for the winter of 12/13 is up and running covering the temp across the North Pole -

http://t.co/Ijbm6yqz

Weak El Nino & perhaps the QBO becoming E'ly in time for winter

Another sign for perhaps colder weather this winter -

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind.jpg … - The QBO may well be in an E'ly phase rather than W'ly.

Interesting from NOAA - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf … - Not a bad thing to have a weak El Nino through the up coming winter...

Edited September 13, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[syed2878]

yes i awaight chio's first strat post les hope the warming r in the rite places for us to benifit.

[Stormyking]

Its been a long long time since I posted on here, but bring on the winter! Im really looking forward to it all and to how it shapes up! Hope it is a cold and snowy one!

Last winter was disappointing compared to the previous 2! But who knows hopefully it will be better!

Fingers crossed!

[Aaron]

I'm really looking forward to the Autumn foliage first - even the large trees are showing yellow leaves, while some small trees I saw on my way to the city centre were totally yellow and red. Lots and lots of berries too!

Oh, and I saw a flock of geese flying over, so autumn is definitely here..

Edited September 13, 2012 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

To be taken with a large pinch of salt as with anything else this far out, but it is nice to see some positivity from the Meto regarding a cold winter.

This from Ian Fergusson:

UKMO seasonal model updated for Sept & suggests a 60-80% probability of colder than average winter;

http://t.co/gb7kKbSF

and this from Matt Hugo:

New chart for the winter of 12/13 is up and running covering the temp across the North Pole -

http://t.co/Ijbm6yqz

Weak El Nino & perhaps the QBO becoming E'ly in time for winter

Another sign for perhaps colder weather this winter -

http://www.geo.fu-be...bo/qbo_wind.jpg … - The QBO may well be in an E'ly phase rather than W'ly.

Interesting from NOAA - http://www.cpc.ncep....ry/ensodisc.pdf … - Not a bad thing to have a weak El Nino through the up coming winter...

QBO is already -ve.

Looking at the chart it does indicate that the QBO will still be negative in the lower atmosphere but will be westerly in the upper atmosphere so i would summise that we will be looking for upwelling events this year rather than downwelling.

The effects of this i cannot say (if memory serves the lower atmosphere is most important outside of winter but the upper atmosphere most important during winter.

I'm really looking forward to the Autumn foliage first - even the large trees are showing yellow leaves, while some small trees I saw on my way to the city centre were totally yellow and red. Lots and lots of berries too!

Oh, and I saw a flock of geese flying over, so autumn is definitely here..

Oh yes, the cooler minima has certainly caused them to change more quickly than recent years (bar the end of summer 2011 when they had some drought stress).

[Summer Sun]

Latest Met Office long range charts suggest a 60% chance of below average temps this winter and a 20% chance of above normal

Rainfall looks fairly average nation wide, only Northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland are shown to be below normal (40% chance)

Chances of near normal sea level pressure is 40% below normal is 20%

[Gavin Hannah]

And it all begins to slide into place............

[feb1991blizzard]

Devastating that James Whale was sacked, and Tommy Boyd before that.

I loved listening to those guys.

Sorry to digress..continue on

Yes i agree, TS reached a peak in the early naughties, a perfect blend, the late Mike Dickin at 10 until 1 weekday mornings was a good listen as well, its interesting that you like Boyd and Whale though, i dont know if you know this but they hated each other and i think Boyd left the station after a slanging match, each would have a dig back at one another on their shows, mind you i do like the fact that its non stop sport now all the day around.

Do you remember the Human Zoo on a sunday night with Boyd, i normally prefer more serious debate on TS but i have to admit that was funny.

Meanwhile the mean dips below freezing 850hpa temps for Scotland and stays 3c or below for the rest of the run.

Edited September 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[ICETAB]

AO & NAO forecasts start to tank negative...

[feb1991blizzard]

AO & NAO forecasts start to tank negative...

Definately meridianality on the agenda now, i have to say though that i would much rather see all them ensembles trending strongly negative in late Nov-, the other thing to remember is that each one of them is a GFS member so they change regularly, although they look a pretty solid bet right now.

[Thunder Snow]

Are the Cfs still pointing to a cold winter

[feb1991blizzard]

Are the Cfs still pointing to a cold winter

No. V1 pointing to average for all months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

V2 pointing to above average for December and February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

I would not worry too much yet though.

[picog]

No. V1 pointing to average for all months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

V2 pointing to above average for December and February.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

I would not worry too much yet though.

Whar worries me is that the MetO have given a 60% chance of a colder winter - they are often wrong.

Edited September 13, 2012 by picog

[feb1991blizzard]

Whar worries me is that the MetO have given a 60% chance of a colder winter - they are often wrong.

Thats only the raw data from their 42 member seasonal ensemble model i think, there is no forecaster input into that, they publish their data but they dont do actual forecasts more than a month ahead anymore, well they do but they keep them to themselves for research purposes.

Edited September 13, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[stewfox]

Are the Cfs still pointing to a cold winter

Yes already told mother -in- law can't visit over Christmas as weather forcast is very bad.

[Styx]

Yes i agree, TS reached a peak in the early naughties, a perfect blend, the late Mike Dickin at 10 until 1 weekday mornings was a good listen as well, its interesting that you like Boyd and Whale though, i dont know if you know this but they hated each other and i think Boyd left the station after a slanging match, each would have a dig back at one another on their shows, mind you i do like the fact that its non stop sport now all the day around.

Do you remember the Human Zoo on a sunday night with Boyd, i normally prefer more serious debate on TS but i have to admit that was funny.

Meanwhile the mean dips below freezing 850hpa temps for Scotland and stays 3c or below for the rest of the run.

I thought the conflict between the two was an act, and Tommy Boyd was sacked because Ash put thru a call from a listener who wished harm upon the Queen, a breach of protocol.

I thought the Zoo was great, everyone let loose, terrific idea on the night before most started work the next day, I was truly hooked

And Whale with this paranormal segments, top class radio!!

Edited September 14, 2012 by Styx

[Met4Cast]

AO & NAO forecasts start to tank negative...

Can't help but think "If only it were winter" really, definitely a cooler period of weather coming up from the middle of next week onwards, it's interesting to see such weather synoptics showing up too, even if not "great" they definitely have potential, if the last few years are anything to go by we seem to become stuck in weather patterns once they set in, if we can get High Pressure really dominating over the Arctic and into the Atlantic and keep the NAO and AO negative, we might just become stuck in this type of pattern and see an early start to winter.

Still, speculation at this stage, but encouraging signs from where I'm sitting.

[SnowObsessor90]

Just looked back at some of the older archived threads from the 09/10 winter,ah good times, good times.

What I would give to have a cold spell even just a small fraction as good as that again this year or in my lifetime for that matter.

[Met4Cast]

Interesting article from the Daily Mail explaining how the MO can now forecast freezing conditions weeks in advanced thanks to a new computer program which monitors SSW, it'll be interesting to see how the MO LRF are this winter ahead of any cold spells

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2202988/Met-Office-Better-way-forecast-Big-Freeze.html

[chionomaniac]

Interesting article from the Daily Mail explaining how the MO can now forecast freezing conditions weeks in advanced thanks to a new computer program which monitors SSW, it'll be interesting to see how the MO LRF are this winter ahead of any cold spells

http://www.dailymail...Big-Freeze.html

Good to see that they are catching up!!!

[lorenzo]

Good to see that they are catching up!!!

I just heard this story on the radio. Wonder if the new computer runs on a program called.. Netweather Sudden Stratospheric Warming Monitoring Winter 2012/13 Thread..?