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Summer Sun

Winter 2012 / 2013

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Well its that time of year again when long range models start to hint at what may be in store for winter

A tweet from Matt Hugo today

Seasonal update of the ECMWF for D/J/F totally diff to last month with a zonal +NAO pattern for the winter as a whole = mild & wet.

https://twitter.com/...124904893161472

The CFS seasonal outlooks also show it been average

euT2mSeaInd4.gif

Rainfall is also shown to be average for just about all

euPrecSeaInd4.gif

Now for a look at the individual months

December

Rainfall and Temperature

euPrecMonInd4.gif

euT2mMonInd4.gif

January

Rainfall and Temperature

euPrecMonInd5.gif

euT2mMonInd5.gif

February

Rainfall and Temperature

euPrecMonInd6.gif

euT2mMonInd6.gif

At this stage an average winter is shown on CFS with February been the wettest month of the lot

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How on earth do average charts mean a mild and wet Winter?

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How on earth do average charts mean a mild and wet Winter?

December looks mild!

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Note the key words in that tweet

"totally different to last month"

Does that instill confidence in such forecasts this far out?

Correct however if next months update goes for the same then those wanting a cold winter could have something to worry about

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One thing. Snow. And lots of it.

I don't even care if it's mild for a long time, as long as we get one feast, I will enjoy. Something just before Christmas to lighten the festivities, and in February to remind us the beast is alive.

I want to see TEITS dominating the model discussion thread.

I want to see GP getting 50 likes on each comment, regardless of what he says.

I want to see Steve Murr screaming down the forum telling us how the 18z is meaningless and how the 6z will give us what we want.

I want to see Yamkin warning us about how it's time to take all precautions when a cold front crosses south London, dropping approximately 1mm of sleet and 100mm of disappointment.

And I want to see Ian Brown telling us all about how the modern w*nter still exists whilst the temperatures plummet and the snow falls...

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Correct however if next months update goes for the same then those wanting a cold winter could have something to worry about

They shouldn't, it would be October and winter is still a few weeks away.

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It's only September, this starts earlier & earlier each year. If I've learned anything then it's not to let long range models/forecasts take to much of my trust!

The UK has just experienced the wettest summer for 100 years.... Without warning. Also we were all prepared for what happened during the closing stages of Nov 2010 and most of Dec 2010?? biggrin.png

One certainty for the coming winter is that the days will be very short and the nights very long, the rest is up for grabs good.gif

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A fun thread provided that is how anyone views it. If looked at in any serious vein then prepare for a similar type of ride to the model daily thread. The CFS outputs go up and down like a yo-yo. There MAY be some use in seeing if they are suggesting any pattern month after month but looking now and then over the past 2-3 months and they do anything but that.

I found absolutely nothing of merit in either the Extra version of basic CFS or the ensemble outputs during many many weeks of daily checking last autumn, nor anything I would give credit for to the charts SS shows in the first post on this thread.

entertainment yes

science not yet

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Correct however if next months update goes for the same then those wanting a cold winter could have something to worry about

It's okay, I have a backup plan in the form of Lapland just in case things do go bottom up again biggrin.png

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I wouldn't get too disheartened if forecasts start going for mild mush this winter. It's too far out to know for sure and the recent epic winters all but sneaked up on us. My gut is telling me it will be a good one. Just gota believe.

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last winter was such a let down after the previous heavy winters, as severe as the conditions were - its stilla blast! fingers crossed for a cold crisp and snowy winter! :-)

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Thinking about it I'm pretty sure Matt Hugo said that things were looking for cold last year and this was in October before things suddenly flipped again as we got nearer the time so for now I'll remain calm.

The time to worry is when all of the background signals are clearly pointing towards a milder outcome which hopefully (fingers crossed) will not be case this time around.

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Is this Matt Hugo character the new Joe B? Every time he makes daft predictions of snowmageddon (every year?) he's hailed as a hero...IMO, he hasn't got anything right, or even wrong, yet (winter being still three months' away) he's simply saying what folks like to hear?

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You are talking nonsense I'm afraid. Matt Hugo doesn't make predictions of 'snowmageddon' and he is a very knowledgeable person who makes informative posts whenever he chooses to post (which is usually on TheWeatherOutlook). The Model Output discussion thread could use someone with his expertise posting more often to offset some of the more silly and ridiculous posts.

Every so often he will create threads on TWO summing up notable weather events with charts and explanations.. such as potent thundery outbreaks or deep Atlantic lows. Very well thought out.

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well pguys we r only in sept so im not worried about w2012-2013 just yet we hav just over 2.5months to wwinter. As long as we get 1-2 majour snow here in wm that would do for me.

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I'm very interested to see if the rapid Arctic ice melt will influence our weather over the course of Winter 2012/12, and if so, how will it affect our weather?

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I'm very interested to see if the rapid Arctic ice melt will influence our weather over the course of Winter 2012/12, and if so, how will it affect our weather?

R.P has opend a thread for this subject, time will tell...

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Well the months are flying by so thought it was time to dust off the keyboard and get ready for some Autumn/Winter action !

I am certainly feeling that all familiar nip in the air today :)

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I'm back ready for the winter, hopefully snowy weather from November right through to February, not too much to ask for ;)

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