Scotland Regional Discussion - Autumn

[lorenzo]

No expert either but appears sea temperatures(negative values may be reading this wrong on the scale as it is so tiny) are below average around and to the north of the UK weaker Gulf Stream ? and higher (positive values)to the east of Canada, weaker Labrador Current? Direct northerlies or easterlies here would not be modified much and would be colder than average.We need some expert help here

We certainly had a cool late spring and early summer. Feels strange right now not picking plums and apples as there are none due to no insects to pollinate blossom and frosts during blossom time. Such a dearth of fruit I have not seen in almost 50 years here .

A great autumn harvest day here strong west wind blue skies and sun currently 17.7c

Blitzen, great post - and the chart you reference from Mr Joe B shows the anomalous warmer SST's grouping around Greenland. This page describes the link and also impact on a larger scale, altering Gyres.

For experts, turn to NASA, link to article here born out of the 2010 winter.

http://www.nasa.gov/...g-atlantic.html

Häkkinen’s team then looked at how a cyclical series of natural changes in sea surface temperatures, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean Variability (AMV), was behaving in the decades when there were more clusters of blocking events. The AMV switches phases every few decades.

The researchers observed the frequency of blocked weather events in the North Atlantic –from the equator to Greenland– over the entire twentieth century and compared it to the evolution of ocean surface temperatures for the same area. They then removed the effect that global warming has on water temperatures, and found that decades with more frequent, recurring blocking events in the North Atlantic corresponded to those decades when the North Atlantic Ocean was warmer than usual, as it is now.

Chiono started a thread with here linking to Teleconnection Research for winter some good reading here.

http://forum.netweat...nective-papers/

Edited September 16, 2012 by lorenzo

[Cheggers]

Just back from seeing Andy Murray in Dunblane, got thoroughly drenched till he appeared. 11C and blustery now back at hame.

While waiting...

The man himself...

[blitzen]

Blitzen, This page describes the link and also impact on a larger scale, altering Gyres.

For experts, turn to NASA, link to article here born out of the 2010 winter.

http://www.nasa.gov/...g-atlantic.html

Thanks for the links Lorenzo. Will have to read a few times for it to stick but I think I understand a bit better now.

With reference to the sea temp. graph: You can clearly see from that during the 1940/50s/60s how the sea was quite a bit warmer then and winters

were indeed colder.. I read an article recently about 3 submarines surfacing at the same time at the North Pole due to lack of sea ice in I think 1955? The same article also referred to massive drought stricken areas in the northern hemisphere during these years also. Ring any bells?

It will be interesting to see if there is indeed any correlation over the coming years, but as always with cllimate and weather, it may be back to the drawing board!

http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/imageDetails?s_it=imageDetails&q=north+pole+ice+free+in+the+1950s%3F&img=http%3A%2F%2Fc3headlines.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a010536b58035970c01156efec848970c-800wi&s_chn=hp&v_t=aoluk-homePage50&host=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.c3headlines.com%2F2009%2F04%2Fimages-of-arctic-pole-icefree-march-1959-its-happened-before-preglobal-warming-hype.html&width=183&height=110&thumbUrl=http%3A%2F%2Ft2.gstatic.com%2Fimages%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcTyTdeMaQHg2kzfUG6g8jnabPVirwisYS1BCE5tYNdjgRjms0JEdbofnIRw%3Ac3headlines.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a010536b58035970c01156efec848970c-800wi&b=image%3Fq%3Dn%3DimageResultsBack%26s_chn%3Dhp%26v_t%3Daoluk-homePage50%26oreq%3Dc779d066917a46dab73f9c68794b74c2&imgHeight=278&imgWidth=458&imgTitle=Image+of+Arctic+Pole+Ice-Free%2C&imgSize=17571&hostName=www.c3headlines.com

Edited September 16, 2012 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

Had this blow through earlier...

Which was followed by...

It just seems like we broke a mirror this year, as after the blue sky that followed we had one cloud that just drenched the estate. Blue in all directions except up!

[lorenzo]

ECM out to the end of the run looking much cooler, all greens and blues as the trough filters in to position.

First signs of -12 uppers over Greenland.

Couple of other things for today, another graphic of the SSt's around Greenland from October 2010. Caveat, this was an exceptional winter and an exceptional blocking event. worthy of note to compare with any predicted analogs for October this year.

NOAA Anomaly Map from 08/09.

Current Global conditions.

Time to look out a jacket for Autumn, as JH posted on model thread a very stationary pattern. So looking cool, filtering in the cold towards the end of September..

[Hairy Celt]

Had a couple of big noisy showers batter through this morning - more on the way - but warm bright sun in between.

[blitzen]

Hi all. Cool, showery, blustery about sums it up for here today. Not very pleasant! Hubby painting outside of house and is a bit narky because he can't get on.

No wish to spam the thread, but I thought that NL would be interested in this snippet

http://iceagenow.info/2012/09/thousands-sheep-buried-alive-snowdrifts-video/

Early, even for Iceland it appears.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Blitzen

[Northernlights]

Hi all. Cool, showery, blustery about sums it up for here today. Not very pleasant! Hubby painting outside of house and is a bit narky because he can't get on.

No wish to spam the thread, but I thought that NL would be interested in this snippet

http://iceagenow.info/2012/09/thousands-sheep-buried-alive-snowdrifts-video/

Early even for Iceland it appears.

Some sharp showers today and cool currently 8c so in for a cup of tea. Thanks for the link Blitzen. Large skeins of geese passsing over in the last few days so this must be part of the reason.

Still making plans this year to complete all outside work by mid November especially now after seeing your sea temperature anomally charts.

Interesting to read of submarines surfacing at the North pole in ice free water in March 1959. Should pop that info across to the Arctic Melt thread!!!!

Edited September 17, 2012 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Interesting to read of submarines surfacing in at the North pole in ice free water in March 1959. Should pop that info across to the Arctic Melt thread!!!!

Are you kidding?!!....Even I'm not THAT brave.

[lorenzo]

Been searching through teleconnection papers this evening and have baked my noodle.

Visited Wetterzentrale to see if anything had changed in the set up, thankfully they are no longer covering their pages with adverts for Russian Brides, perhaps they all froze last winter.. who knows?

Lurking within the 12z GFS run some overnight lows... -1 to -3 Friday/Saturday.

[Ross B]

Visited Wetterzentrale to see if anything had changed in the set up, thankfully they are no longer covering their pages with adverts for Russian Brides, perhaps they all froze last winter.. who knows?

Probably based on your previous search history... been googling for a bride lately?

p.s 4c oop north already, chilly.

[NorthernRab]

In Inverness for a few days and it's beginning to feel a lot more wintery at nights, far darker of course compared to a couple of months ago and only 4'C at the moment, perhaps a frost in the morning if lucky.

[lorenzo]

@Ross Ha ha ha !!

No chance - One is enough, never mind a second ! In order to clear my name - I can confirm this was first noticed on a work PC.... honest...

Found a good pic of one of the many rainbows from today over Edinburgh. ( just in case no one has ever seen one..)

[Hairy Celt]

In Inverness for a few days and it's beginning to feel a lot more wintery at nights, far darker of course compared to a couple of months ago and only 4'C at the moment, perhaps a frost in the morning if lucky.

Aye, and a balmy 7C out here next to the water... cloud swirling in again so I don't see it dropping much more - could be colder at the end of the week tho.

On a different subject... I read that badgers are in for a hard time in two parts of England soon. The gov't demonstrates yet again that it only listens to science when it wants to. God help us when it comes to the crunch at some point when the climate changes so much that we can't grow enough food. No, not being 'party political', there's never been a gov't that has used scientific advice intelligently.

Edited September 17, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[NorthernRab]

Aye, and a balmy 7C out here next to the water... cloud swirling in again so I don't see it dropping much more - could be colder at the end of the week tho.

Yeh chances scuppered I think, Friday / Sat looking for realistic, I'll be back down to Glasgow by then though so bad timing! Still, winter on its way

[Northernlights]

Fantastic clear starry sky tonight and Milky Way .Even saw a good falliing star/meteorite. Very cool at 5c.

[Cheggers]

Pished it down on and off all day, with a high of 11C. I think we might not need border control in 2014, as we may have floated further North, thus making Carlisle to Gretna a ferry service!!!

[Hairy Celt]

Pished it down on and off all day, with a high of 11C. I think we might not need border control in 2014, as we may have floated further North, thus making Carlisle to Gretna a ferry service!!!

Yeah then someone will build a bridge and charge us £10 each way!

Feels chilly out this morning. Looked at the radar and hit the 'precip type' button for the 1st time in a while.

[Northernlights]

4c at 7.30 am this morning after a fairly wet night but sunny now. Summit webcams have snow on them this morning at Glencoe and Cairngorm. A real feel of Autumn in the air now.

[Zerouali lives]

Met office indicating sleet at Loch Glascarnoch (280m) at 9am this morning

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

One maybe NL can help with?

I've planted grass seed recently on a lawn repair. Germinated now with 5-10 mm shoots coming up.

I'm hoping it will grow enough to establish itself reasonably before real hard frosts come it all starts to die back, ready to really go for it in the spring.

Am I hoping to much?

As for frosts - aye, a definite chill in the air this morning. Need to get my wee weather station (just T and RH) set up again now that all building work is complete and I have a woodshed to put it in.

[Northernlights]

One maybe NL can help with?

I've planted grass seed recently on a lawn repair. Germinated now with 5-10 mm shoots coming up.

I'm hoping it will grow enough to establish itself reasonably before real hard frosts come it all starts to die back, ready to really go for it in the spring.

Am I hoping to much?

As for frosts - aye, a definite chill in the air this morning. Need to get my wee weather station (just T and RH) set up again now that all building work is complete and I have a woodshed to put it in.

Hi, Just back from Inverness on a mineral tub run for cows. Would not sow grass seed on the farm after the end of August as we sow clover as well in the mix and it requires sustained warm soil to germinate but grass should be OK.

Some very sharp showers this afternoon and during the last one it fell to 5c and there were ice particles on the car windscreen,sleet in September or melted hail ?

A lot of hills to the west of Inverness had snow caps and Ben Wyvis also had its first easily seen cap of the autumn as the showers cleared.

Ground is becoming wet again and there are still substantial areas of crop to harvest in the area.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Northernlights

[blitzen]

Better day here today. A bit blustery but good sunny spells.

Have included a link to Matt Hugo's winter 12/13 thoughts and analysis (not a forecast) Explained in one piece in a simple fashion for those of us who are still learning. (or, in my case, THICK )

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/winter-20122013-thoughts-analysis/

Edited September 18, 2012 by Blitzen

[lorenzo]

I tweeted Matt earlier applauding him for this blog, a really good read. QBO, NAO, AO, ENSO all broken down neatly.

Also a couple of good papers linked within for further reading. Plenty of signals for a blocked outlook..

[Cheggers]

WOW, a day without rain. Bloody cold though. Just been out and it's baltic @ 7C