Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

[robt]

I saw on the satellite just what you are on about, it has been known for things to spring up within a few hours, so always good to keep checking, and as i said, it's an unusual situation and can develop a lot of interest, although there is not signs of a wind storm but lots of rainfall it still could happen over the next week at some point, i'm watching closely, and reading a great forum, so if it's going to happen they will let people know about it!

The Low seems to be sat well out into the Atlantic at the moment, although, it does seem to be on the move somewhat slowly..

[Liam J]

Well after a rather quiet spell of weather it now looks like that we are about to enter a very active spell of weather as the Atlanctic goes from bottom straight into top gear! The first part of the change occurs tomorrow as a fairly shallow area of low pressure and cold front moves in from the west, the low becoming centered over Northern UK in the coming days bringing some very wet weather for some of us.

As we move into next week things really do start to kick off, theres some really odd things going on in the atmosphere and this is clear to see when looking at the extensive blocking going on in the northern hemisphere shown by the model outputs, anyway the jet stream takes a head on course for our shores next week - a large trough becomes squeezed between heights building to the north and the Azores high to the south with a west - east running jet streak causing significant deepening to the area of low pressure as it moves towards the UK.

This is still some time away but models have been fairly consistent with this evolution and the potential for severe weather to impact the British Isles as the jet disrupts in response to the N hemisphere blocking - Expect some noteable weather events over the coming weeks, a significant windstorm event is highly likely imo. Very interesting model watching indeed with some extreme scenarios likely to be shown across the outputs in the near future

Edited October 10, 2012 by Liam J

[gottolovethisweather]

I feel this is worthy of inclusion here, so please do have a read.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74475-southwest-and-central-southern-england-regional-discussion/page__st__160#entry2380465

[Liam J]

I think this northern blocking signal is sending the models into slight turmoil, as I mentioned I expect some wild outputs over the coming days and also just to add that we will continue to see some alterations even at a relatively short to medium range.

[ZONE 51]

Looks as though we could get some interesting weather today(Thursday)an active system steams across bringing with it a lot of rainfall, and the risk of thunder and lightning, perhaps even thunderstorms.

The map shows everywhere is going to get very wet, with local flooding for many areas and the most prolonged and heavy rainfall flooding rivers, this weather system bringing yet more disruption.

Edited October 11, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[gottolovethisweather]

I must say I tend to agree with this post. Albeit, a general simplistic view of things, but accurate nonetheless.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74600-model-output-discussion-october-2012/page__st__280#entry2381064

Keep your eyes peeled to the model outputs over the coming days and possibly weeks.

[ZONE 51]

Monday Night

Outbreaks of rain then sweep in across all but northern parts of Scotland through the evening, heavy across Northern Ireland and north west England. During the night the rain clears from England, Wales and Northern Ireland with heavy rain now across Scotland. Not as cold tonight with a risk of strong gales and gusts over 60mph possible in the south. Expect minimum temperatures of 4 to 9C.

http://www.weatheron...MENU=UKForecast

This link is likely to get updated and the text change so i'm posting a screen snap to-see below

This is potentially a problem is winds get that high, i thought it was mid-week when the storms fire at as!

The isobars do look quite sqeezed as the system sweeps through monday evening/overnight, something to keep watch on.

Edited October 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Strong wind watch - South

Expect it to become very windy, Risk of Gales developing, tonight/tuesday.

ESS

[Liam J]

Some very strong wind over N Wales and southern parts of NW England - Nearly touching severe gale force towards the coast.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Coast]

Some strong gusts going to be coming into the West and South West during tomorrow:

Some tornado possibilities and plenty of shear:

and of course, plenty of rain for North Wales and places North of there to start off:

[Liam J]

Peak gusts recorded so far today, the winds are slowly easing the as the depression moves away so I doubt we'll see any higher for the rest of Tuesday.

[ZONE 51]

Severe Gales and Heavy Rain

There is a deepening depression in the Atlantic and it's heading our way overnight tonight and through Wednesday and into Thursday, this storm system is likely to cause disruption, most likely in western areas, it brings with it heavy rainfall tonight, arriving now in the SW England and also Southern Ireland, this heading to the east and northeast by morning. Flooding is expected from this rain in some areas, this most likely where the ground is very wet already, but very heavy rain or shower type thundery downpours could cause local flooding.

It is likely to become very gusty across western and southern areas overnight 35-45mph inland and 40-55mph gusts in exposed zones, gale force winds developing, these most likely along the west and south coasts.

Through wednesday there is the potential for severe gales to develop in the west, these most likely affecting Southwest England and Wales where damaging winds are expected, 50-70mph gusts here.

Image below is the storm developing in the Atlantic

ESS

Edited October 17, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Cloud 10]

Looking quite impressive this second low moving in as its kid brother heads across

the North Sea.

[ZONE 51]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/

Met Office warnings (heavy rain and gales)

[Zenarcher]

The heavy band of rain is moving across South Western parts of the UK right now and should continue to do so into the morning before it eases off. Looks like Southern Ireland, South East and Northern England will see it very heavy at times.

Looking at what the Met Office are saying for top gusts during Wednesday,

Scotland 48mph.

England 45mph.

Wales 58mph.

N Ireland 25mph.

Ireland 65mph.

[Dorsetbred]

Top gust overnight down here was 47.2mph, which aligns nicely to that forecasted

[Liam J]

Some exceptionally heavy rainfall over parts souther/central England overnight as the front pushed in from the south accompanied by strong winds.

The front is now laying across N Ireland, N England stretching down towards the Humber and the wash, not quite as intense as it was through the small hours. Winds also picking up over western locations - Wales, SW England, Ireland and through the Irish Sea, Expect gusts around 40-50mph generally with possible gusts to 55mph over exposed coastal parts. Buoy 62023 off the south coast of Ireland is reporting force 9 SL'y winds with gusts to 60mph.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Latest radar with air pressure overlay.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

As forecast it's been a very active weather day so far - Gales, flooding and thunderstorms in the mix. the deep depression driving the weather is currently centered over the far SW of Ireland around 976mb with mean wind speeds touching storm force 10 over the water (buoy 62023) southerly 54mph gust 68mph. Wales also taking a pouding from the wind with southerly gales battering western districts.

I can only post limited charts at work (rubbish laptop)

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited October 17, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Buoy 62023 to the South of Ireland currently recording 68mph gusts.

Looking ahead it looks like the wind is going to remain strong for the rest of today and tomorrow as well.

[Liam J]

Buoy 62023 to the South of Ireland currently recording 68mph gusts.

Looking ahead it looks like the wind is going to remain strong for the rest of today and tomorrow as well.

A tad breezy! I'm waiting for the 3pm hourly update for the buoy...... Wind picked up markedly further north now over the IOM in the last 30 mins and a bit more noticeable here.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

A tad breezy! I'm waiting for the 3pm hourly update for the buoy...... Wind picked up markedly further north now over the IOM in the last 30 mins and a bit more noticeable here.

3pm update shows a 70mph gust.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few pics from around Cork City this evening.

[Zenarcher]

Looks like for the time being perhaps for the rest of October the Atlantic will not really have a big influence on our weather. With high pressure around Greenland and all the models show us to enter a blocked weather pattern it looks unlikely that we will see anything stormy.

That being said though the ECM showed tonight we could get some low pressure systems coming off the North Sea affecting Eastern parts in the future,

That's a whole week away though so likely to change.

[Liam J]

Models homing in on a particularly disturbed period of weather during the second half of this coming week, the wind strength could well become the talking point as a significant trough sets up home close to our shores. A few different options being shown in the outputs so specific details will change on where the deepest low pressure centres are likely to develop - A fast moving situation with the possibility of severe weather occurring at relatively short notice.

Edited October 28, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Yes some windy weather is in store for the start of November,

On Halloween it will be windy day across England with gusts around 30mph and it could possibly reach 40mph in some places,

Friday morning same sort of wind speeds for the West of Scotland gusts 30/40mph,

You may have noticed another little system on the Friday morning map it comes up the channel and deepens giving the South and South East of England very windy weather gusts around 60mph,

Confidence for Wednesday is good at the moment for a windy spell but for the Friday event is still a long way off yet.

Edited October 28, 2012 by weathermaster