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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

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A new thread to discuss the potential for stormy weather conditions affecting the UK as we venture deeper down the path into Autumn.

Looking particularly wet & windy around mid week especially over Northern and Western Britain with a risk of severe gales. To early to be pinning exact details down at this stage but it certainly looks like the first proper blow of the Autumn is just around the corner. biggrin.png

Welcome back wild & woolly season for 2012 good.gif

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Yes, looking very Autumnal for the north next week. Windy too down south, bringing showers quickly through here!

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Hi I am very new to this forum but my question is.. I see there is a weather warning for north west USA just now, is that what is left of the hurricane last week and will this be the start of the tail ends that tend to hit the UK around 10 days later?

Thanks

Audrey

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Thanks Weather09 - I am still on a very steep learning curve regarding weather but do know we enjoy some great storms when we get the tail end of these hurricanes/tropical storms!

It is great being able to follow the forums here for more information and to try and make sense of the more technical stuff!

Audrey

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Hi Weather09

Leslie is now a trouble...

These are warnings that Britain could feel temporarily to get the affected of Hurricane Leslie which could bring more stronger storms for the UK at the beginning of the mid-next week.

So we will get hurricanes bring more troubles with the coming few days that can cause leading to flash flooding with damaging winds, even possible hurricane force winds or tropical storm force 70mph winds over the UK is a warm water around 18C on the sea surface temperature.

Britain should be posed the hurricane warnings or tropical storm watch, where is in affects.

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Patiently waiting, for the season to change and some activity to happen. Having a boring HP and still nights is ....boring.

Hoping things liven up soon

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Patiently waiting, for the season to change and some activity to happen. Having a boring HP and still nights is ....boring.

Hoping things liven up soon

Could get a little interesting a week and a bit from today as a ex TD brings warm, humid air across the country, and also lower pressure allowing done instability, but that's all a very long way off yet!! Don't think anywhere away from the far north will see anything this coming week either!

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The storm is going to track way north of the UK!!! most likly Iceland to be honest . Its not forecast to come any where near us.

Hi Weather09

Leslie is now a trouble...

These are warnings that Britain could feel temporarily to get the affected of Hurricane Leslie which could bring more stronger storms for the UK at the beginning of the mid-next week.

So we will get hurricanes bring more troubles with the coming few days that can cause leading to flash flooding with damaging winds, even possible hurricane force winds or tropical storm force 70mph winds over the UK is a warm water around 18C on the sea surface temperature.

Britain should be posed the hurricane warnings or tropical storm watch, where is in affects.

????????????????

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As things currently stand the setup isn't quite as active as it was looking a few days ago. Still some windy weather for the north and west with gales likely over NW Scotland.

The complications arise when we have these TS and ex hurricanes added into the picture, Interesting to see how this interaction is modelled over the next couple of days, a volatile situation with lots of energy for these systems and secondary features to draw off.... Lets hope the spark ignites diablo.gif

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Hi Weather09

Leslie is now a trouble...

These are warnings that Britain could feel temporarily to get the affected of Hurricane Leslie which could bring more stronger storms for the UK at the beginning of the mid-next week.

So we will get hurricanes bring more troubles with the coming few days that can cause leading to flash flooding with damaging winds, even possible hurricane force winds or tropical storm force 70mph winds over the UK is a warm water around 18C on the sea surface temperature.

Britain should be posed the hurricane warnings or tropical storm watch, where is in affects.

Evening Storm Track

For the benefit of the discussion and other members please can you produce any data and evidence to back this up? Current model guidance is depicting nothing along these lines affecting the UK. Potential for active weather/gales yes, hurricanes, no :D

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It seems likely that EX Hurricane Leslie will cross over the far North Atlantic and may just brush past the South of Iceland. However the models are currently showing that Scotland may experience some windy weather.

ECM

Pressure chart for Thursday afternoon,

Wind chart for Thursday afternoon and early evening,

The ECM shows a tighter low pressure system pass by us compared to what the other models are currently saying. It's showing wind speeds to be around 40 to 50mph for Western Scotland with gusts around 60 to 70mph.

GFS

The GFS goes for something different with the low pressure - Also to add to that the UKMO agrees with it leaving the ECM on it's own at the moment.

The wind chart shows wind speeds of 28mph to 40mph for Western and Northern Scotland a little less but still windy. Gusts around 50 to 60mph.

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Over night the ECM has moved over to agree with the UKMO and GFS.

So it looks like the wind speeds will be for Thursday evening and night then into Friday morning.

England, Wales and Ireland = 22mph gusts 35mph.

Western Scotland = 35mph gusts 50mph.

Northern Scotland = 40mph gusts 65mph.

Rest of Scotland = 22mph gusts 35mph.

the daily express have done a bit of scare mongering!!! www.express.co.uk good.gif

Current Met Office forecast is giving gusts just over 60mph. I believe at the moment a 70mph gust could be likely in the Northern Isles.

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I think Friday morning should see the winds top out and I guess they may be limited to the very North of Scotland, nothing you guys aren't used to you hardy breed!

96_21.gif

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Ex hurricane Leslie has left damage in her wake over Newfoundland, forecast predictions take her close to Northern Scotland so becoming very windy across the north during Thursday, the Northern Isles may experience severe gale to storm force winds gusting in excess of 70mph. Just a breezy day for most of the UK likely with winds becoming steadily stronger the further north you happen to be.

http://www.cbc.ca/ne...ogleeditorspick

post-9615-0-02768400-1347389966_thumb.gi Very rough up north by Thursday evening.

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The Express do take it a little bit further though, it must be said. Their 'reporting' is entirely laughable!

Anyway, it does look like we're in for some action in the UK as Leslie makes her way across (dragging Michael with her) - mostly Highlands and Eilean Siar but I'm sure it'll get a bit wet and windy as a result further south - the question is to what extent? Katia didn't do a lot around Chester last year by way of comparison, but we are well-shielded which means it is likely that we'll see it get a bit breezy with some drizzle closedeyes.gif .

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Has anyone seen the weather forecast by Wunderground.com? Lol..

3ebcb805bde34c8c9dec314.png

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Latest on Ex Hurricane Leslie,

During Thursday evening most of the UK will start to get breezy,

It isn't until Thursday night things will start getting windy mainly for Western and Northern Scotland.

Early Friday morning the strongest winds will move inland across all of Scotland and looks likely to affect Northern England and Northern Ireland.

I still think the top gusts will be around 70mph these are likely for Western and Northern Scotland in exposed or high ground areas. A heavy band of rain looks likely to move across Scotland with these strong winds during Thursday night.

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Wonder why the meto don't have any warnings out. unsure.png

Because they dont care about Scotland, if it were England it would be all over the news as well. laugh.png

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Update on Ex Hurricane Leslie,

9am Thursday - First signs of unsettled weather as heavy rain moves across Northern Scotland. Gusts in the Western and Northern Scotland will be around 30 to 40mph.

3pm Thursday - Another heavy band of rain moves across North Western Scotland. Gusts across Scotland now reaching 40 to 50mph mainly in the West and North.

12am Friday - As the Ex Hurricane starts to move in we will start to see an increase of wind speeds. Gusts across all over Scotland now ranging from 40mph to 55mph. Northern England and Northern Ireland start seeing higher gusts as well around 35 to 45mph.

6am Friday - It continues to get windier for Scotland with gusts reaching over 60mph in exposed parts. Northern England and Northern Ireland still see gusts of around 35 to 45mph.

9am to 3pm Friday - Gusts still ranging from 40 to 58mph in Scotland even in built up area's gusts of 50mph are likely. Northern Ireland and Northern England see an increase of wind gusts as well around 40 to 50mph. After 3pm on Friday the wind will gradually ease back down.

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Currently we have some places in Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland gusting to 40mph. The wind will continue to increase as the day progresses.

Latest rain radar showing heavy rain across Scotland at the moment,

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A steady increase in wind strength here through the afternoon, a few gusts into the 30's. Gusts around 50mph over parts of Scotland and N Ireland now and the winds will continue to gain force as we move into the evening, becoming very windy overnight through northern areas with W-WSW'ly gales developing - 60-70mph gusts likely across the far north & western isles, 50mph or so over the far north of England.

Remaining windy throughout much of Friday but gradually easing as the day wears on. First half decent blow of the autumn..... :)

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