Hurricane Leslie

[Coast]

Seems like Canada is the place to be (or not?):

Hurricane Leslie sets her sights on Atlantic Canada

While the hurricane season is well underway in the South Atlantic, things have been quiet on the East Coast.

However, that’s about to change. CTV Atlantic chief meteorologist Cindy Day says Hurricane Leslie, the sixth named hurricane of the season, has set her sights on Atlantic Canada.

“Right now Hurricane Leslie is a Category 1 storm, sitting 650 kilometres southeast of Bermuda,†says Day. “The forward motion is incredibly slow – northward at four kilometers per hour.†Day says computer models indicate Leslie is expected to “speed up considerably†as it travels north of Bermuda Sunday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. Meanwhile, the Maritimes should see a cold front Sunday, although Leslie is not expected to hit the East Coast until Monday, if at all.

“Some computer models ‘dig’ or slow down the trough, which allows Leslie to stay on a northerly track for a longer period, which leads to a greater threat for Nova Scotia late Monday,†says Day. “Most models speed the trough through quite quickly, which could cause Leslie to re-curve northeastward, leading to a more likely direct hit over southeastern Newfoundland.†Based on Thursday’s computer models, Day anticipates Leslie will travel south of Cape Breton, then across the Avalon Peninsula sometime Monday night as either a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane, although the track could change.

“I think the storm will move faster than the modeling currently shows,†she says. “Once we get to Saturday the computer models should have a really good handle on the storm track.â€

http://atlantic.ctvn...4#ixzz25rYjuXmN

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Leslie expected to re-intensify into hurricane but likely to skirt Bermuda

HAMILTON, Bermuda - People in Bermuda braced Friday for a weekend of rough weather from Tropical Storm Leslie as forecasters said the system would likely regain strength and become a hurricane again while passing to the east of this Atlantic Ocean island.

The Bermuda Weather Service said the storm was on track to pass about 200 miles (321 kilometres) east-southeast of the island late Sunday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane.

"It appears that Bermuda will be spared a direct impact," said Wayne Perinchief, the national security minister for the British territory. "However, I urge the public to remain cautious as there is the potential for the storm to re-intensify and change track, and we could experience heavy rain and winds in shower bands."

Some businesses were closing early and people crowded into shops to stock up on emergency supplies. At least one cruise ship cancelled a stop in Bermuda and the airport was expected to close.

There was no widespread panic because the island, a wealthy offshore financial haven and tourist destination, has strong building codes and is accustomed to storms.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Leslie resumed forward movement Friday after staying stationary overnight. Late Friday, the storm had top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), below the hurricane threshold of 74 mph (120 kph).

The storm was about 360 miles (575 kilometres) south-southeast of Bermuda and was moving north at 3 mph (6 kph). The U.S. centre said it would likely strengthen Saturday and Sunday, adding that Leslie also was expected to begin gradually increasing its forward speed.

Out in the middle of the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph). On Thursday, it was briefly the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving northwest at 6 mph (9 kph) over the open ocean and was not a threat to land. It was about 940 miles (1,515 kilometres) west-southwest of the Azores.

http://www.thestarphoenix.com/news/Hurricane+Michael+becomes+major+Category+storm+first+Atlantic/7198696/story.html#ixzz25radW1Dm

[knocker]

NASA's Global Hawk Mission Begins with Flight to Hurricane Leslie 09.07.12

NASA has begun its latest hurricane science field campaign by flying an unmanned Global Hawk aircraft over Hurricane Leslie in the Atlantic Ocean during a day-long flight from California to Virginia. With the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission, NASA for the first time will be flying Global Hawks from the U.S. East Coast.

The Global Hawk took off from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., Thursday and landed at the agency's Wallops Flight Facility on Wallops Island, Va., today at 11:37 a.m. EDT after spending 10 hours collecting data on Hurricane Leslie. The month-long HS3 mission will help researchers and forecasters uncover information about how hurricanes and tropical storms form and intensify.

NASA will fly two Global Hawks from Wallops during the HS3 mission. The planes, which can stay in the air for as long as 28 hours and fly over hurricanes at altitudes greater than 60,000 feet, will be operated by pilots in ground control stations at Wallops and Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif.

This image shows the flight path (red line) of a Global Hawk that departed from NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base in Calif. and flew around Hurricane Leslie on Sept. 7, 2012 before landing at NASA's Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Va. Credit: NASA

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/missions/hs3/news/hs3-begins.html

[Somerset Squall]

Leslie continues to have a hard time. The environment is just never quite favourable enough for the storm to really take off. Despite the reduction in the shear and the slowly warming sea temps, Leslie is now struggling with a dry air intrusion which has fully wrapped around the LLC, reducing convection. Until Leslie mixes out the dry air through outflow, the storm will not strengthen. Leslie could still become a hurricane before it races towards Atlantic Canada.

[Storm Track]

Leslie will not be remains a strenghtens into a Category 3 major hurricane with the next few days but it could be large swell to get the affected with a very dangerous rip currents heads toward Canada and Europe as well. Leslie could may be remains a strengthens into a Category 1 and 2 hurricane with the next day or early Monday.

[Maitland]

My apologies to what may sound like a silly question but can somebody explain the letters LLC to me?

M...

[Somerset Squall]

My apologies to what may sound like a silly question but can somebody explain the letters LLC to me?

M...

It means Low Level Centre

[Maitland]

It means Low Level Centre

Appreciate that. Thank you.

M...

[Coast]

Looks like they may both track towards Canada:

[Coast]

Is Leslie going to beef up again?

Leslie May Regain Hurricane Strength en Route to Newfoundland

Tropical Storm Leslie, the 12th named system of the Atlantic season, may regain hurricane strength as it moves away from Bermuda and heads for Newfoundland, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Leslie was about 190 miles (310 kilometers) east-northeast of Bermuda with winds of 60 miles per hour and moving north at 14 mph, the Miami-based center said in an advisory at 8 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time yesterday. The eye of the storm is expected to be near Newfoundland by Tuesday, when it could strengthen to hurricane status, the center said. Leslie is forecasted to begin a transformation to an extratropical or frontal cyclone as it approaches Newfoundland, it said. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Bermuda.

Farther east, Hurricane Michael was about 990 miles west- southwest of the Azores, spinning at 90 mph as it moved west at 5 mph, the NHC said in a separate advisory at 5 p.m. Atlantic Standard time yesterday. The system is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm.

http://www.bloomberg...wfoundland.html

[Somerset Squall]

Leslie has regained a little strength, and is now a 60kt storm. However, the chances of Leslie becoming a hurricane again now are slim. In fact, Leslie is beginning extratropical transition, as evidenced by the increasingly shallow nature of the convection. Leslie should reach land in just under 24hrs then fully transition into a strong extratropical storm as it moves out into the North Atlantic.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Leslie is expected to land in Newfoundland today, potentially bringing flooding rains and a storm surge up Placentia Bay if it arrives at high tide, according to Canadian and U.S. forecasters.

From 2 to 6 inches (5 to 15 centimeters) of rain are expected to fall across Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia when the storm passes the island, the U.S. National Hurricane center said at 2 a.m. East Coast time. If it picks up speed and arrives at 6 a.m. local time, a “hazardous†surge may sweep up the bay, according to a statement by the Canadian Hurricane Center yesterday. The storm is currently expected to strike about 9 a.m., the agency in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia said.

Leslie, the 12th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic season, was 260 miles (420 kilometers) southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, with top winds of 70 miles per hour, the NHC said. The system was moving north-northeast at 40 mph, and outer rainbands around the storm were brushing the island’s south, as well as the extreme eastern part of Nova Scotia.

The storm’s large size and lack of an inner core limit its chances of growing stronger. “It’s moving really fast and it may be moving 35 to 40 mph as it passes through eastern Newfoundland,†said Dan Kottlowski, an expert senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. “Their worst weather will be right around daybreak. It will rain very hard, very quick.â€

Kottlowski said Leslie’s fast forward motion will limit the most severe weather to about two hours and the total impact from the storm to about six to eight hours. “By noontime, it should all be wrapped up,†he said. Hurricane Igor raked the area in September 2010, washing out roads, isolating cities and towns and killing at least one person there.

Korea National Oil Corp.’s 115,000-barrel-a-day North Atlantic Refinery is located at the head of the bay in Come By Chance, Newfoundland. Also in the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was about 1,175 miles west of the Azores packing 75 mph winds, down from 80 mph, and moving north-northwest at 13 mph, the U.S. hurricane center said in a separate advisory. The system is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm today and is no threat to land. Kottlowski said the remnants of Michael may bring rain to the North Sea next week.

In addition, there is a budding storm about 855 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands that has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical system in the next two days. There is a good chance the system will be classified as a tropical depression later today, Kottlowski said. If it develops into a tropical system, it will make a large U-turn away from the U.S., he said.

http://www.businessw...in-newfoundland

Tropical Storm LESLIE: Storm-centered zoom at 69 hours lead

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Leslie slams into Newfoundland in Canada; Flooding, power outages expected

ST. JOHN’S, Newfoundland — Canadian officials warned of possible flooding and power outages as Tropical Storm Leslie barreled into Newfoundland, where it made landfall Tuesday morning.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre predicted at least 12 hours of intense rain over the northeastern province’s hilly terrain, which could generate rapid runoffs, said the agency’s program supervisor Chris Fogarty. The center was warning of possible damage from toppled trees, flooded streets and downed power lines. Several towns along eastern Newfoundland had already lost power by Tuesday morning and some flights were cancelled.

The storm was centered about 35 miles (55 kilometers) south of Stones Cove, Newfoundland and was moving north-northeast at about 40 mph (65 kph) at about 8 a.m. EST (9 a.m. AST, 1200 GMT), the National Weather Center in Miami said. It had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph). Forecaster Bob Robichaud said Leslie was gaining strength as it moved over warm waters, but its massive size may prevent it from reaching hurricane status. Storm watches were in effect for most of Newfoundland.

“If it was a smaller storm, there would most definitely be strengthening and we’d almost certainly have a hurricane at landfall,†he said. “But given the size of the storm, it takes a lot more to spin it up.†The Halifax-based Canadian Hurricane Centre said Leslie was not expected to be quite as ferocious as Hurricane Igor, which caused about CA$125 million (US$128.5 million) in damages and left some parts of Newfoundland without power for several days in 2010. Red Cross spokesman Dan Bedell said supplies and additional people have been taken to the Burin Peninsula, on the south coast of the island, where Igor pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane almost two years ago. Igor dumped eight inches (20 centimeters) of rain. The hurricane was also blamed for one death.

Nasty weather had already battered Atlantic Canada before Leslie’s arrival. The center said a trough of low pressure had already dumped heavy rain on parts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. Evacuation orders were issued Monday for Truro, Nova Scotia, where sheets of heavy rain caused two rivers to spill their banks as several dikes gave way, leading to flooding in Colchester County. The center said Leslie would combine with a low pressure system to generate additional heavy rainfall — up to six inches (15 centimeters) in some areas, adding that 26-foot (8-meter) waves were expected along Newfoundland’s southeast coast, particularly Placentia Bay.

On the Port au Port Peninsula, which hangs off Newfoundland’s west coast, about 1.6 inches (4 centimeters) of fast-falling rain Monday swelled streams that flow down hills along its southern coast. Water swamped parts of the main highway as provincial transportation officials advised that the peninsula was inaccessible with no alternate route.

Fire and Emergency Services worked Monday to shore up resources to ensure crews are ready to deal with the storm. Crews were trying to make sure that culverts and ditches were cleared to facilitate rapid runoffs, said Newfoundland Fire and Emergency Services spokeswoman Cheryl Gullage. “We’ve warned people to stay away from fast moving bodies of water,†Gullage said. “We’ve taken preparedness measures within our control to mitigate large damages but we have no idea how this will impact until it actually hits.†She added that authorities are prepared to move people to shelters if necessary.

Patricia Devine, of Clarenville in southeastern Newfoundland, nervously hunkered down just two years after Igor caused more than CA$25,000 (US$25,600) in flood damage to her home. “All over this town trees were down, an awful lot of people got flooded basements. Oh, it was awful,†she said. “In fact, I’m very nervous. I’m saying a lot of prayers.†She was among many residents who spent Monday buying food, water and gasoline, checking sump pumps, preparing generators and making sure they had flashlights, batteries and emergency contact numbers at hand.

Marine Atlantic said it was canceling ferries between Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Also in the Atlantic, Michael weakened to a tropical storm early Tuesday with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph). Additional weakening was expected and the storm was expected to fizzle out in about a day. The storm was not a threat to land.

http://www.washingto...f8eb_story.html

[Chris D]

It appears Leslie has a much lower central pressure than previously thought, according the the latest discussion by the NHC, of 968mb. What implications will this have in modelling this system as it approaches the UK? Wait and see.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Leslie blasts Newfoundland

Fortune, Newfoundland -- Remnants of Tropical Storm Leslie moved out to sea Tuesday afternoon, hours after its stiff winds and heavy rains pummelled Newfoundland, knocking out power to thousands and forcing the cancellation of all flights at the island's main airport.

Jean-Marc Couturier, a forecaster with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said Leslie passed through Cape Bonavista in northeastern Newfoundland early Tuesday afternoon and headed out to the Atlantic as a "post-tropical storm."

Chris Fogarty, a manager with the hurricane center, said rain showers ended early Tuesday evening and winds, gusting at 49 mph on Tuesday afternoon, will diminish significantly as the storm moves further offshore. He said storm warnings have been canceled across the island.

Several towns along eastern Newfoundland had already lost power, and flights were canceled before the storm made landfall Tuesday. Tree branches blocked several roads and there were multiple reports of roofs being blown off. Power was knocked out throughout St. John's, Newfoundland's capital, and communities along the southeastern coast of the Avalon peninsula.

Premier Kathy Dunderdale said there were no reports of serious injuries or major evacuations. Leslie was not as ferocious as Hurricane Igor, which pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane almost two years ago and caused about $128.5 million in damages, the hurricane center in Halifax, Nova Scotia, said. Igor was also blamed for one death. he storm made landfall Tuesday morning, touching down in Fortune at about 8:30 a.m. local time, and barreled north at about 40 mph before moving offshore, the Canadian Hurricane Centre said. The center initially said Leslie was a tropical storm when it made landfall, but later said it was a post-tropical storm.

The storm had buffeted areas around St. John's with winds that gusted up to 81 mph, causing damage to roofs, trees and roads, Environment Canada meteorologist Bob Robichaud said. Waves were reaching 33 feet at an offshore buoy. Extensive power outages forced St. John's to close all municipal buildings except City Hall. Schools were also shut down.

http://www.sfgate.com/world/article/Tropical-Storm-Leslie-blasts-Newfoundland-3858149.php

Tropical Storm LESLIE: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 69 hours lead

GFDL has it tracking way down into the Europe?