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Paranoid

Hurricane Kirk

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This one seemed to pop up suddenly, was only listed at 50% earlier today. Unlikely to be any threat to land and doesn't look like it will get particularly strong according to the NHC. First advisory below.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 282033

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012

500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO

THREAT TO LAND...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.8N 43.9W

ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SW OF THE AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17

KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

NONE

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Slow moving but a non-event, the Jet Stream is further south than when Gordon was around so we won't see a repeat.

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Strongly sheared at present. Although convection is deep it is being sheared east of the LLC. However, sustained winds are now at 35kts according to NRL so it looks like we have Kirk.

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Now forecast to become a hurricane in 4 days before going extra-tropical.

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Kirk has strengthened to 40kts. As SB says, Kirk is now forecast to strengthen rather than dissipate, as shear is expected to ease tomorrow and sea temps will be warm along track. The only impediment to development in the long term is dry air but with the other factors being favourable, Kirk should at least strengthen slowly. Kirk should round the Azores high in a west-northwest, north then northeast track and begin extratropical transition in around 4-5 days time as sea temps cool and shear rises again at this point.

al112012.12082906.gif

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Still a lot of time for change, but if the models stay the same as they currently do, it could hit us as an extratropical storm.

at201211_model.gif

at201211_ensmodel.gif

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Looks likely to be absorbed into a larger extratropical low but there is obviously a lot of time for change as you say.

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Looks to be tracking to he NW of the UK:

025631.gif

025631P_sm.gif

5.track.png5.track.png

Just clipping the Azores?

201211N_6F.png

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Kirk has continued to strengthen and is now a 55kt tropical storm. The tiny storm looks close to becoming a hurricane as in satellite imagery you can clearly see an eye forming. Kirk has a good 48hrs left to strengthen as shear remains low and waters warm. Though there is dry air near Kirk (accounting for it's small size), the shear will not be strong enough to drive it into the core of Kirk. Given Kirk's small size, it may be prone to quick fluctuations in intensity both up and down, down especially when shear rises significantly in 72hrs time. Kirk will weaken and then become extratropical shortly after, before becoming absorbed by a front in 96-120hrs time. The chances of Kirk remaining a seperate extratropical entity beyond this time are remote.

post-1820-0-90262700-1346323641_thumb.jp

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It would appear that we have Hurricane Kirk!

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ------------------------------ at 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the eye of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 27.2 north...longitude 49.5 west. Kirk is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/h. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is expected through Friday...followed by an acceleration to the north-northeast Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/h...with higher

gusts. Kirk is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48

hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles...20 km...from

the center...and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70

miles...110 km.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.21 inches.

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Indeed, sustained winds are up to 65kts, so a cat 1 hurricane. Kirk may well achieve cat 2 status IMO before the environment deteriorates. Kirk is gradually recurving as forecast.

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Latest model guidance takes Kirk as a direct hit to the UK next Tuesday. Not projected to gain much baroclinity as an extratropical storm, though, so it stays rather weak (according to the 12z GFS, ECM is somewhat different). Could produce yet more heavy rain, though.

Certainly looks very impressive right now. Looking like a nice red donut, with good a CDO forming. (Although that doesn't sound very appetising)

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Kirk has continued to strengthen, and is now an 80kt hurricane. Further intensification is expected, and it could be rapid given Kirk's small size. There is a very real chance Kirk could become the seasons first major hurricane (cat 3+), before shear rises and waters cool.

An extratropical storm containing some of the remnants of Kirk may come close to the UK next week, but it won't actually be Kirk, as Kirk's extratropical remnant is expected to be absorbed by a front in 5 days time well away from the UK. This of course may change too. It's a hell of a long way off but the GFS is looking rather interesting for Leslie reaching our shores.

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NASA Spies Fifth Atlantic Hurricane and Twelfth Tropical Depression

Tropical Storm Kirk intensified into a hurricane today, Aug. 30, while another tropical depression was born. Satellite imagery revealed Hurricane Kirk and newborn Tropical Depression 12 romping through the central Atlantic Ocean today, while Tropical Storm Isaac continues to drench the U.S. Gulf coast and Mississippi Valley. Kirk became the Atlantic Ocean season's fifth hurricane today, Aug. 30.

On Aug. 30 at 7:45 a.m. EDT, a visible image from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite captured all three tropical cyclones in a panoramic shot of the Atlantic Ocean basin. The visible image showed Tropical Storm Isaac over the U.S. Gulf coast, Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression 12 in the central Atlantic Ocean. Isaac was by far the largest of the three systems, with cloud cover extending from east Texas to the Carolinas. Hurricane Kirk appeared as a small, rounded , compact storm, located northwest of newborn Tropical Depression 12, which appeared larger than Kirk. The image was created by the NASA GOES Project at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

This visible image of Tropical Storm Isaac over the U.S. Gulf coast, Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression 12 in the central Atlantic Ocean. The image was taken from NOAA's GOES-13 satellite on Aug. 30 at 7:45 a.m. EDT.

Credit: NASA GOES Project

683047main_20120830_Kirk-12-GOES_full.jpg

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Strengthening then.......

MIAMI: Hurricane Kirk strengthened rapidly over the open Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, though it posed no hazard to land, US forecasters said.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center forecast that the storm, while powerful with top winds gusting at 90 miles (145 kilometers) per hour, would likely spin out over the open seas as it heads east toward Europe. At 2100 GMT, Kirk was about 1,065 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands as it headed north-northwestward at a speed of 13 miles per hour, according to the NHC.

Kirk is a category one storm on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale and was set to gather strength over the next couple of days, perhaps becoming a category two storm as early as Friday. Kirk became the fifth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic season earlier as the US Gulf Coast bears the brunt of Isaac, which caused massive flooding when it swept through Louisiana as a hurricane. It has since been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moved inland.

To the south of Kirk, Tropical Storm Leslie formed, though it also posed no current threat to land. It was on track to become a hurricane in a day or two, according to the NHC. The eye of the storm was located about 1,060 miles east of the Windward Islands as it spun rapidly westward at 21 miles per hour with top winds of 45 miles per hour.

http://thestar.com.m...ec=reutersworld

tropical-storm-kirk-2012-08-28jpg-873aef7a61183db1.jpeg

On track for the Faroes?

65.track.png

201211N_6G.png

Hurricane KIRK: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 93 hours lead

201211N_6F.png

Hurricane KIRK: Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

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Hurricane Kirk in Mid-Atlantic; TS Leslie May Hit Bermuda: NHC Reports

Two tropical cyclones – Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie – are currently active in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center in Miami is tracking both of them, as well as the remnants of Hurricane Isaac.

Hurricane Kirk seems to be roughly on the same storm track as Tropical Storm Gordon earlier this month. It iscurrently moving “toward the north-northwest near 12 mph, 19 km/h,†said the NHC’s 5:00 a.m. AST bulletin. However, “a turn to the north and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. The forecast track keeps Kirk over the open waters of the North Atlantic during the next two days.†On the NHC’s 5-day forecast track Kirk, or its remnants, could come ashore on the west coast of Ireland or Scotland next week.

At present it is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with maximum sustained winds around 105 mph, 165 km/h, with higher gusts. The NHC said “some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Saturday.â€

http://www.insurance...8/31/261342.htm

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Kirk is now a cat 2 with sustained winds of 90kts. If Kirk is to become a major hurricane then it has to be today because sea temps fall away along track tomorrow, and given Kirk's small size it may weaken quite quickly in response. Kirk has certainly gone against all predictions, from the experts and from us on here (me included), this was the first forecast!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012

500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW

PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW

CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER

TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF

WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS NOW REFORMED

CLOSER TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE

FROM SAB.

RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM MET-9 SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST

OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT

IN LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP

CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM

SOON. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE

FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE

WESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES WESTWARD

AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE

MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN

ABOUT THREE DAYS THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD

OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE

NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST

PERIOD...AND ITS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE AT SOME

POINT...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/09...AS THE

CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A WESTWARD

OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS

THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE

NORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY 72

HOURS AND A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST

IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS

AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 29/0600Z 24.1N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

48H 30/1800Z 25.3N 51.7W 35 KT 40 MPH

72H 31/1800Z 27.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 01/1800Z 32.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

120H 02/1800Z 40.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Shear has risen over Kirk, and this has weakened the hurricane quickly. Sustained winds have fallen to 70kts. As Kirk is small, the shear has done a quick job at unravelling the cyclone. Kirk has a rather shapeless area of convection over the LLC, which is decreasing in coverage. Further weakening then extratropical transition is expected. Soon after, Kirk will be no more as it gets absorbed by a cold front. Which answers your question Thundersnow :). He isn't coming to the UK.

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Kirk has continued to weaken. Winds have fallen to 65kts, minimal hurricane strength. Kirk maintains deep convection over the LLC, but an eye is difficult to depict on satellite imagery. Further weakening is expected as decreasing sea temps join with the raised shear. Kirk will become extratropical before being absorbed by a cold front in 48hrs time.

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Kirk is racing northeastwards and is losing tropical characteristics as sea temps fall below 21C beneath the system. Intensity has fallen to 45kts. Kirk is expected to complete extratropical transition and then become absorbed by a front later tomorrow.

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aww, I wanted kirk to come to England, too bad even if it were to hit land it would be in Ireland or Scotland.

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