Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Pollen

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Somerset Squall

Hurricane Ileana

Recommended Posts

After another lull in activity, Tropical Depression 09E has formed in the East Pacific, a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts. 09E looks close to becoming a tropical storm, especially as the system has deep central convection and increasingly well defined banding features. Over the next few days, 09E is expected to remain in a low shear environment with warm waters, which should allow for at least steady intensification. Although NHC don't forecast it, I think 09E has enough time to become a hurricane before it moves over cooler water on the west-northwesterly track.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Ileana has some persistant convection nearly covering the LLC with some banding features in the western quadrant. With low shear and warm sea temps expected to persist for the next 72hrs, Ileana is expected to strengthen into a hurricane to the southwest of Baja Califonia, before sea temps cool as the storm gains lattitude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical Storm Ileana has formed in the eastern Pacific coast off of Mexico, but currently poses no threat to land.

The National Hurricane Center said Monday night that the storm is located about 330 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 530 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving northwest about 12 mph. The Center said it could become a hurricane late Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

201209E.png

201209E_6F.png

Tropical Storm ILEANA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

201209E_4G.png

Tropical Storm ILEANA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 45 hours lead

2.track.png

2.track.current.png

2.windswath.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana has further intensified overnight and is now a 55kt tropical storm. Ileana has developed a central dense overcast indicative of a maturing system that is closing in on hurricane status. Ileana is expected to achieve this status in the next 24hrs as the storm moves to the northwest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana became a hurricane overnight, with sustained winds of 65kts. The intermittent eye is no longer visable on satellite imagery, so Ileana has probably peaked and will begin weakening imminently. The hurricane is moving over colder water, and shear is expected to rise soon, which will promote at least a steady decay of Ileana over the next few days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana is making the most of the environment. The hurricane is right on the edge of the warm water but has strengthened a little further to 70kts. It is possible that Ileana could become a little stronger this afternoon but by tomorrow Ileana will definitely be over cooler waters which will force the hurricane to weaken.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana has started to weaken and sustained winds have fallen to 65kts this morning. Convection has become more shallow as Ileana moves over cooler water. This weakening trend should continue as sea temps decline further.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana is now over waters of around 24C. Sustained winds have fallen to 45kts. Ileana has stopped gaining lattitude and is now moving westwards in the low level flow. Even though shear is low, the sea temps remain cool on the westward track, and as a result, Ileana will probably degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ileana continues to weaken, and is now a 30kt tropical depression. There is one lone cell of convection near the LLC, and as the cyclone traverses waters less than 24C in temperature, Ileana will find it difficult to fire any further significant convection. Therefore, Ileana is expected to become a remnant low later today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Somerset Squall
      TD 18E has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Winds are currently at 30kts. The depression is quite disorganised, with more than one LLCC associated with the convective mass. The depression is drifting northwestwards but should turn north then northeast soon as a trough approaches from the west and recurves 18E. The resultant track will bring 18E close to the southern tip of Baja California but ultimately a landfall on the coast of Mexico, north of Mazatlan. Based on the disorganised state of the depression, significant strengthening is not expected. The depression should become a weak tropical storm before waters cool and and shear rises along track.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      Tropical Storm Raymond has formed in the east of the basin, off the south coast of Mexico. The storm is set to take an unusual path and drift northeast towards the coast of Mexico into a weakness in the ridge to the north. The ridging is expected to build back in in a few days time, which may cause Raymond to turn back west away from the coast. There are large uncertainties however, as a later turn west would mean that Raymond makes landfall. Conditions are favourable for intensification, with low shear and warm sea temps in the area. Regardless of what happens with track, portions of Mexico are in for, yet again, some high rainfall totals and flooding this week.
       

       
       
       
       
    • By Somerset Squall
      An area of low pressure to the south-southwest of Tropical Storm Octave and well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become Tropical Storm Priscilla, with winds of 35kts. Priscilla is being sheared, partly to do with it's proximity to Tropical Storm Octave. The LLCC is located on the northeastern edge of an area of very intense convection. Despite the shear, Priscilla should still strengthen at least modestly over the next day or so. In a couple days time, shear will ease as Octave weakens, but Priscilla will be over cooler water by then, causing weakening.
       
      A ridge to the east over Mexico will push Priscilla north-northeast over the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is forecast to break down, and weakening Priscilla will be left to veer towards the west in the low level flow whilst it dissipates.
    • By Somerset Squall
      Tropical Depression 15E formed overnight, directly south of the southern tip of Baja California. Since, it has strengthened, and become Tropical Storm Octave, with winds of 40kts. The storm has a well defined LLCC, with bands wrapping into the north and south quadrants. There is not a huge amount of covection over the LLCC, but the convection from the bands should rectify this soon. Octave has about another 24 hours over warm water and under low shear. Octave is expected to intensify a little more before shear increases significantly and waters cool along track. This should bring about a swift weakening, and dissipation shortly after.
       
      Octave is currently moving to the northwest. A turn to the north then northeast towards Baja California is expected as an upper level low causes a weakness in the steering ridge. As shear and cooler waters await Octave west of Baja California, Octave should not reach here as a tropical storm, or even a tropical depression for that matter, but will increase rainfall here in a few days time.
       

    • By Somerset Squall
      After a lull lasting over two weeks, Tropical Storm Narda has formed in the East Pacific. The storm is located at around 13N 120W, well out to sea. Winds have increased to 40kts. Narda has a decent amount of convection over the LLCC, and some fairly strong banding features. As shear is set to remain low and waters warm over the next few days, Narda is expected to become a hurricane. Based on the structure of Narda and the favourable environment ahead, NHC's forecast peak of 70kts could be a little conservative, though based on the behaviour of the previous storms in this basin this year, it may well be near. Narda will not affect land as it takes a typical west-northwestward track over the coming days. In a few days time, shear will rise significantly and the storm will move over colder water, which will quickly weaken Narda. As the storm weakens, it will slow down and crawl towards the west as the steering currents are expected to collapse.
       


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×