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Somerset Squall

Hurricane Ileana

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After another lull in activity, Tropical Depression 09E has formed in the East Pacific, a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The depression has sustained winds of 30kts. 09E looks close to becoming a tropical storm, especially as the system has deep central convection and increasingly well defined banding features. Over the next few days, 09E is expected to remain in a low shear environment with warm waters, which should allow for at least steady intensification. Although NHC don't forecast it, I think 09E has enough time to become a hurricane before it moves over cooler water on the west-northwesterly track.

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The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana, with sustained winds now at 40kts. Ileana has some persistant convection nearly covering the LLC with some banding features in the western quadrant. With low shear and warm sea temps expected to persist for the next 72hrs, Ileana is expected to strengthen into a hurricane to the southwest of Baja Califonia, before sea temps cool as the storm gains lattitude.

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Tropical Storm Ileana has formed in the eastern Pacific coast off of Mexico, but currently poses no threat to land.

The National Hurricane Center said Monday night that the storm is located about 330 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and about 530 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. It has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving northwest about 12 mph. The Center said it could become a hurricane late Tuesday or Wednesday.

http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

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Tropical Storm ILEANA: Probability of tropical storm winds to 93 hours lead

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Tropical Storm ILEANA: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 45 hours lead

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Ileana has further intensified overnight and is now a 55kt tropical storm. Ileana has developed a central dense overcast indicative of a maturing system that is closing in on hurricane status. Ileana is expected to achieve this status in the next 24hrs as the storm moves to the northwest.

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Ileana became a hurricane overnight, with sustained winds of 65kts. The intermittent eye is no longer visable on satellite imagery, so Ileana has probably peaked and will begin weakening imminently. The hurricane is moving over colder water, and shear is expected to rise soon, which will promote at least a steady decay of Ileana over the next few days.

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Ileana is making the most of the environment. The hurricane is right on the edge of the warm water but has strengthened a little further to 70kts. It is possible that Ileana could become a little stronger this afternoon but by tomorrow Ileana will definitely be over cooler waters which will force the hurricane to weaken.

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Ileana has started to weaken and sustained winds have fallen to 65kts this morning. Convection has become more shallow as Ileana moves over cooler water. This weakening trend should continue as sea temps decline further.

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Ileana is now over waters of around 24C. Sustained winds have fallen to 45kts. Ileana has stopped gaining lattitude and is now moving westwards in the low level flow. Even though shear is low, the sea temps remain cool on the westward track, and as a result, Ileana will probably degenerate into a remnant low by tomorrow.

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Ileana continues to weaken, and is now a 30kt tropical depression. There is one lone cell of convection near the LLC, and as the cyclone traverses waters less than 24C in temperature, Ileana will find it difficult to fire any further significant convection. Therefore, Ileana is expected to become a remnant low later today.

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