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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Joyce

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The tenth tropical depression of the Atlantic season has formed mid-way between the west coast of Africa and the eastern Caribbean. Intensity is 30kts. The depression does not look at all healthy this evening as convection has decreased over the LLC. Nevertheless, NHC forecast some steady intensification as the cyclone heads wes-northwestwards. Later, a turn towards the northwest is expected as 10L rounds the ridging to the north. The track at this point depends on how strong 10L gets; a weaker cyclone will head to the west, a stronger cyclone will feel the weakness in the ridge that bit more and turn northward.

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TD10 has now become Joyce with the latest advisory. Sustained winds 40mph, 1006mb.

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Indeed Chris. Interesting fact about Joyce's formation from NHC:

THIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL

STORM OF A SEASON. IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22

AUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.

The environment ahead for Joyce is not all that favourable. An upper level low near Joyce is advecting dry air towards the storm and inflicting shear. Therefore, only slight strengthening is expected over the next few days. This upper level low is expected to move away and then Joyce may strenghen at a quicker pace as it curves northwards near Bermuda.

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Joyce is in trouble. Convection has been completely stripped away from the LLC which has been largely convectionless for the last 12hrs. Joyce has been downgraded to a tropical depression and could degenerate into a remnant low unless the convection comes back soon. With the upper level low (ULL) forecast to continue pumping dry air and shear into the system, there is a very good chance of this happening. Shear may well ease in a few days time but there may not be a lot left of Joyce by then.

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Joyce is difficult to get a forecast on the computer models so I don't think Joyce will may be a stronger hurricane on the way late next week. Joyce could may be impact to Europe into a Category 3 hurricane status or strong tropical storm status late next week. Europe do have a warm water temperature around 18C. Joyce will may not be reaches a hurricane status over the Bermuda early next week. Europe could may be pose a hurricane warning, where is in affects.

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Joyce is chasing Isaac!!

c75c08bffa269fefe76c69677779292f.png

HUVS.JPG

2.track.png

2.track.current.png

But is she going to do a right turn at Bermuda?

201210N.png

201210N_7G.png

Tropical Depression JOYCE: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

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Joyce is difficult to get a forecast on the computer models so I don't think Joyce will may be a stronger hurricane on the way late next week. Joyce could may be impact to Europe into a Category 3 hurricane status or strong tropical storm status late next week. Europe do have a warm water temperature around 18C. Joyce will may not be reaches a hurricane status over the Bermuda early next week. Europe could may be pose a hurricane warning, where is in affects.

I don't know where you are getting your information from Storm Track or whether it's just your opinion. If it is just your opinion, sorry but I disagree with just about all of it. Joyce is very unlikely to impact Europe at all, let alone at cat 3 hurricane status. Hurricane warnings are not issued in Europe, because hurricanes have never occurred there (well Vince 2005 made landfall in Spain as a mere tropical depression).

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I don't think that storms had been worse to over the passes of the few years ago in the North Atlantic but not now. I'm agree with you but Joyce won't be reached a hurricane status as a post-tropical cyclone at the moment. This storm will not impact to Europe late next week. Staying over the Bermuda there.

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