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Somerset Squall

Typhoon Bolaven

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

200000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 141.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 141.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z --- 18.6N 141.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z --- 19.3N 140.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

211200Z --- 19.5N 138.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

220000Z --- 19.7N 137.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

230000Z --- 20.1N 134.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 20.6N 132.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

250000Z --- 21.4N 130.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 141.4E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM

SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z

IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.

REFER TO TYPHOON 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY

UPDATES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 190951Z AUG 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION

ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 191000).//

Looks to become an intense typhoon as it heads west towards Taiwan over the coming days.

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Just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bolaven by JMA. Looks like it's strengthening quite quickly. The upper level environment is favourable for continued intensification for the next 5 days as Bolaven heads westwards towards Taiwan and Eastern China along the south side of a subtropical ridge over Japan.

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wp200012.gif

201208200301mtsat2vis16.jpg

6319thaug201212z168.gif

TS 1215 (BOLAVEN)

Issued at 07:10 UTC, 20 August 2012

<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>

Scale -

Intensity -

Center position N17°25'(17.4°)

E141°25'(141.4°)

Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly

Central pressure 1000hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)

Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>

Intensity -

Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)

E139°00'(139.0°)

Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)

Central pressure 994hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)

Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>

Intensity -

Center position of probability circle N20°20'(20.3°)

E135°50'(135.8°)

Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)

Central pressure 985hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)

Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>

Intensity -

Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)

E131°40'(131.7°)

Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)

Central pressure 975hPa

Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)

Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

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Looks like Taiwan could get slammed by two intense typhoons this week. Tembin first, then this one cruising in after.

LOL looks like they made a bit of an error in that top image Coast, that track is for Tembin not Bolaven

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LOL looks like they made a bit of an error in that top image Coast, that track is for Tembin not Bolaven

Damn!!! Not concentrating again, it's the double whammy affect!

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Bolaven has strengthened to 45kts. The storm has persistant, deep convection over the LLC, with some good banding features stretching to the southwest. JTWC are quite robust in strengthening Bolaven, and this is not surprising given the environment is quite similar to what the rapidly intensifying Typhoon Tembin is experiencing further west.

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Bolaven has continued to strengthen. Intensity is now at 55kts, and the storm has developed a central dense overcast feature. Bolaven is likely to be a typhoon later today or early tomorrow. Further intensification is then expected through the next 5 days as shear remains low to moderate, waters remain very warm along the forecast track, and upper level outflow remains good in all directions. Bolaven is expected to continue to head west-northwestwards along the south side of a ridge over Japan. In 4-5 days time, Bolaven's track may begin to turn slightly to the northwest or even north-northwest as the storm reaches the western extent of the ridge and possibly begins to feel a pull from a trough advancing through eastern China. The timing of this turn is uncertain, but it may spare Taiwan, who are already facing a landfall from category 4 typhoon Tembin. Of course, this would still leave Eastern China at risk, though this is a long way off and the more northerly bend in forecast track and the potential timing is far from certain.

wp201216_5day.gif

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Bolaven is now a typhoon with sustained winds of 70kts. The typhoon has a well established central dense overcast which is circular, indicative of how low the shear is over the system. Bolaven continues to head west-northwestwards and should continue this motion for the next few days. As I mentioned before, a turn towards the northwest is then expected but the timing is uncertain. With the favourable environment expected to persist, Bolaven should continue to strengthen.

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Bolaven is now a cat 2 with sustained winds of 90kts. The typhoon has a solid central dense overcast with a cloud filled eye. Bolaven should strengthen further over the next day or two, before weakening as shear rises. The northward turn is now expected to expected well east of Taiwan, which then puts Shanghai, China at higher risk from Bolaven, as the current track has the typhoon turning north not far off the coast.

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Bolaven has strengthened to 100kts. The typhoon's eye is now clearly visable on satellite imagery and the banding surrounding the eye is strong and well defined. Further intensification is expected as Bolaven heads to the northwest over the next day or so. Bolaven is expected to recurve well east of Shanghai now as the weakness in the ridge opens up a little sooner than expected. In around 48hrs, Bolaven should peak in intensity and begin to weaken over cooler water and increased shear. Bolaven will still bring heavy rains to the Japanese Islands, North and South Korea and Eastern China over the coming days, even though the strongest winds may remain out to sea.

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Bolaven has become a cat 4 with sustained winds of 115kts. The typhoon has a well defined eye surrounded by healthy banding. Bolaven is a very large storm which could intensify a little further over the next couple days. Intensity may well also be governed by eyewall replacement cycles, common in cyclones of this strength. Kadena AB looks to be in the firing line from a direct hit at peak intensity. Thereafter, as Bolaven continues to pull northwards, the typhoon should make landfall in 4-5 days time on the west coast of North Korea. As I said before however, Eastern China, Western Japan and South and North Korea are all at risk of flooding rains due to the sheer size of Bolaven.

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a direct hit for okinawa? Could be good to watch on some webcams there

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Looks like Bolaven could be approaching cat 5 intensity in the vicinity too. Sustained winds are now 120kts, and JTWC forecast a 130kt peak. However, there's nothing in the way of Bolaven potentially becoming stronger than this.

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Hey guys been reading through some of these hurricane/typhoon threads these past few days and am quite interested, is there a learning guide anywhere thanks in advance!

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Hi Staffordshire, Kold Weather's Hurricane Tutorial thread pinned near the top of the hurricane forum is as good as place as any to start :)

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Eyewall replacement currently taking place eyewall should become bigger as inner one disappears shortly

Anyone who wants to watch webcams for oki...currently dark... should be interesting in 24 hours

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/yoron/tv/

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/yoron/tv/kajiki.html

http://www.tomarin.com/webcam/index.php

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Bolaven peaked just below super typhoon strength, at 125kts. The typhoon passed over Okinawa yesterday bringing copious amounts of rain and damaging winds. Cooler water and increasing shear has weakened Bolaven to 95kts as the typhoon moves northwards towards North and South Korea.

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Bolaven has weakened to 70kts. The typhoon is still showing an eye but the convection is becoming shallower as Bolaven moves over colder water. Bolaven is still expected to be a minimal typhoon prior to landfall on the west coast of North Korea in 12hrs time. Dissipation will occur soon after as increasing shear and topography tear Bolaven apart.

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South Korean typhoon kills fishermen

At least eight people die as Typhoon Bolaven smashes ships on rocks, cuts power to hundreds of thousands and cancels flights

South-Korean-police-rescu-010.jpg

A powerful typhoon has struck South Korea, killing at least eight people, including five fishermen. Strong winds and heavy rain churned up rough seas and smashed two fishing ships on to rocks, forcing the coastguard to perform a daring rescue of the survivors.

Twelve fishermen were saved and rescuers were still searching for 10 missing from the Chinese ships, which hit rocks off South Korea's southern Jeju island. At least three other people died as Typhoon Bolaven knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of South Koreans, cancelled flights and temporarily halted joint war games by US and South Korean military forces. State media in North Korea, which is still struggling to rebuild from recent floods and a devastating drought, reported on Tuesday that the country was being lashed by heavy rain and strong winds.

Off Jeju island, dangerous waves prevented rescue boats from approaching the Chinese fishing ships. The coastguard used a special gun to shoot rope to one ship so officers could pull themselves over and bring the fishermen back to shore, coastguard spokesman Ko Chang-keon said. Of the 18 fishermen who survived, six swam or were washed ashore. South Korea issued a storm warning for the capital, Seoul, as Bolaven battered the country's south and west, knocking over street lights and church spires and ripping down shop signs. A large container box crushed the caretaker of an apartment building to death, a woman fell to her death from a rooftop and a third person died after bricks hit a house, according to disaster and fire officials.

Strong winds left Seoul's streets covered with leaves, branches and rubbish. More than 15,000 schools cancelled classes, and businesses and homes boarded up windows. More than 330,000 households had lost power, the government said, and more than 70 people were left homeless because of floods or storm damage. Nearly 200 flights were cancelled. In North Korea, Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency reported gale-force winds and heavy rain in many parts of the country. Rainstorms often mean catastrophe in North Korea because of poor drainage, deforestation and decrepit infrastructure.

The country is still trying to help people with food, shelter, healthcare and clean water after heavy flooding in July, according to a recent United Nations report. More than 170 died nationwide, and tens of thousands of homes were destroyed in the floods, according to official North Korean accounts. Many flood victims still lived in tents with limited access to water and other basic facilities, the UN report said, and there was concern about malnutrition. Seoul's unification ministry approved a trip on Wednesday by two South Korean aid groups to visit the North Korean city of Kaesong for talks on aid. Weather officials had warned that Bolaven would be the strongest typhoon to hit the region in several years, but its winds turned out not to be as powerful as expected. The typhoon hit the southern Japanese island of Okinawa on Monday, injuring four people but doing less damage than feared before moving out to sea. More than 75,000 households lost power.

Further south, another typhoon, Tembin, doubled back and hit Taiwan three days after drenching the same region before blowing out to sea. Fierce winds and rain toppled coconut trees in the beach resort town of Hengchun. In Manila, the Philippine weather agency reissued typhoon warnings to residents and fishermen for Tembin, which blew out of the archipelago over the weekend. Fishing boats in the north were urged not to venture out to sea while larger ships were warned of possible big waves and heavy rains.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/28/fishermen-killed-typhoon-south-korea?newsfeed=true

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