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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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So its four months in six that are 1C or more below the recent 30 year average, not since Dec 1995 - May 1996 has that happened.

Im not sure why the 1961-90 average is being used all of a sudden, I dont remember the 1951-80 averages being used in the 2000s?

I'm using them as a threshold as they were the only months left that hadn't produce at least one that was 0.5C below the 1961-90 average for at least 15 years. Believe it or not April 2012 was the first such April since that average came into being! The last occasions June and September were, when 1961-90 was the latest 30 year average.

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The figures confirmed at 13.0c as above, 1.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

No-one got this spot on, and generally most people went for much milder probably based on a warm start to September being expected, however this was offset by a very cool remainder of the month.

Harve (prediction of 12.9) and Wales123098 (13.1) was both 0.1c out, so well done to both.

The Autumn seasonal comp sees Wales123098 (1st), Harve (2nd), with 3 other players who were 0.2 out in 3rd, 4th and 5th. Isolated Frost, Ferryhill Weather and cheeky_monkey respectively.

Overall no change in the top 2 with reef leading from DR Hosking with Thundery wintry showers up to 3rd. But still very close.

Figures in the usual Excel and PDF Format.

Sept 2012 CET.xls

Sept 2012 CET.pdf

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Oh dear yet another month where I my guess is way out... I thought we might just come under 13 degrees. Anyway it ended up quite an autumnal month and a rare cool wet September.

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It's too bad we are captives of the calendar because there was a fourth notable cold month earlier in the year, it ran from 14 Jan to 13 Feb if you like, and I believe the CET for that "month" was about 2 deg below normal. Of course there was also the first two thirds of May. Basically you could say about half of 2012 so far has been notably below normal and the other half generally near normal except for the first half of January and most of March, a week in mid-August was rather hot too. This year would fade into the background of the Dalton without any adjustment for AGW or UHI -- -- RJS.

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It's too bad we are captives of the calendar because there was a fourth notable cold month earlier in the year, it ran from 14 Jan to 13 Feb if you like, and I believe the CET for that "month" was about 2 deg below normal. Of course there was also the first two thirds of May. Basically you could say about half of 2012 so far has been notably below normal and the other half generally near normal except for the first half of January and most of March, a week in mid-August was rather hot too. This year would fade into the background of the Dalton without any adjustment for AGW or UHI -- -- RJS.

I'd rather call describe it as, in general, longer spells of moderately below average weather with short bursts of notable warmth (early January, late February, late March, late May, early August, early September).

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Does anybody actually have the link just to confirm the CET outturn?

I did quite well this month.

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a rare cool wet September.

The rainfall figures are highly distorted though at least for England and Wales. The first 22 days were largely dry.

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