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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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Amazingly the last occasion April, June and September were at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average in the same year was 1918!

The last occasion April and June were at least 0.5C below average and September was below the 1961-90 average in the same year was 1977

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Although only the coldest in September since 25th September 2010 which recorded 8.1c. This in turn was the coolest CET day for September since 30th September 1988 which logged a very chilly 7.8c.

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2010 is the year to beat then.

Yeah we'll see if 2012 can draw level...

By the way, does anybody know... what is the longest run of below average months?

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Yeah we'll see if 2012 can draw level...

By the way, does anybody know... what is the longest run of below average months?

Every month from and including November 1878 to January 1880 were below average against 1841-70 averages.

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Today's minimum is 5.7C while maxima were around 12C, so a drop to 13.7C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

13.6C to the 24th (11.9)

13.5C to the 25th (10.6)

13.5C to the 26th (12.4)

13.5C to the 27th (13.8]

13.5C to the 28th (13.5)

13.4C to the 29th (12.0)

13.4C to the 30th (11.6)

Current finish after corrections looking like 13.0-13.2C at the moment. Still a small chance of going sub 13C.

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Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8]

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Since and including January 2010, we have recorded 16 months below the 1971-2000 average. It took to August 2006 to record the 16th month below the 1971-2000 average starting from January 2001.

Jan 2001-Aug 2006: 16

Jan 2010-Jun 2012: 16

No question we are returning more below the 1971-2000 average months recently than we were 10 years ago.

Many thanks for this post. As I thought only 2001, 2008 and 2010 delivered 5 or more months below average. 2010 the most at 8, and 5 of these were nearly (Aug) or more than 1 degree below average, Dec 2010 really stands out nearly 6 degrees below average, not sure whether we managed any months in the 20th century equally at similiar level below average...

Winter 08/09 returned three months below average - only just though. 2008 managed 7 months below average, but unlike 2010 only December returned a significantly below average month i.e. more than 1 degree below.

2001 managed three months 1 degree or more below average.

The period Dec 2003 - Nov 2005 only returned 1 month below average, it was a very mild period indeed.

Of all the months, December has returned the most below average CET figures in absolute terms but equals July in total numbers , 7 in total since 2001 out of a possible 11. 4 of these were 1.5 degree or more below normal, with a notable run of very cold Decembers between 2008 -2010. July has been a very poor month in the last 5 years or so, 5 out of 6 July's since 2007 have been below normal.

May has returned the least number of below average CET values since 2001, only 1 month.. we came close this year.. September and November have only brought 2, but this Sept should raise number for this month to 3.

Whether 2012 equals 2010 in the number of below average months remains to be seen - I doubt it, but there is a good chance of it at least returning 6.

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Every month from and including November 1878 to January 1880 were below average against 1841-70 averages.

Yeah we'll see if 2012 can draw level...

By the way, does anybody know... what is the longest run of below average months?

In modern times every month from March 1962 to February 1963 inclusive was below the 1961-1990 average CET.

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It is perhaps unsurprising that we see such a string of cold months when we consider that 2010 also saw an El Nino, -QBO combination (the difference this year being that we have a -PDO which may be killing the El Nino).

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Every month from and including November 1878 to January 1880 were below average against 1841-70 averages.

In modern times every month from March 1962 to February 1963 inclusive was below the 1961-1990 average CET.

That is amazing, thank you both for your answers. So we've managed only four consecutive months this century...

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Dec 2010 really stands out nearly 6 degrees below average, not sure whether we managed any months in the 20th century equally at similiar level below average...

Dec 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb on that list, it was exceptionally below average. Out of interest, does anyone know what is the most anomalous month in the history of the CET series, in terms of below average temperatures? A top 10 list would be nice wink.png

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13.7c to the 23rd, -0.1c

Looking at the GFS, the last week looks like coming in about 11.0C

If accurate that would give us 13.1C as a provisional figure - so sub 13C very possible still.

It may also give us a sub 11C 2nd half the month which would be in the coolest 5 2nd half of Septembers in the last 100 years (i think) and the coolest since 1974

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Looking at the GFS, the last week looks like coming in about 11.0C

If accurate that would give us 13.1C as a provisional figure - so sub 13C very possible still.

It may also give us a sub 11C 2nd half the month which would be in the coolest 5 2nd half of Septembers in the last 100 years (i think) and the coolest since 1974

Yes. I can still remember the excitement, as many 'experts' predicted a cold winter and a white Xmas...Hopefully, things have moved-on since then?

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Dec 2010 sticks out like a sore thumb on that list, it was exceptionally below average. Out of interest, does anyone know what is the most anomalous month in the history of the CET series, in terms of below average temperatures? A top 10 list would be nice wink.png

I don't have the stats, but I'm sure it's likely to be January 1795 with a CET of -3.1C. Perhaps someone could clarify?

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Jan 1795 must have really been something, especially when you consider that it was 2.4C colder than Dec 2010, and we all know how cold that was. In another league, hopefully Jan 2013 can steal it's thunder! (wishfull thinking...)

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Top 4 greatest negative anomalies since 1900 (against 61-90 period)

Jan 1963 -2.1c (-5.9c)

Feb 1947 -1.9c (-5.7c)

Dec 2010 -0.7c (-5.4c)

January 1940 -1.4c (-5.2c)

But in terms of how exceptional the month is December 2010 would come in at a relative value of -1.6c if that anomaly were to be achieved in January or February. So in that case December 2010 is the second most exceptional month in terms of cold since 1900

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The top 5 coldest months, for each month since 1900...

January CET Anomaly

1963.... -2.1.... -5.9

1940.... -1.4.... -5.2

1979.... -0.4.... -4.2

1945..... 0.4.... -3.4

1941..... 0.5.... -3.3

February CET Anomaly

1947.... -1.9.... -5.7

1986.... -1.1.... -4.9

1963.... -0.7.... -4.5

1956.... -0.2.... -4.0

1942..... 0.1.... -3.7

March CET Anomaly

1962.... 2.8.... -2.9

1917.... 3.2.... -2.5

1955.... 3.2.... -2.5

1916.... 3.3.... -2.4

1969.... 3.3.... -2.4

April CET Anomaly

1917... 5.4... -2.5

1922... 5.5... -2.4

1986... 5.8... -2.1

1908... 6.0... -1.9

1936... 6.3... -1.6

May CET Anomaly

1902.. 8.9.. -2.3

1996.. 9.1.. -2.1

1923.. 9.2.. -2.0

1941.. 9.4.. -1.8

1955.. 9.7.. -1.5

June CET Anomaly

1909... 11.8.. -2.4

1916... 11.8.. -2.4

1972... 11.8.. -2.4

1991... 12.1.. -2.1

1977... 12.2.. -2.0

July CET Anomaly

1922... 13.7.. -2.4

1919... 13.9.. -2.2

1965... 14.0.. -2.1

1907... 14.1.. -1.0

1920... 14.1.. -1.0

August CET Anomaly

1912.... 12.9... -2.9

1956.... 13.5... -2.3

1920.... 13.6... -2.2

1922.... 13.6... -2.2

1986.... 13.7... -2.1

September CET Anomaly

1952..... 10.7.... -2.9

1912..... 11.1.... -2.5

1986..... 11.3.... -2.3

1925..... 11.5.... -2.1

1931..... 11.5... .-2.1

October CET Anomaly

1905.... 7.1.... -3.5

1919.... 7.4.... -3.2

1917.... 7.5.... -3.1

1974.... 7.8.... -2.8

1992.... 7.8.... -2.8

November CET Anomaly

1915..... 2.8.... -3.8

1910..... 3.2.... -3.4

1919..... 3.3.... -3.3

1923..... 3.3.... -3.3

1925..... 3.6.... -3.0

December CET Anomaly

2010.... -0.7.... -5.4

1981..... 0.3.... -4.4

1950..... 1.2.... -3.5

1933..... 1.6.... -3.1

1962..... 1.8.... -2.9

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Good chance we might just see a CET value below 13 degrees - very much will depend on any downward adjustments. The rest of the month looks quite average, but one or two cool nights could put a dent in temps.

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Down to 13.2C for Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone.

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18z GFS gets us to a provisional figure of 13.1C to 13.2C if verifying.

High 12s after recalibration?

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Minimum today is 8.9C, while maxima look like being around 15C, so a drop to 13.4C tomorrow.

The 06z GFS then has the CET around

13.3C to the 27th (11.3)

13.3C to the 28th (11.6)

13.2C to the 29th (10.3)

13.1C to the 30th (11.1)

Sub 13C looking more likely now, probably 55/45 in favour.

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