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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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15.1C to the 13th.

Possible that 1 or 2 days next week might have values under 10C. Not an especially rare event, but certainly noteworthy, especially in the context of recent years.

If the latest output is to be believed, then sub 13C couldn't be ruled out categorically yet. But I think it will come in slightly north of 13C.

I hope so, I've guessed 13.6C! Although it would be nice to see the CET come in at least 0.5C below the average to complete the triple whammy in one year with April and June also coming in 0.5C or more below.

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If September finished at 13.0C that would mean April, June and September would all have had mean temps 1.0C or more below the 1981-2010 average.

Its a longshot though, we'd require the remaining 17 days to average 11.4C.

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Certainly turning into quite an interesting September weatherwise with variety very much an apt word to describe how it has been so far - unlike many recent Septembers which have been very homogenuous with a distinct bias to dry warm weather or just cloudy average conditions. So far we've seen proper warmth, and very brief cool shots interspersed with atlantic attacks. The outlook is painting a rather cool unsettled picture and very much an autumnal one - quite often we see the atlantic stirring into autumn gear around the equinox and going off today's model outputs this looks very much the case this year.

There is a good chance now of this month ending up below average - odds last weekend looked low, however, I doubt it will end up much below average. Nights next week look quite chilly, and maxima low in the north, I'm expecting a NW-SE tilt in the jet for much of the rest of the month with mid atlantic heights which means cool showery or wet days and temporary drier periods with chilly nights, similiar synoptics to tuesday/wednesday just gone.

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Today's minimum is 8.5C while maxima were around 19C, so 14.8C is likely tomorrow.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET around

14.7C to the 18th (12.7)

14.6C to the 19th (11.5)

14.5C to the 20th (13.3)

14.4C to the 21st (13.6)

14.3C to the 22nd (11.6)

14.2C to the 23rd (12.2)

14.1C to the 24th (12.0)

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Today's 12z has the CET at 14.3C by the 25th. A significant cool spell will be needed in the last week to reach 13.0C methinks, especially with the milder wet spell forecast Sunday and Monday.

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I think 13C was always unlikely given the relatively warm start to the month. A couple of runs last week suggested that it might be on however they were forecasting what would probably be close to the some of the coolest 2nd half of September's ever and were always likely to moderated.

mid 13s still possible with month end adjustments. Equally it could stay above 14C with some high uppers being forecast to get quite near the CET zone in the mid term.

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Next few days will bring below average maxima to most places especially the north, 12's, 13's and 14's maxima = 2-3 degrees below average in the north, further south 15's and 16's maxima = 2 -3 degrees below average, combined with cool nights means the CET will drop a few 0.1 degrees by the end of the week.

Hard to say where we might eventually end up - still a long way to go, but mid-high 13's might not be a bad bet, meaning another below average month CET wise for the year.

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Sad times indeed when we get excited by a cooler than average month! Completley natural of course, but this is the new world order of things exceptions aside.

I've been waiting for 12 months for one here blink.png

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14.4C to the 19th (the 19th came in at 10.7C, the coolest value since May 20th.)

Models have taken a slightly cooler twist again today, so we could end up somewhere in the mid 13s before adjustments. The 22nd has the potential to be a sub 10C day.

13.1C to 13.4C would be my best estimate from here.

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14.1c to the 21st. looks like my guess of 14.1 is going to be far too high!

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Yes low 13's very likely.

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I went bang on average with 13.6C, but I think that's too high. I shouldn't be too far off though. If people could guess after the first week I doubt anyone would have said below 14C, but this is looking almost certain now.

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Last night came in at 3.3C so today will be a relatively rare sub 10C September day. Tomorrow has a chance of being sub 10C too, depends how much temps can dip before the cloud rolls in tonight.

Doesn't look like much upwards pressure on the CET from now until the end of the month, so somewhere just over 13C looks a good bet now.

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Anything equalling or below 13.0c will result in the anomaly being atleast 1.0c below normal against the 81-000 mean. Three other months this year so far have been atleast 1.0c below normal.

April (-1.3c)

June (-1.0c)

July (-1.2c)

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With a week to go and strong signals that the coming days will bring below average CET values, it now looks almost certain we will see a CET below the 1980-2010 average. Indeed low 13's looks the most likely finishing range and there is a possibility that we could end up below 13 degrees though only just which would mean a comfortably below average month.

Its been a real mixed month so far temp wise, with a very warm start, but recent days have been rather cool despite the sunshine and dry weather especially in the north with maxima often 3 degrees below, 12's, 13's and 14's as opposed to 15's, 16's and 17's.

Tomorrow looks a cold day in the CET zone maxima wise, many places struggling to hit 10 degrees, some 6-7 degrees the average maxima value, notably cold for September. I haven't seen the temp graph for the month so far, but I suspect it shows a classic downward turn from the month start.

Anyone tell me how many below average CET months we have seen so far this year, and how this compares to recent years. I think 2010 managed half a dozen such months, but most years since the mid 90's have rarely delivered more than 3 or 4... correct me if I'm wrong.

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Number of below average months this year (including September is 5).

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Number of below average months this year (including September is 5).

Thanks. Feb, April, June and July then.

May was only just above average I think... and August not that much above average either.

The last 3 years have certainly delivered many below average CET months compared to most years since 1995, exceptions being 1996 (Feb, Mar, May, Nov and Dec possibly Sept? and 2001 I think there were 6 - Jan, Feb, Mar, May, Sept and Dec). Some years such as 1999 I don't believe brought any... if it did only slightly below average months possibly in Oct and Nov?.

What is also notable about the last three years has been the number of CET months 1 degree or more below normal. Many CET monthe below normal in years inbetween 1995- 2010 were only a few 0.1 degrees below normal, with exceptions such as Dec 95, Mar 96, May 96, Dec 96 etc.

However, unlike 2010 which saw 2 signficantly below average months in Jan and Dec, 2012 so far has yet to yield a month more than 1.2 degrees below normal, as a cold lover lets hope December is the one to do it..

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Anyone tell me how many below average CET months we have seen so far this year, and how this compares to recent years. I think 2010 managed half a dozen such months, but most years since the mid 90's have rarely delivered more than 3 or 4... correct me if I'm wrong.

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8]

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Since and including January 2010, we have recorded 16 months below the 1971-2000 average. It took to August 2006 to record the 16th month below the 1971-2000 average starting from January 2001.

Jan 2001-Aug 2006: 16

Jan 2010-Jun 2012: 16

No question we are returning more below the 1971-2000 average months recently than we were 10 years ago.

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14 months 1C below average or more, 3 months 2C below average or more but all in the past 3 years.

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