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A Winter's Tale

September CET Watch

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15.7ºC (Can I sneak that in - completely forgot!)

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Oops forgot this so late yet again - I'll try 14.8C please

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Haven't entered in a while, but "15.1c" will be my punt.

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The first 8 or so days look like being very warm indeed for September, and it would take a very brave person to guess much below from that benchmark. Personally I think even if the pattern becomes more mobile, the overcast nights will more than account for the cooler and breezier days.

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For the first time since March the odds on of a warmer than average month look much higher this month - I've yet to read a forecast suggesting a cooler than average September. Whilst it is very unlikely to reach the dizzy heights of Sept 2006 it could end up an appreciably above average affair if the jet decides to stay to the north of us for a lengthy period - the first time since March. Whilst warm septembers are very pleasant, they cannot rival May, June, July or August for overall appeal, a sunny day in September quickly becomes a dark one by 7.30pm... and that overall feeling of things coming to a slow ebb.. in preparation for the long 'quiet season' ahead..

Mind a dry sunny warm september could mean a great burst of autumn colour in October.. I will be keeping my eyes on a local horse chestnut tree in the coming days as it is usually the first tree I notice which changes leaf colour very quickly often turning lovely russet by the latter part of the month.

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If we want a nice heatwave in September, we preferably want it in the first 10 days so we can take advantage of the dark sets in at like a20.20-20.30, (in my town at least).

Last years record breaking heatwave - as amazing as it was- (in regards to heat and sunshine) - was partially ruined by the fact that it began going dark around 19.20-19.30 Bloody nights drawing in, pain in the I have a problem.

Don't get me wrong, I want a heatwave, just one where we can enjoy light, warm evenings (like we had mid-late May of this year). I am looking forward to this weeks upcoming warm spell and next weeks potential heatwave.

Fingers crossed guys!

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Updated Table of September CET forecasts and trivia


22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

17.0 ... Craig Evans

16.8 ... warmest (2006)

16.6 ... second warmest (1729)

16.3 ... Backtrack ...... -- third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949) --

16.2 ...

16.1 ...

16.0 ...

15.9 ... Summer Sun, Alex

15.8 ... Jack Wales

15,7 ... Scorcher, shuggee*

15.6 ... Styx, davehsug

15.5 ... mark4, Gael_Force, AtlanticFlamethrower**

15.4 ... pj20101, BrightInBrighton, coram

15.3 ... Stationary Front, TonyH, Tellow*

15.2 ... Norrance, stewfox*

15.1 ... March Blizzard, The watcher* TomW*

15.0 ... Paul T, The PIT, Duncan McAlister

14.9 ... Milhouse, Fozfoster, DAVID SNOW, Aaron*

14.8 ... Kentish Man, Stormmad26*

14.7 ... Rybris Ponce, AderynCoch, Don

14.6 ... mulzy, DR Hosking

14.5 ... damianslaw, Gavin P ...... --- average 2001-2011 ---

14.4 ... virtualsphere, weather-history

14.3 ... A Winter's Tale, reef

14.2 ... DeepSnow, Roger J Smith, Jackone, ARW WeatherMan***

14.1 ... Stargazer, godber

14.0 ... BornFromTheVoid ...... --- average 1981-2010 ---

13.9 ... Mesoscale, Mark Bayley

13.8 ... Polar Maritime

13.7 ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 ---

13.6 ... 22nov10blast, BARRY ........ --- average 1961-1990 ---

13.5 ... Snowstorm1, summer blizzard ...... --- average 1701-1800, 1901-2000 ---

13.4 ... Terminal Moraine*

13.3 ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-2011 ---

13.2 ... Isolated Frost

13.1 ... Wales 123098 ...... --- average 1801-1900 ---

13.0 ...

12.9 ... Harve

12.8 ... Ferryhill Weather, cheeky_monkey

12.6 ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ---

12.3 ... SteveB

11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied 14th coldest (1986)

10.7 ... coldest recent month and sixth coldest (1952)

10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)

10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

4.9 .... coldest day (28th, 1824)


* for late days (up to three)

60 entrants, median forecast 14.9 C

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16.0C to the 5th


Yesterday was 14.1C. Today's minimum is 7.5C while maxima are likely to be over 20C, so 15.7C likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.9C to the 7th (17.1)

16.2C to the 8th (18.5)

16.5C to the 9th (18.2)

16.5C to the 10th (16.8]

16.1C to the 11th (12.0)

15.7C to the 12th (11.6)

15.5C to the 13th (13.3)

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15.8C to the 7th.

Those cool minimas are stopping the CET from rising, and I suspect even the warmth over this weekend will not push it much further upwards.

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Suspect we will see the peak CET value tomorrow for the month just nudging into the 16's, the next few days will see a downturn thanks to much cooler maxima and some preety cool minima on some days, so by mid month I expect we could be in the high 14's.

There has been a tendency so far this year for periods of between 7-10 days of well above average CET values quickly then cancelled out by longer periods of average and often below average values.

Well above average CET values occured in first 10 days or so of Jan, mid- late Feb (around 10 days or just above), last 10 days or so of March, last 10 days of May, very end July/early august only about 7 days and now the first 10 days of September. Interesting to see how most of our above average spells of the year have occured at the end of calander months exceptions being August and to a lesser extent April and Jan. Sept along with Jan and Aug though have bucked the trend of most months which have often started quite chilly if not well below average as the case with Feb, April, May, June and July, even the very mild March saw a shortlived colder interlude in the first week. Just a statistical quirk I thought I'd mention. Hoping we are now seeing a reversal in the trend as we move into the colder months of the year, with the coldest weather of each month reserved for the latter part which is traditionally much more the norm, much rather have a colder end to Oct, Nov and Dec than beginning - a repeat of 2008 would be good in this respect, but with the cold occuring just before christmas rather than after christmas as was the case then.

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16.0C to the 9th


Yesterday was 16.2C. Today's minimum is the highest of the month so far at 14.8C, while maxima look like being over 20C, so an increase to to 16.2C is possible tomorrow.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

15.9C to the 11th (13.1)

15.6C to the 12th (12.7)

15.5C to the 13th (13.6)

15.6C to the 14th (16.7)

15.5C to the 15th (15.0)

15.5C to the 16th (14.8]

15.5C to the 17th (16.1)

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