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Somerset Squall

Typhoon Tembin

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Tropical Storm Tembin has formed east of the Philippines, and has sustained winds of 35kts. The storm is drifting in a weak steering environment, but ridging is expected to build to the east forcing Tembin northward soon. A second ridge, over Japan, is expected to influence Tembin in about 4 days time, and it currently looks like Tembin will make landfall in Taiwan later this week, though this is still a little uncertain. Tembin is expected to strengthen in low shear and warm sea temps, and is likely to become a typhoon prior to reaching Taiwan. Looks like another very wet week for this part of the world.

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Tembin continues to strengthen this afternoon. Intensity is up to 45kts. The storm has impressive banding features curling around the LLC. A central dense overcast appears to be forming directly over the LLC. Conditions support further strengthening, and I have a bad feeling that JTWC's forecast peak of 80kts could end up too low. Taiwan and China need to brace themselves again.

Image from CIMSS of the western Pacific- Tembin is located just east of the Philippines, looks like two more potential cyclones are brewing to the east as well:

irngms.GIF

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JTWC have had to raise their intensity forecast this evening. Tembin continues to strengthen quickly, and sustained winds are now at 55kts. Satellite imagery shows a developing eye so it won't be long at all before the storm is a typhoon. Tembin is still meandering slowly but should move north soon. JTWC are now forecasting a peak of 95kts.

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Tembin has developed a well defined eye and is now a 75kt cat 1 typhoon on SS scale. Tembin looks poised to continue to rapidly intensify, and JTWC now make Tembin a 115kt cat 4 before landfall in Taiwan.

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Tropical Storm Tembin upgraded to typhoon

2012/08/20

Taipei, Aug. 20 (CNA) Tropical Storm Tembin has been upgraded to a typhoon and is likely to turn northwest toward Taiwan on Tuesday, the Central Weather Bureau said Monday. If the typhoon turns as forecast, its eye may make landfall on Taiwan's east coast Thursday, according to the weather bureau.

As of 8 a.m., the eye of Tembin was located 620 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi, off the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving at a speed of 8 km per hour in a northerly direction. Tembin, the 14th storm of the Pacific typhoon season, is packing winds of 119 kph, with gusts of up to 155 kph, and has a radius of 150 km, the bureau said. The typhoon is likely to move toward Taiwan on a northwesterly track Tuesday and take a more westerly turn Wednesday, the bureau said.

A sea warning for Tembin is likely to be issued Tuesday morning and areas around Taiwan should be prepared for strong winds and heavy rain Wednesday to Friday, the bureau warned. Meanwhile, a tropical depression that formed near Guam on Sunday was still located 2,300 km from Taiwan as of 8 a.m. Monday and it may strengthen into a tropical storm over the next two days, the bureau said.

2012082000121.jpg

http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201208200012

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Tembin has continued to rapidly intensify. Intensity is now at 95kts, category 2. The well defined eye is surrounded by deep convection. Its amazing just how quickly Tembin has gone from tropical depression to verging on cat 3. Looks like Tembin is poised to make further large intensity gains through today.

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Another storm to keep an eye on.....HKO predicting this to slam into Taiwan as a 205kmh Super Typhoon.

Real bad news, but the mountains of Taiwan expected to pull it apart and re-emerge as a Cat1 Typhoon. Still would not like to be in Taiwan this coming week.

JTWC currently have this passing very close to Hong Kong as a borderline Typhoon/Tropical Storm....this season is crazy active for us this year.

The models seem in tight agreement, although the ECMWF 00z forecast has it running along the south china south, reaching Hainan Island then doiung a U-turn back towards us.....unlikely scenario i feel.

It is picking up speed now, although lots of uncertainty, i suspect if its slower than predicted, the ridging from the north could force it south of Taiwan and into the SCS.....becoming a major threat to the whole south china coast.

Def one to keep an eye on..

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Currently a Category 4 Typhoon now, with sustained wind speeds of 135mph

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Tembin has weakened a little today, and is now a 100kt cat 3. The observed weakening is due to an unexpected rise in shear. This shear will weaken Tembin a little further prior to landfall in Taiwan. Though Tembin is now expected to make landfall as a category 2 on the SS scale rather than a category 4, wind damage and severe flooding are still likely. Land interaction with Taiwan will further weaken Tembin before the storm makes it's second landfall, in southeastern China.

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Tembin's intensity has continued to decline, and is now down to 85kts, making the typhoon a cat 2 on the SS scale. Tembin has slowed down and is now moving westwards towards Taiwan. Although shear has eased, outflow is poor, so Tembin is likely to maintain intensity prior to landfall, which is expected to occur within the next 24hrs. Tembin will emerge into the Taiwan Strait as a low end typhoon.

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Tembin has weakened a little more to 80kts. The track forecast initially has remained the same. However, Tembin is now expected to interact with Typhoon Bolaven (currently well east of Taiwan). The result is currently being forecast as a track through Taiwan into the Taiwan Strait, follwed by a turn southwards and then eastwards back out over open water north of Luzon as Tembin gets dragged towards Typhoon Bolaven (which will be moving northwestwards to the northeast of Taiwan at this point. The track forecast is very uncertain and it will be very interesting to see what happens over the coming days.

wp1512.gif

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Tembin has re-strengthened considerably as it approaches Taiwan. Sustained winds have increased to 100kts, making the typhoon a cat 3 again. Further intensification is expected, and JTWC are forecasting Tembin to become stronger than it's first peak (115kts) and be a 120kt cat 4 as it makes landfall. So we are going to be dealing with a proper monster again slamming into Taiwan unfortunately.

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Tembin is a few hours away from landfall. Intensity is now 110kts, a high end cat 3. Tembin will cross southern Taiwan then slow and curve nearly back on itself. Tembin is then forecast to pass south Taiwan in an easterly direction. The track forecast detail is uncertain, but it certainly looks like Tembin will loop back out into open waters.

wp1512.gif

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Tembin has weakened to 60kts after trekking across the mountainous terrain of southern Taiwan. The storm is emerging off the coast now and should restrengthen into a typhoon as it moves slowly west-sourthwestwards along the southeastern side of a ridge over mainland China. This ridge is weakening (accounting for Tembin's slow motion), and steering influence is expected to shift towards a building ridge to the south. This, along with some weak interaction with Typhoon Bolaven, should force Tembin back eastwards and then northeastwards. Outflow from Typhoon Bolaven may affect Tembin in a few days time depending on the seperation distance between the two cyclones. This would obviously produce weakening.

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Tropical Storm Tembin Crossed Over Taiwan, Back Over Water

NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Tropical Storm Tembin after it made a quick track across southern Taiwan and re-emerged over the open waters of the Philippine Sea.

On Aug. 24 at 05:15 UTC (12:15 a.m. EDT), NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Tropical Storm Tembin and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument captured a visible image of the storm after it had crossed southern Taiwan and re-emerged into the waters of the Philippine Sea. After Tembin interacted with the land, the storm's eye was no longer visible. The storm has also become somewhat larger since crossing Taiwan and weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 145 nautical miles (170 miles/268.5 km) from the center making the storm 290 nautical miles (333.7 miles/537.1 km) in diameter.

http://www.nasa.gov/...012_Tembin.html

Warnings are still in effect in Taiwan on Aug. 24. Warning areas include: Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Chiayi City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Pingtung County, Hualien County, Taitung County, Hengchun Peninsula, Penghu County. In the Philippines, warnings are also still in effect. Public storm warning signal #2 is in effect for the Batanes group of islands, and Public storm warning signal #1 is in effect for the Calayan and Babuyan group of islands.

NASA's TRMM satellite saw Tembin on August 23, 2012 at 0943 UTC as it was approaching Taiwan as a typhoon. TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data showed that Tembin had rain bands containing intense thunderstorms dropping rain at over 100mm/hr west of a well defined eye. A 3-D view from TRMM PR reveals the vertical structure within Tembin. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

680399main_tembin_23_august_2012_0943_utc_trmm_radar.jpg

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It's all over the show!!!

201215W.png

201215W_7.png

Typhoon TEMBIN: Storm-centered zoom at 120 hours lead

Typhoon Tembin may return

20120825.135147_afp_tembinmayreturn.jpg

Typhoon Tembin landed, wreaked havoc on South Taiwan and left. Premier Sean Chen commissioned Lee Hong-yuan, interior minister and head of the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC), to organise a rescue team in the area. Related officials have also rushed to the site to further assist with disaster relief.

Typhoon Tembin made landfall in Mudan Township of Pingtung County at 5 a.m. yesterday. It then proceeded to head out toward the Taiwan Strait shortly after 7 a.m. Between midnight and 3 p.m., the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) recorded precipitation of 578 millimeters for Hengchunn, 592.5 millimeters for Checheng, and 546 millimeters for Kenting, breaking rainfall records set over the past hundred years.

"This is too incredible," officer of the Pingtung County Police Bureau Chen Bin-lung said.

The heavy rainfall flooded Hengchun Township, with water levels rising as high as a car in some areas. Hengchun Christian Hospital was drenched in muddy waters as nurses and workers rushed to evacuate medical equipment and patient records. The water rose up to 40 centimeters in the emergency room and blocked ambulance exits. According to hospital officials, all patients were safely evacuated.

A Hengchun Township representative said that most residents in low-lying areas were evacuated before the typhoon hit and others were relocated after they sought emergency assistance.

Up to 20,000 households in Pingtung suffered power failures, while telecommunication disruptions were also reported in the region.

In related news, southern Hualien experienced sudden, tumultuous rainfall around noon, though the weather during the morning was relatively calm. Rivers overflowed, engulfing farmlands, while massive amounts of mud and rock crippled roads.

In response to concerns over pomelo farmlands, Hualien Magistrate Fu Kun-qi stated that farmlands only lost 1-2 per cent of their fruit.

A watermelon farm located in Shoufeng Village endured harsh damage from the rain, leaving only 20 per cent of the fruit unspoiled.

The CWB has said that there is an increased chance that Tembin may turn back to Taiwan after moving toward the Taiwan Strait. The storm might be affected by another typhoon, Bolaven, located off the East Coast of Taiwan, the bureau said.

Cheng Ming-dean, chief meteorologist of the CWB, said that Typhoon Tembin might move back to the east of Taiwan. As of 10:15 p.m., the centre of Tembin was located at 90 kilometers southeast of Kaohsiung, moving at a speed of 8 kilometers per hour in a west-southwesterly direction. "This will prolong the impact of Tembin on Taiwan. The typhoon might stay until next Thursday," he said.

Officials urged residents in the southern regions of Taiwan, including Taitung, Pingtung, Hualien and Kaohsiung, to take precautionary measures against heavy rainfall.

Since the typhoon is moving at such a slow pace, while another looms just outside of Taiwan, continuous rainfall could cause serious damage to Southern Taiwan, said CWB official Chen Yi-liang.

As of press time, the CWB has not lifted land warnings in Nantou, Hualien, Taitung, regions south of Yunlin and outlying islands.

http://www.asiaone.c...825-367468.html

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Nice video there Coast, showing the fury of Tembin.

Tembin has re-strengthened to 75kts, and is now a typhoon again. As Coast's post describes, Tembin isn't done with Taiwan yet. The looping motion which has been forecast for a while now looks to bring Tembin back to eastern Taiwan for round 2. The situation really looks quite dire, especially as Taiwan has already been quite heavily impacted by typhoons already this year (Typhoon Saola in particular).

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Tembin temporarily reintensified to 100kts but has weakened to 80kts as the typhoon begins to ineract with Taiwan for the second time. Track forecast remains the same, with a second landfall in Taiwan, followed by a northward track into Shanghai, China.

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Land interaction and increased shear has caused Tembin to lose typhoon status this evening with sustained winds falling to 55kts. Convection is limited to the southern quadrant of the LLC as the northern quadrant interacts with the south coast of Taiwan. Track forecast has remained similar with Tembin forecast to pay a second visit to Taiwan's east coast followed by a northward turn as ridging builds to the east. The track forecast after Taiwan has shifted a little to the east, meaning Tembin will pass Shanghai, China, and go on to follow Typhoon Bolaven and make landfall on the west coast of North Korea. This is still uncertain as it is still not entirely clear how strong the ridge to the east of China will remain as Bolaven passes through.

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Tembin now has sustained winds of 50kts. The storm is passing Taiwan and moving north-northeastwards towards South Korea. Moderate shear and then cooler along track sea temps will further weaken Tembin prior to landfall.

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Tembin is making landfall in South Korea as a 35kt tropical storm. If the storms survives the passage over land it will become extratropical north of Japan.

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