Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

[Phantom2]

Nothing thundery in that lot that just passed over me ..waiting now for the next pulse to the Southwest !

[Aaron]

It sure is very humid here, currently 22.0c with a dew point of 18.0c and relative humidity of 78%.

[paul m]

Think the cloud cover will hinder our chances up here

[Carl46Wrexham]

Rain area has weakened markedly. Not sure an amber warning is necessary anymore. Nor a yellow one come to that. Just looks like a poxy bog standard wet (but not dramatically so) day for us in the west............unless I'm missing something?

Edited August 17, 2012 by Carl46Wrexham

[Methuselah]

Isn't Abertawe having a pile of rain,a and thunder this arvo?

[ardsar]

Chris Fawkes on the BBC one O clock news mentioned Thunderstorms over South West England & Wales this afternoon, then later into the Midlands today???

There have been a few sferics off the cornwall coast within the last 2hrs, however these have died off for the time being.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Rain area has weakened markedly. Not sure an amber warning is necessary anymore. Nor a yellow one come to that. Just looks like a poxy bog standard wet (but not dramatically so) day for us in the west............unless I'm missing something?

Yes, as I said earlier, mentions of 70mm surprised me slightly

[Darren Bown]

Is this a warm front moving through today, perhaps the main area of concern is behind this area of rain as Meto are saying N England would be affected this evening?

Edit: from reading over estofex' forecast, they say some clearing may occur after the warm front moves NE to allow the warm sector and frontal boundary to do their stuff. Correct me if I've read it totally wrong though.

Edited August 17, 2012 by Darren Bown

[simon29]

is that a squall line developing north of preston

[Aaron]

According to the Met, the heavy rain is not supposed to arrive here until 7pm.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Yes, as I said earlier, mentions of 70mm surprised me slightly

Light rain/drizzle at the moment....why the amber warning? I have an image in my mind of whoever issued the warning sitting on the toilet rocking slowly back and forth, mumbling incoherently, whilst his colleagues mill around growling "which muppet issued that warning?...we're looking right prats at the minute!"

Edited August 17, 2012 by Carl46Wrexham

[A.J]

Rain area has weakened markedly. Not sure an amber warning is necessary anymore. Nor a yellow one come to that. Just looks like a poxy bog standard wet (but not dramatically so) day for us in the west............unless I'm missing something?

Yes, as I said earlier, mentions of 70mm surprised me slightly

The warnings have been in force, not just from the met-office, but NetWeather, Estofex and other meteorological/media outlets because there is a risk of severe weather because of atmospheric parameters in place...please take note of the word 'risk', so I think thinly veiled criticism is not really warranted chaps

[Snowynorth]

Is this a warm front moving through today, perhaps the main area of concern is behind this area of rain as Meto are saying N England would be affected this evening?

Edit: from reading over estofex' forecast, they say some clearing may occur after the warm front moves NE to allow the warm sector and frontal boundary to do their stuff. Correct me if I've read it totally wrong though.

The warm front has already passed and we are in the warm sector at present in a very big moisture filled area. The way i see it is a cold front is approaching later to be the menace. This cold front drops south overnight and decays and becomes a warm front that pushes back north on sat.

[Snowynorth]

Light rain/drizzle at the moment....why the amber warning? I have an image in my mind of whoever issued the warning sitting on the toilet rocking slowly back and forth, mumbling incoherently, whilst his colleagues mill around growling "which muppet issued that warning?...we're looking right prats at the minute!"

Train of showers flying in from the south west now this is the area of interest not the rain we have just had that was just warm frontal precip.

[Mapantz]

The front trails all the way past Spain and Portugal, and it will continue to pulse-up all through the the rest of today and in to tomorrow. Rain totals will become significant in to tomorrow, so i think the warnings are perfectly justified.

Edited August 17, 2012 by Mapantz

[Cheshire Freeze]

The warnings have been in force, not just from the met-office, but NetWeather, Estofex and other meteorological/media outlets because there is a risk of severe weather because of atmospheric parameters in place...please take note of the word 'risk', so I think thinly veiled criticism is not really warranted chaps

I understand the 'risk' element AJ and have not criticised anyone for anything; I was just shocked at such high totals being banded about after I viewed the models this morning and assumed it would be a bust.

[A.J]

I understand the 'risk' element AJ and have not criticised anyone for anything; I was just shocked at such high totals being banded about after I viewed the models this morning and assumed it would be a bust.

It seems that others don't unfortunately and are too quick to criticize, it's a long running issue on these boards sadly..

Anyhoos, eyes down to the south west to see what develops

[toggerob]

Not forgetting in the short-term that we are just in the beginning of this 48hr cycle of 'pulses' moving up from the Bay of Biscay with even more developing across Wales as instability combined with dinural heating creates enough CAPE to set off pulse-cells. I'm looking more towards where the breaks in the front are, as this will be the area the storms break out in.

[Aaron]

Sun shining here at the moment, so that might help things if frequent sunny spells develop.

Currently 19.9c with a dew point of 18.6c and RH of 93%..

Edited August 17, 2012 by Aaron

[Snowynorth]

Estofex are a free service at end of day and i couldn't do what they do for free im certain of that. Everybody has different takes on weather forecasting and i take their views on board when i look into forecasting. The weather is fickle we all know that and no amount of money/computers can forecast certain events. Just ask a certain weather man, ( sorry to mention it ) but we are getting better. Nature just has a habit of reminding us that we are not in charge!!! Anyway bring on the storms im waiting very patiently so pls come my way!!!!

[Darren Bown]

There's currently a ribbon of intense rain within that front across N Lancashire that's popped up recently. I do think something may develop. Metoffice have been quite good with warnings recently.

[paul m]

Sun shining here at the moment, so that might help things if frequent sunny spells develop.

Currently 19.9c with a dew point of 18.6c and RH of 93%..

Where abouts? Been dull all day in this area

[simon29]

There's currently a ribbon of intense rain within that front across N Lancashire that's popped up recently. I do think something may develop. Metoffice have been quite good with warnings recently.

It looks like a squall line correct me if im wrong

[CaptainHappy]

A few large spots of rain falling on the south coast here, coming from that new little line that has popped up from nowhere in the Channel in the last few hours. Quite a mixed looking sky with Ac Cast bubbling up over a large portion of the sky

[Snowynorth]

It looks like a squall line correct me if im wrong

To be honest i think its just a train of heavy showers, a squall usualy has a very sharp edge to them on radar where as this has a messy look to it!!!!