Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 16th August 2012>

[legritter]

There are meteorological reasons why certain shower activity would increase over the North sea in a West to East showery airstream, but I want to point out the fact that lets take showers forming in an unstable westerly airstream. First of all the shower storms develop and form in the West, then travel inland intensifying for a time then decaying. Then new ones form, but by the time they are NEAR maturity they exit our East coast, but still with time left for a bit more maturing to take place and eventually these die out. They then dissapear off radar and of course in ideal synoptics, a new source of energy is found.

Also in a showery West to East situation pressure is usually slightly higher over the continent so perhaps more sun to help convection. I have certainly NOT covered every reason and I expect meteorologicaly the reasons could make a small book. As for today not a lot happening, but Saturday could be a good day for some action

Regards for now, legritter

[legritter]

attention gang ,something firing up now over bridgwater area ,very dark sky ,we have some v large spots here now .clouds moving very slowly ,nothing showing on radar so probably only just erupting .could just be a very local event , JUST LOOKED ON RADAR we have an area of showers breaking out possibly moving north east .best of luck all for fri/sat could be some good action for some .regards legritter ,

[AWD]

Embedded thunderstorms with elevated lightning possible tomorrow with the rain band that swings east, according to Ian Fergusson!

[AWD]

Having an admittedly, very quick scroll through the models, there is some support for this too!

Some humid air getting thrown into the mix from the south

GFS showing some signs around western facing coasts

Perhaps someone who knows a little more what they are talking about could enlighten us?

Saturday still looking good for parts of England and Wales too

[Eskimo]

Explosive over France at the moment

[AWD]

There is a moderate Storm Forecast from UKASF but i think they are having problems with their website as I can't see it/read it!

[Eskimo]

There is a moderate Storm Forecast from UKASF but i think they are having problems with their website as I can't see it/read it!

Hit Ctrl + F5, moderate warning is for Southern Ireland.

[Nick F]

Some reasonable looking CAPE values indicated by GFS in moistening air just ahead/along occluding cold front moving N and E across southern Britain tomorrow PM. So could be some emdedded storms across SW England and Wales early afternoon, then further east across southern counties of England into the evening.

Fairly strong low-level shear indicated (14 m/s) as winds back ahead of front - so potential for rotating updrafts and perhaps a tornado where LCLs are lower (600m) near the surface frontal boundary.