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Isolated Frost

Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

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I'd be able to take this post a lot more seriously if everything wasn't in capital letters, I need an Asprin now! Any chance when you dig out that information you could send me a PM about it? Things like this interest me greatly!

Back on topic! Is that snow I see in Northern Scandi/Finland?

sorry about capital letters but fairly new to this typing game .i get carried away now and again .anyhow whilst i was a fellow of the ROYAL met society i had access to many interesting sci papers .i will dig these out and put together a post regarding very cold winters with a westerly based wind bringing hvy lake effect snow .i have recently come back from canada and me and my wife stayed near the shores of lake Huron for a while ,we met a local vicar 96 yrs of age who came originally from Newfoundland who told us of how quite often they can get very hvy falls of snow off the lakes ,whilst not far away almost nill .just a quicky regarding this winter ,we seem to have lost those winters that we got between say late 1980s and say 2006 when we only got mild wet and very windy weather to now atleast one or two descent wintery spells . i think we are still in this cycle so i personally think this winter could produce a good snowy spell . last winter the azores high was on one ,perhaps this winter could be opposite .and dont forget although we had a severe december the year before last we have not had a long cold snowy winter for quite a while .so bring on the snow ,its certainly the magical ingredient ,perhaps it is a HARSH WINTER COMING ,cheers legritter

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With the combination of low solar activity, the record decline of Arctic sea ice and the persistence of cool, unsettled weather this year due to the Jet Stream going south and the dominance of the Greenland High, I think we're in with a very good shot of a cold winter, or at least some significant cold, snowy spells.

That said, as much as I love cold and snow, if the theory of melting ice altering the Gulf Stream is proven I wouldn't want to cheer on the destruction of Arctic Ice just to ensure our supply of snow. I hope I'm not alone there.

Edited by Jackfrost

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With the combination of low solar activity, the record decline of Arctic sea ice and the persistence of cool, unsettled weather this year due to the Jet Stream going south and the dominance of the Greenland High, I think we're in with a very good shot of a cold winter, or at least some significant cold, snowy spells.

That said, as much as I love cold and snow, if the theory of melting ice altering the Gulf Stream is proven I wouldn't want to cheer on the destruction of Arctic Ice just to ensure our supply of snow. I hope I'm not alone there.

Anything can happen this winter really so you can't rule out the chances of a pretty cold or very mild winter. There are factors other than low solar activity that need to align favourably at the right time and it'll be interesting to see what effect the record low of sea ice in the arctic on the conditions in the NH over the coming months and beyond. The Greenland high has been a feature again this year and who knows whether this theme of northern blocking could continue through the autumn or winter. I personally expect a gradual decline in the presence of northern blocking during the autumn. Anyway, winter in the UK is still a long way away and before we start getting a little too far ahead of ourselves, first and foremost it's worth focusing on the snow and ice developing during the next couple of months and to enjoy the autumn first and in doing so we'll probably have a better clue about the coming winter after seeing the nature of snow cover in the NH this season and the weather patterns of the autumn too. I'm looking forward to it and it should be fun!

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Here is today's pic - tried to find last year's chart as a comparison but wasn't successful...can anyone else help with that?+

Edit...found it on last years thread and added below

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by lottiekent

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i think we are still in this cycle so i personally think this winter could produce a good snowy spell . last winter the azores high was on one ,perhaps this winter could be opposite .and dont forget although we had a severe december the year before last we have not had a long cold snowy winter for quite a while .so bring on the snow ,its certainly the magical ingredient ,perhaps it is a HARSH WINTER COMING ,cheers legritter

'we have not had a long cold snowy winter for quite a while' A valid point I think.

If we are still in the cold cycle maybe we are over due for a winter 1947 1963 style as they were a very long time ago. The last three posters have been talking a lot of sense cheers!

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The snow is just below the arctic circle and has some mountains west of it. will be interesting to see if it gets snuffed out or makes it here! post-15601-0-11953600-1345849083_thumb.j

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remove if need's be mods and it's in the wrong thread. it's in ref to backtrack's point about the gulfstream.

This would be the effect in u.k and nw europ's weather if the North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream was to shut down.

North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream)

The Gulf Stream is the most important ocean-current system in the northern hemisphere, which stretches from

Florida

to north-western Europe. It incorporates several currents: the Florida current, the Gulf Stream itself, and an eastern extension, the North Atlantic Drift.

The Florida Current is fast, deep, and narrow, but after passing

Cape Hatteras

the Gulf Stream becomes less effective at depth and develops a series of large meanders which form, detach, and re-form in a complicated manner. After

passing the Grand Banks (off Newfoundland), the flow forms the diffuse, shallow, broad slow-moving North Atlantic Drift.

The relatively warm waters of the North Atlantic Drift are responsible for moderating the climate of western Europe, so that winters are less cold than

would otherwise be expected at its latitude. Without the warm North Atlantic Drift, the UK and other places in Europe would be as cold as Canada, at the

same latitude. For example, without this steady stream of warmth the British Isles winters are estimated to be more than 5 °C cooler, bringing the

average December temperature in London

to about 2°C.

Within the

Gulf of Mexico,

the Gulf Stream is very narrow, only 50 miles wide, and travels very fast at 3 mph, carrying water at about 25°C. The North Atlantic Drift widens considerably

to several hundred miles, slows to less than 1 mph and splits into several sub-currents. Off the British Isles it splits into two branches, one going south

(the Canary Current) and the other going north along the coast of W and N Europe, where it exerts considerable influence upon the climate as far as northwestern

Europe. For example, the Drift is particularly important because it keeps many Norwegian ports free of ice throughout the year.

The two main driving forces behind it are the prevailing southwesterly trade winds and the circulation of the water far below the oceans surface, the North

Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) circulation. Water in the north Atlantic sinks because it is dense. Density of water is increased by both salinity and temperature

- the colder and saltier the water is the denser it is. This deep water flows to the Gulf of Mexico until it warms enough to resurface and flow back north

as the Gulf Stream.

Some 11,000 years ago the NADW shut down in response to subtle shifts in global climate. This slowed and diverted the course of the Gulf Stream to such

an extent that the regional climate of the Northeast Atlantic became considerably cooler. As a result Northwestern Europe dropped back to ice age conditions

within tens of years. It is now suspected that global warming may trigger a shutdown in the NADW, and a slowing or diversion of the Gulf Stream, which

would ironically lead to colder climates throughout the UK and Northwest Europe.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/North-Atlantic-Drift-Gulf-Stream.htm

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In response to Syed.. completely makes sense. It was the basis for which the movie Day after tomorrow was made. Only Hollywood took it to extremes as usual.

Does anyone know if the NADW is being affected by record ice melt over the last few years or is it business as usual so far??

Edited by MadSnowboarder

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remove if need's be mods and it's in the wrong thread. it's in ref to backtrack's point about the gulfstream.

This would be the effect in u.k and nw europ's weather if the North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream was to shut down.

North Atlantic Drift (Gulf Stream)

The Gulf Stream is the most important ocean-current system in the northern hemisphere, which stretches from

Florida

to north-western Europe. It incorporates several currents: the Florida current, the Gulf Stream itself, and an eastern extension, the North Atlantic Drift.

The Florida Current is fast, deep, and narrow, but after passing

Cape Hatteras

the Gulf Stream becomes less effective at depth and develops a series of large meanders which form, detach, and re-form in a complicated manner. After

passing the Grand Banks (off Newfoundland), the flow forms the diffuse, shallow, broad slow-moving North Atlantic Drift.

The relatively warm waters of the North Atlantic Drift are responsible for moderating the climate of western Europe, so that winters are less cold than

would otherwise be expected at its latitude. Without the warm North Atlantic Drift, the UK and other places in Europe would be as cold as Canada, at the

same latitude. For example, without this steady stream of warmth the British Isles winters are estimated to be more than 5 °C cooler, bringing the

average December temperature in London

to about 2°C.

Within the

Gulf of Mexico,

the Gulf Stream is very narrow, only 50 miles wide, and travels very fast at 3 mph, carrying water at about 25°C. The North Atlantic Drift widens considerably

to several hundred miles, slows to less than 1 mph and splits into several sub-currents. Off the British Isles it splits into two branches, one going south

(the Canary Current) and the other going north along the coast of W and N Europe, where it exerts considerable influence upon the climate as far as northwestern

Europe. For example, the Drift is particularly important because it keeps many Norwegian ports free of ice throughout the year.

The two main driving forces behind it are the prevailing southwesterly trade winds and the circulation of the water far below the oceans surface, the North

Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) circulation. Water in the north Atlantic sinks because it is dense. Density of water is increased by both salinity and temperature

- the colder and saltier the water is the denser it is. This deep water flows to the Gulf of Mexico until it warms enough to resurface and flow back north

as the Gulf Stream.

Some 11,000 years ago the NADW shut down in response to subtle shifts in global climate. This slowed and diverted the course of the Gulf Stream to such

an extent that the regional climate of the Northeast Atlantic became considerably cooler. As a result Northwestern Europe dropped back to ice age conditions

within tens of years. It is now suspected that global warming may trigger a shutdown in the NADW, and a slowing or diversion of the Gulf Stream, which

would ironically lead to colder climates throughout the UK and Northwest Europe.

http://www.weatheron...Gulf-Stream.htm

It's a hypothesis that can't be ruled out but I'd say that the gulf stream won't slow down as some have said/believed and it's worth focusing on the actual weather conditions and synoptics across the NH for searching for signs about winter weather. But it is worth following what impact the arctic sea ice melt could have on the sea or even more interestingly if it could have a say in the weather conditions in the NH over the coming months. There really are so many interesting individual factors that [combine to] influence the weather.

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I know that this thread is primarily looking at the NH snowcover for pointers to the following winter but recent research states that it may have as much of an impact on our summers - ie less snow causes the meanderings of the jetstream to favour a mean trough close to/over the UK. The following graph seems to correlate well with poor summers since 2007 but not so well with winter as the recent cold ones have occurred during a well depleted NH snowcover anomaly.

http://neven1.typepa...175af3b3970c-pi

Edited by Gael_Force

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i know im off topic but in reference to my post regarding polar bears in ireland during past history as a result of bears arriving on ice flows etc ,it could be a case that polar bears originate from the EMERALD ISLE ,TYPE IN POLAR BEARS IN IRELAND ON GOOGLE ,NO IM NOT ON AN EARLY VODKA ONLY COFFEE ,STOPED FOR A BREAK AS HEAVENS JUST OPENED ,CATCH YOU ALL UP LATER ,CHEERS

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Interesting to note the bbc mentioned the prospects of record low sea ice cover in the coming days.. certainly something to watch. The immediate outlook does show a marked cooling though over the poles, with lower heights as opposed to high pressure which could deliver some decent snowfalls as we start September and help to bring SST's down.

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When does the refreeze typically start??

Around the second week of September on average, but can vary from late August to late September.

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Hi guys :) Why is it that IMS is still showing a decent sized area of seperate ice that the others aren't? :)

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Hi guys Posted Image Why is it that IMS is still showing a decent sized area of seperate ice that the others aren't? Posted Image

As far as I know, IMS data is used in shipping, and so they use different and more varied techniques to other groups and may be a little over-cautious, sometimes over-estimating the amount of ice compared to other monitoring agencies, so as to avoid any accidents. It may actually be more accurate, though that is debatable.

Just remember, the the areas shaded in as sea ice, only represent 15% or more actual sea ice on the surface.

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As far as I know, IMS data is used in shipping, and so they use different and more varied techniques to other groups and may be a little over-cautious, sometimes over-estimating the amount of ice compared to other monitoring agencies, so as to avoid any accidents. It may actually be more accurate, though that is debatable.

Just remember, the the areas shaded in as sea ice, only represent 15% or more actual sea ice on the surface.

Thanks for replying BFTV Posted Image Nobody can deny we are having an alarming year this summer as regard to ice Posted Image Just wish i was qualified enough to understand it fully :)

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Thanks for replying BFTV Posted Image Nobody can deny we are having an alarming year this summer as regard to ice Posted Image Just wish i was qualified enough to understand it fully Posted Image

You're welcome!

I don't think anybody is qualified enough to fully understand the goings on in the Arctic and the implications it may have. We're all still learningPosted Image

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Around the second week of September on average, but can vary from late August to late September.

From mid to late September the huge loss of day light hours must put a limit to the lateness of the refreeze I guess. http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com/

My ramblings if you folks are interested

I see September is the tiping point for negative temps at 76deg N So the mini heatwave of 6deg C for 27/8/12 (record Aug is 17.1) is not unexpected (no wonder the snow melted at longyearbyen) http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

The coldest September temp is -1.7C so more of the white stuff for the fans of it there and above the Bering sea before too long me and my snow ramp thinks. Posted Image

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i find this part of the forum very interesting .as regards any body being qualified enough to understand Ice melt i think its a case of its a fairly new science and a lot more money and research needs to be undertaken . scientific measurements ,temp of sea areas at the surface of the sea and at different depths need to be logged at all times of the year at same times etc . its a shame that we do not have records going back ages but instruments have only been around for a very tiny fraction of the time that ice as been present .but as we all know its such a complicated set up that even the top scientists can only make an educated quess ,and its only a quess ,but i do feel that sea ice melt is seriouse whether its manmade or just a part of a cycle ,so we need to keep on top of it or we could all get caught out . if there is anybody interested i look at a web cam on baffin island during autumn /winter ,go on google type in KIMMIRUT weather cam ,it does not update that regular but you can get a feel of the place .its 62 Degs 51 north and temp today aprox 5c .iv seen the odd husky about .cheers Posted Image

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I read in on the bbc news website a few days ago about Ice melt in the Antarctic http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19348427

It points out that due to the earths wobble, there are periods were ice melt is considerably greater than normal, before returning to normal. It also points out that the increase in temperatures around the globe have gone up faster than in past melts. So I guess we can make of it what we will. Are we humans accelerating the effect of ice melt? Or Not? Will greater ice melt cause the NADW to or gulf stream to "shut down" thereby dragging us back into an ice age? Or have we increased global temperatures to far for that to happen? And will the sun have an influence? Will it go into hibernation mode in the next few years?

So many ifs and what ifs. Too many for me to understand lol. What if.... The NADW and gulf stream did "shut down" And the sun went into Hibernation (Maunder minimum mode)????Posted Image

Edited by MadSnowboarder

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Today's offering

post-12276-0-06935800-1345974947_thumb.g

Apart from the mini-dinosaur of ice to NE Siberia, nothing of note, to note.

Well here's the latest anomaly image and as we can see, there are a very few more negative than positive atm.

It doesn't mean alot at this stage though.

Ty IF for keeping up with the updates :)

Posted Image

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