Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I do love this far ahead meteorology!

your noa, is that the ark noah, or noaa or nao?

ment (meant) negative nao 

Edited July 31, 2013 by LincolnSnowstorm

[John Badrick]

wow look at this recovery going into normal territory

[cooling climate]

20130801.png wow look at this recovery going into normal territory

 

Yes 2013 way behind 2012 and other recent years not bad especially on the back so to speak

of a record melt last year therefore having so much young first year ice in the Arctic.

It has though been a very cool summer up there especially in the high Arctic. In fact looking back

through the archived northern hemisphere 850 charts you have to go back a considerable way

to find similar 850 temperatures at the end of July beginning of August. Lol I actually got bored

and gave up.

This could really be a very short melt season in the high Arctic if the NWP models are correct

and if so then repeat of last year or 2011 and 2007 will be extremely unlikely.

It will be interesting to see if cool summer makes any headlines when the season is over I

would not hold my breath though.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Yes 2013 way behind 2012 and other recent years not bad especially on the back so to speak

of a record melt last year therefore having so much young first year ice in the Arctic.

It has though been a very cool summer up there especially in the high Arctic. In fact looking back

through the archived northern hemisphere 850 charts you have to go back a considerable way

to find similar 850 temperatures at the end of July beginning of August. Lol I actually got bored

and gave up.

This could really be a very short melt season in the high Arctic if the NWP models are correct

and if so then repeat of last year or 2011 and 2007 will be extremely unlikely.

It will be interesting to see if cool summer makes any headlines when the season is over I

would not hold my breath though.

Throwing out a quick question to cc or anybody ..having Noted the latest trend of sea ice extent ,I also notice that 2010 had a flatter line in  the graph about this time  in summer, so is there any trend to winters that are colder following on from having this feature (me asks hopefully)

Edited August 1, 2013 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Relativistic]

Throwing out a quick question to cc or anybody ..having Noted the latest trend of sea ice extent ,I also notice that 2010 had a flatter line in the graph about this time in summer, so is there any trend to winters that are colder following on from having this feature (me asks hopefully)

I don't know the answer to this but I hope it brings another December 2010!

[cooling climate]

Over the next few days 850 temps in the high Arctic are forecast to drop to

-12c which for the end of the first week of August is very cold to say the least

possibly even exceptionally so. Even to those that have been following this

remarkable summer or lack of it in the high Arctic this depth of cold is still a

big surprise.

[Isolated Frost]

Snow. Let's analyse snow.

July snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (Eurasia)

2006: 3.50km2 (0.35km2)

2007: 3.02km2 (0.30km2)

2008: 2.52km2 (0.20km2)

2009: 2.68km2 (0.16km2)

2010: 2.58km2 (0.17km2)

2011: 2.53km2 (0.16km2)

2012: 2.31km2 (0.14km2)

January snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (6 months difference) Eurasia (6 months difference)

2007: 44.87km2 (+41.37km2) 27.09km2 (+26.74km2)

2008: 49.78km2 (+46.76km2) 31.88km2 (+31.58km2)

2009: 47.14km2 (+44.62km2) 29.36km2 (+29.16km2)

2010: 48.27km2 (+45.69km2) 30.07km2 (+29.91km2)

2011: 48.47km2 (+45.89km2) 30.11km2 (+29.94km2)

2012: 46.90km2 (+44.37km2) 30.32km2 (+30.16km2)

Not what I quite expected, 2007-2008 was very good. The general trend is for Summers to be more snow-less and ice-less, whilst Winters stay similar to the historic average, even surging above at times.

So, after all of that, I expect snow levels to be very similar across the NH this Autumn and WInter, and it'll be interesting to see how the Ice fares. If it surges quicker than usual, then I'd expect a 2008-2009 esque winter, so colder than average, but if it doesn't, more like 2007-2008 is possible.

I'm happy enough with that prediction, I would say it was relatively (RELATIVELY!!) similar to 2008-2009, so I'll have another go at this now.

[Isolated Frost]

January snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (6 months difference) Eurasia (6 months difference)

2007: 44.87km2 (+41.37km2) 27.09km2 (+26.74km2)
2008: 49.78km2 (+46.76km2) 31.88km2 (+31.58km2)
2009: 47.14km2 (+44.62km2) 29.36km2 (+29.16km2)
2010: 48.27km2 (+45.69km2) 30.07km2 (+29.91km2)
2011: 48.47km2 (+45.89km2) 30.11km2 (+29.94km2)
2012: 46.90km2 (+44.37km2) 30.32km2 (+30.16km2)

2013: 48.64km2 (+46.33km2) 30.78km2 (+30.64km2)

 

I was very pleased with that effort in fact, very similar amounts to the 2007-08, and with a year lag that is pretty promising.

I'd rate the last few winters in this order; 2009-10, 2010-11, 2008-09, 2012-13, 2007-08, 2011-12, 2006-07

The best July-Jan eurasia growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2011-12, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2006-07

The best July-Jan NH growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2011-12, 2006-07

I'm going to try and make a correlation using composites and data, and will report what I can find on here, but I think the general picture is; sharp growths can spur on a 3-4 year rise in northern blocking, whilst low growths would be expected thereafter- exceptionally low growths (such as 2006-07) may well indicate that the beginning of a new northern blocking cycle is on its way within 3 years... we're looking at a rather high snow total for June... so perhaps 2015 will herald the return of the deep cold?

[cooling climate]

Over the next few days 850 temps in the high Arctic are forecast to drop to

-12c which for the end of the first week of August is very cold to say the least

possibly even exceptionally so. Even to those that have been following this

remarkable summer or lack of it in the high Arctic this depth of cold is still a

big surprise.

 

The storm bringing the cloud,snow and very low temperatures as mentioned

above in a earlier post looks (according to the 12z GFS run today) like

pre-empting a very early start to the very long bitterly cold Arctic winter.

The temperatures if the model run is anywhere near correct stay very low

throughout the whole of the run across much of the Arctic basin making it

one of the coldest and shortest melt seasons across the high Arctic for a

very long time.Also one of the eariest starts to the Arctic winter for some

consideable time.

[sebastiaan1973]

January snow totals, Northern Hemisphere (6 months difference) Eurasia (6 months difference)

2007: 44.87km2 (+41.37km2) 27.09km2 (+26.74km2)

2008: 49.78km2 (+46.76km2) 31.88km2 (+31.58km2)

2009: 47.14km2 (+44.62km2) 29.36km2 (+29.16km2)

2010: 48.27km2 (+45.69km2) 30.07km2 (+29.91km2)

2011: 48.47km2 (+45.89km2) 30.11km2 (+29.94km2)

2012: 46.90km2 (+44.37km2) 30.32km2 (+30.16km2)

2013: 48.64km2 (+46.33km2) 30.78km2 (+30.64km2)

 

I was very pleased with that effort in fact, very similar amounts to the 2007-08, and with a year lag that is pretty promising.

I'd rate the last few winters in this order; 2009-10, 2010-11, 2008-09, 2012-13, 2007-08, 2011-12, 2006-07

The best July-Jan eurasia growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2011-12, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2006-07

The best July-Jan NH growths have been; 2007-08, 2012-13, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2008-09, 2011-12, 2006-07

I'm going to try and make a correlation using composites and data, and will report what I can find on here, but I think the general picture is; sharp growths can spur on a 3-4 year rise in northern blocking, whilst low growths would be expected thereafter- exceptionally low growths (such as 2006-07) may well indicate that the beginning of a new northern blocking cycle is on its way within 3 years... we're looking at a rather high snow total for June... so perhaps 2015 will herald the return of the deep cold?

 

More important than the july-january grow is the expansion in october. According to research by Cohen (snow advance index)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Using the NSIDC sea ice extent as an indicator, the earliest daily minimum occurred in 1987, on September 2nd, and the latest occurred in 2005, on September 22nd.

The average day for the minimum is day 256, which is September 13th usually, but September 12th on a leap year.

2011 was the most recent year to have an early minimum, occurring on September 7th.

 

Here's a graph of the day of the year that the daily sea ice extent minimum has occurred since 1979

 

[Harve]

More important than the july-january grow is the expansion in october. According to research by Cohen (snow advance index)

Which would in turn suggest that any gains in August and September would reduce the scope for October expansion (since some is already in place) and therefore be a bad thing for a cold winter?

I'm reluctant to say a cold August or September means anything at all.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Harve

[BornFromTheVoid]

Has this not been posted?

 

Rutgers have released the July stats, which show July 2013 as having the 8th lowest snow cover extent on record (May and June were both 3rd lowest). http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

 

This is a slight improvement on recent years, but seems largely due to the reduced melt on Greenland and slightly more snow around north east Canada.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2013&ui_month=7&ui_set=2

 

[gottolovethisweather]

More important than the july-january grow is the expansion in october. According to research by Cohen (snow advance index)

 

Indeed sebastiaan, but I certainly welcome IFs thoughts and others for matter. Especially considering I don't have anything to add myself but will be following the new thread once its opened up, in turn hoping to further knowledge in the absence of GP.

[Isolated Frost]

AUGUST-SEPTEMBER / SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER / OCTOBER-NOVEMBER / NOVEMBER-DECEMBER / DECEMBER-JANUARY (increases in square km)

(0.13 BASE) 2007-08: 0.54 / 7.40 / 11.67 / 6.50 / 5.64

(0.12 BASE) 2008-09: 0.99 / 7.54 / 10.11 / 7.16 / 3.44

(0.13 BASE) 2009-10: 0.50 / 10.66 / 11.05 / 5.38 / 2.35

(0.13 BASE) 2010-11: 1.46 / 9.03 / 9.51 / 7.91 / 2.07

(0.10 BASE) 2011-12: 1.39 / 7.80 / 13.20 / 4.15 / 3.68

(0.12 BASE) 2012-13: 0.94 / 10.05 / 10.92 / 7.03 / 1.72

 

What I see from this is that the largest August-September rise was 2010 (which led to Nov/Dec 10) and the smallest August-September rise was 2007 (which led to a pretty poor early winter).

The highest September-October rise was in 2009 (which led to a superb Dec/Jan/Feb 09-10) and the smallest was 2007 (which preceding the poor winter).

The highest October-November rise was 2007 (which led to the rather incredible shift in synoptics, for me beginning in April 2008, though the lag effect is more profound here, and the rise more elaborate due to awful conditions between August-October) and the smallest was 2010 (of which there was a rather poor late Jan/Feb/Mar in 2011 for cold synoptics)

The highest thereafter don't really make much significant impact as Spring synoptics and teleconnections certainly react differently, but this discovery really was fascinating and held up EXTREMELY well, as seen below, where I decided to go on a 2 month rolling 'rise log'.

2007-08: AUG-OCT 7.94 / SEP-NOV 19.07 / OCT-DEC 18.17 / NOV-JAN 12.14

2008-09: AUG-OCT 8.53 / SEP-NOV 17.65 / OCT-DEC 17.27 / NOV-JAN 10.60

2009-10: AUG-OCT 11.16 / SEP-NOV 21.71 / OCT-DEC 16.43 / NOV-JAN 7.73

2010-11: AUG-OCT 10.49 / SEP-NOV 18.54 / OCT-DEC 17.42 / NOV-JAN 9.98

2011-12: AUG-OCT 9.19 / SEP-NOV 21.00 / OCT-DEC 17.35 / NOV-JAN 7.83

2012-13: AUG-OCT 10.99 / SEP-NOV 20.97 / OCT-DEC 17.95 / NOV-JAN 8.75

 

The highest August-October (general 3 month lag for synoptic=November-January) rise was 2009, followed by 2012 and then 2010. They all had pretty good Nov/Dec/Jan periods, and as seen above, the 2012 rise was really due to a strong October. With a 3 month lag effect, this fits in well to explain why January 13 was much colder than December 12. The lowest was 2007, followed by 2008 and then 2011, which also fits in quite well in my theory.

 

The highest September-November (general 3-4 month lag for synoptic=December-February/March) rise was 2009, followed by 2011, followed by 2012. 2009 is obvious due to the incredible Dec/Jan/Feb, but 2011 is perhaps a little obscure, 2012 matches up. 2011 had a poor September-October rise, but a magnificent October-November rise. This to me explains the incredible cold felt in late Jan/Feb in much of W Europe, that did indeed affect much of Britain. The lowest was 2008, followed by 2010, followed by 2007. I'd say this works well as (bar the extremely early Feb 2009 outbreak) Jan-Feb-Mar was not that special, but this method of course cannot completely accurately avoid small-scale cold/warm events such as that. 2010 was obvious as early 2011 was dreadful for cold synoptics, and 2007 saw a very low Sep-Oct and a very high Oct-Nov, which explains why April 2008 was cold, whilst Feb/Mar were not particularly.

 

The highest October-December (general 4 month lag for synoptic=February-April) rise was 2007, followed by 2012. 2007 had the cold April 2008 and of course 2012 had March 2013. 2010, 2011 and 2008 were all pretty similar, whilst 2009 was further away, which seems weird considering March/April/May 2010 was very cold- but this is only because the snow area rose so much in October-November, that it couldn't rise much further in November-December due to the fact it had pushed so far ahead of average already, and so is statistically an anomaly which can be easily proven.

2007 7.94 / 19.07 = 42 : 100

2008 8.53 / 17.65 = 48 : 100

2009 11.16 / 21.71 = 51 : 100

2010 10.49 / 18.54 = 57 : 100

2011 9.19 / 21.00 = 44 : 100

2012 10.99 / 20.97 = 52 : 100

 

Now this looks like rubbish, gobbel-dee-gook to everyone, but is easily explained. On the left is the August-October rise in Eurasian snow cover, whilst on the right is the September-November increase. The bold ratio is simply the ratio of AUG-OCT to SEP-NOV increase. The larger the number on the left, the better December, January and to a (very small) extent, February looks to be. As you can see, it looks spot on, as 2010 has great figures (57!) and had an incredible early winter, 2012 was a very good winter, especially synoptically, and 2009 also, whilst 2008 is around average (48). 2011 and 2007 are much poorer in their ratios, and the winters were much poorer. This for me was the more accurate and potentially reliable stat for prediction.

AUGUST/SEPTEMBER W/LAG = NOVEMBER/DECEMBER

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER W/LAG = DECEMBER/JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY

OCTOBER/NOVEMBER W/LAG = LATE JANUARY/FEBRUARY/MARCH

 

AUG/SEP (FOR NOV-DEC)

2009: 0.50

2007: 0.54

2012: 0.94

2008: 0.99

2011: 1.39

2010: 1.46

 

SEP/OCT (FOR DEC-JAN-EARLY FEB)

2007: 7.40

2008: 7.54

2011: 7.80

2010: 9.03

2012: 10.05

2009: 10.66

 

OCT/NOV (FOR LATE JAN-FEB-MAR)

2010: 9.51 (slight adjustment for forward snow extent from prior months)

2008: 10.11

2012: 10.92

2009: 11.05

2007: 11.67

2011: 13.20

 

And that about says it all really, the highest value in Aug-Sep was 2010 (for Nov-Dec), Sep-Oct was 2009 (for Dec-Feb) and for Oct-Nov was 2011 (for Jan-Mar, which in reality seems far off, but Feb 2012 was incredible nearby and in parts of the SE).

I'd love it if people had a read of this and my comments below each part, would really appreciate any feedback, I was really happy with this theory and will definitely test it out. I know it's quite a long read, but anyone with 5-10 minutes spare could read it all, and give any criticism/words on it, that would be great. Think i'll make my own 'snow-only' winter forecast later on, based mostly on this.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[Bobd29]

Frosty you have input a lot of work into this and deserve applause for that alone. It is quite possible that. a fairly short timeframe distorts data but I have to say the findings are certainly interesting, particularly the Eurasion snowcover

ratios that clearly show a factual historic record whether coincidental or not. So I for one would be interested in your forecast based on the above sequences (makes a change from teleconnection relationships, interesting tho these are as we edge towards another winter). Good luck, and good effort...

[cooling climate]

Very interesting read Frosty. It will be interesting to see the figures for this Autumn what

with the CFS and the seasonal ECM long range forecasts calling for a - AO and NAO

winter at the moment.

One point I remember in Cohen's papers on Siberian cover in the fall was not just the

area of snow cover but perhaps  more importantly according to Cohen the latitudinal

extent of snow cover.

Could this possibly be incorporated into your results to see if this made any marked

difference to the AO and NAO sign and corresponding winter.

[Isolated Frost]

Very interesting read Frosty. It will be interesting to see the figures for this Autumn what

with the CFS and the seasonal ECM long range forecasts calling for a - AO and NAO

winter at the moment.

One point I remember in Cohen's papers on Siberian cover in the fall was not just the

area of snow cover but perhaps  more importantly according to Cohen the latitudinal

extent of snow cover.

Could this possibly be incorporated into your results to see if this made any marked

difference to the AO and NAO sign and corresponding winter.

I'll definitely look into it, but I'm sure latitude will be much trickier to track, I'll have a go. The problems are, that pre-2007, the whole dynamic was completely different, when it comes to snow area, which is since much higher in winter, and much lower in summer, and similar for ice. This is why it's sometimes hard to get a good reliable feed of data, as much of the data is pre-2007.

EC solution has a large swathe of sub 0c upper air- much more than the current extent, and it's likely that we've now seen the furthest extent of warmth on the pole, and it will begin to slowly cool throughout the northern hemisphere. First snowfalls across Baffin, Greenland and Svalbard likely, then move onto Siberia, Alaska and Scandi. Most interesting time of year, the descent into winter...

[stewfox]

All I can say is, here we go again! Mine and many others favourite Autumn thread, as we observe the small white pixels spread westwards from the mountains of Siberia, into the forests of Scandinavia, and eventually, the hills of Scotland and England!

cursnow_asiaeurope (1).gif

Here's a link to last years thread http://forum.netweat...isphere-201112/

 

 

So does winter start tomorrow ?? Cant wait

[syed2878]

this is the last years thread snow an ice 2012 2013 when is the new 1 starting?

[summer blizzard]

End of month will be best, there's little to report at the moment.

[Isolated Frost]

End of month will be best, there's little to report at the moment.

Yeah probably, normally CH starts it though.

[summer blizzard]

Yeah probably, normally CH starts it though.

 

That's the stratospheric thread, this one you started last year.

[stewfox]

this is the last years thread snow an ice 2012 2013 when is the new 1 starting?

Last yr 14th Aug (started by Isolated Frost) yr before 13th August (cyclonic happiness) ye before end Aug (CH)

Not much to 'see' at present, although a few spots did appear far west of Russia a few days ago, now gone

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/loop/asia-1mo-loop.html

Edited August 13, 2013 by stewfox

[stewfox]

That's the stratospheric thread, this one you started last year.

Another CH