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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13


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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

In spite of my slight negativity of the slow crawl of snow and ice towards our shores, I think us guys n gals should check the calendar. Posted Image Here is yesterday's (19th November) offering from NOAA.

post-7183-0-07159000-1353410671_thumb.pn

Now, where were we, a week back (12th November)

post-7183-0-54436900-1353410768_thumb.pn

And almost a week further back, i.e 7th November (near two weeks ago)

post-7183-0-77314400-1353410871_thumb.pn

Upon a quick glance of the GFS 0z ensembles, to our East, Moscow looks set fair for a while with possibilities of it becoming much colder and snowier as we enter December. To our Northeast, Helsinki is forecast a messier scenario, but there are strong hints for an unsettled period with an ever increasing likelihood of snow from the beginning of next week, if not before. To our Northwest, Reyjavic is extremely messy but there still remains a fairly strong indication that things are becoming more settled and warmer over this region. With regard to Iceland, my last comment should NOT being taken as a bad signal as it indicates WAA and a probable sign for blocking. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

im wondering why not much attention is paid to the North American snow cover as the jet moves from west to east..surely the amount of snow and ice would have an impact to the jet and pressure patterns leading to possible downstream changes as it exit the eastern seaboard into the north Atlantic?

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

im wondering why not much attention is paid to the North American snow cover as the jet moves from west to east..surely the amount of snow and ice would have an impact to the jet and pressure patterns leading to possible downstream changes as it exit the eastern seaboard into the north Atlantic?

Hi Cheeky

I think if you look at either the strat thread or technical model thread then they do very much take account of the snow cover in north america and how important it is in the pattern change we are starting to see. So you comments are correct re the down stream changes

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

The ice continues to build and western Canada has filled in nicely again. Looking at today's charts, I don't think snow cover is going to be much of a problem for Northern Europe by the beginning of December! Looks cold for us, but could be snowmagedan for Scand?

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

It seems I may well be right, let's hope so. Posted Image

Remember this

Anybody got a 2010 comparison chart please. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

It seems I may well be right, let's hope so. Posted Image

Remember this

Anybody got a 2010 comparison chart please. Posted Image

Well we did agree to settle on a North Easterly!!!!!

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow!
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow!

Wow! huge gains since I last checked!

Posted Image

Here is an animation since 10/07/12 (a few days are missing Posted Image )

post-12611-0-95338100-1353625150_thumb.g

Edited by jamesd
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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

jet stream in tatters ' highs growing stronger over Greenland and arctic..happy winter everybody...here the 4th sunny day in a row..I hear of rain and wind here its frost and sun...

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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Posted Image last few days

compared to the snow benchmark

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image more hopeful at the minute!

so come on winter 2012! we know you can do it.

Edited by harshwintercoming
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Let it roll guys n gals.

http://www.myweather...type=UPPER_TEMP

Posted Image The above only goes out as far as midnight Tuesday but you can clearly see the beginnings of our cold spell, enveloping us from both the North and the East. Posted Image This becoming more apparent, later within the animation. Posted Image

Below is the latest snow and ice image, courtesy of NOAA, although it looks a bit suspect. Posted Image

post-7183-0-34335100-1353707307_thumb.pn

Here are the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Moscow, way out East. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation.

post-7183-0-03328200-1353707467_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-37220700-1353707467_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-37860100-1353707568_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-84050200-1353707568_thumb.pn

Here are the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Helsinki, way out Northeast. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation here too.

post-7183-0-02741600-1353707804_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-33979800-1353707736_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-31068800-1353707735_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-92740700-1353707735_thumb.pn

Finally, the 21st and the 23rd November 12z GEFS for Reyjavic, due Northwest of our shores by a few hundred miles. Note the mean (red line) and control (blue line) trend in T850s and associated precipitation here as well.

post-7183-0-12241400-1353708090_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-50060500-1353708089_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-08406700-1353708130_thumb.pnpost-7183-0-52199100-1353708130_thumb.pn

From the above, I hope you can ascertain as to where the GFS models might be heading, in terms of Northern Europe and Eastern Europe's snow cover. Bear in mind as ever, trends IMO are often acquired when one compares like for like runs, as shown above. Rather amazingly, I would suggest FI is within the region of t+48 to t+72 over parts of Europe, so it would be folly to deduce anything other than a general cooling down for our shores at this stage, the snow will then follow. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

From the above, I hope you can ascertain as to where the GFS models might be heading, in terms of Northern Europe and Eastern Europe's snow cover. Bear in mind as ever, trends IMO are often acquired when one compares like for like runs, as shown above. Rather amazingly, I would suggest FI is within the region of t+48 to t+72 over parts of Europe, so it would be folly to deduce anything other than a general cooling down for our shores at this stage, the snow will then follow. Posted Image

Excellent post! The key is to get the cold here first, then the snow will look after itself. The trend over recent years has been that cold has hung about longer than originally forecast (December's 2009 and 2010 in this neck of the woods for example). Anyway, going off topic, I'm off to view the NH snow cover charts!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Posted Image

Snow cover stable over the NH.....that's soon to change though!!!!! Ice cover accelerating as the below chart indicates; almost caught 2007 (previous record low)

Posted Image

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

love reading this thread. keep it coming.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

I believe that the snow is making progress west. I have been deliberately been keeping away for a while and checking in periodically to see the progress being made. It makes for better viewing this way.

It's all looking good and the charts for the coming cool down look very promising.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

A bit of a westerly 'encroachment' in Russia and ice continues to build, otherwise it's much as you were throughout the NH...............not for long though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

A bit of a westerly 'encroachment' in Russia and ice continues to build, otherwise it's much as you were throughout the NH...............not for long though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted Image

Yes it will quite interesting to see how the snow will progress westwards when we (hopefully) get this easterly later in the week. Edited by panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Luckily, it looks like Scandinavia will cool down again - so hopefully an increase there.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Ice extent continues to increase rapidly; almost dissected the 2007 line now!

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Lovely stuff! The westward march of snow continues.....massive new chunk today through Russia and into Belarus and Ukraine. Keep it coming this way please!

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

When does the Baltic begin to freeze?

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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Lovely stuff! The westward march of snow continues.....massive new chunk today through Russia and into Belarus and Ukraine. Keep it coming this way please!

Posted ImagePosted Image

At lest it wont melt like the last big push west as the temps are due to drop over the last days of Noember
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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

When does the Baltic begin to freeze?

This website http://www.itameripo..._GB/jaatilanne/ gives you all the information on current, previous year, and average Baltic ice conditions; but the season has not yet started, so the simple maps are still showing the situation from last May.

However, if you follow the link below to the 'Actual coloured ice chart' http://www.itameripo...ef/icemap_c.pdf , the map is fairly current, and shows that on 22nd Nov the first ice of the season was JUST beginning to form in some of the inlets on the far northern edge of The Gulf of Bothnia.

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Further to this post from the other day, it does seem the 12z GFS output is trending as suggested. I can confirm SNOW from the following places, as indicated on the webcams, shown below.

Moscow - http://www.earthcam.com/russia/moscow/

Reykjavíkurtjörn - http://live.mila.is/english/tjornin/

Reykjavík - http://eldgos.mila.i...lish/reykjavik/

It is going as planned so far and my thoughts on the UKs prospects, can be seen via the link below. Please note there is a SE bias to it, so that has to be factored in, when thinking about your own prospects for SNOW. Posted Image

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2415887

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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