Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2012/13

[SMU]

Its coming- winter is one its way-

In the short term ( maybe 10-15 years) the arctic having low summer coverage- heading towards sub 2 million Sq may well benefit us have a net effect on the westerly zonal wind ( as pointed out in the link someone posted)

The anomaly 500 Heights seem to be +VE around greenland which is good news for us-

Im expecting a strong cold winter for NW europe!

only 14/15 weeks to go!

[Snowstorm1]

Its coming- winter is one its way-

In the short term ( maybe 10-15 years) the arctic having low summer coverage- heading towards sub 2 million Sq may well benefit us have a net effect on the westerly zonal wind ( as pointed out in the link someone posted)

The anomaly 500 Heights seem to be +VE around greenland which is good news for us-

Im expecting a strong cold winter for NW europe!

only 14/15 weeks to go!

WINTER IS COMING STEVE IS HERE

[LincolnSnowstorm]

i find this part of the forum very interesting .as regards any body being qualified enough to understand Ice melt i think its a case of its a fairly new science and a lot more money and research needs to be undertaken . scientific measurements ,temp of sea areas at the surface of the sea and at different depths need to be logged at all times of the year at same times etc . its a shame that we do not have records going back ages but instruments have only been around for a very tiny fraction of the time that ice as been present .but as we all know its such a complicated set up that even the top scientists can only make an educated quess ,and its only a quess ,but i do feel that sea ice melt is seriouse whether its manmade or just a part of a cycle ,so we need to keep on top of it or we could all get caught out . if there is anybody interested i look at a web cam on baffin island during autumn /winter ,go on google type in KIMMIRUT weather cam ,it does not update that regular but you can get a feel of the place .its 62 Degs 51 north and temp today aprox 5c .iv seen the odd husky about .cheers

http://www.kimmirutweather.com/

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Well here's the latest anomaly image and as we can see, there are a very few more negative than positive atm.

It doesn't mean alot at this stage though.

Ty IF for keeping up with the updates

and that negative anomaly ties in losely with more high daily temp records than low at the present time http://coolwx.com/record/ time of day maybe a factor here but there could be more of a connection in a month or three time. VVPB Hue Vietnam LOW: CLOSE 77.0 74.3/68.4 2.7 1957 37 ENAN Andoya Norway LOW: CLOSE 39.2 36.7/28.8 2.5 1996 39 WBGB Bintulu Malaysia LOW: CLOSE 73.4 71.1/69.1 2.3 1959 50 UIBB Bratsk / Irkutsk Russia LOW: CLOSE 41.0 38.8/26.6 2.2 1990 64 ZGKL Guilin China LOW: CLOSE 69.8 68.0/57.2 1.8 1957 50 ZYTL Dalian China LOW: CLOSE 60.8 59.5/53.6 1.3 1989 48 ID City Country Type Edited August 27, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Isolated Frost]

Its coming- winter is one its way-

In the short term ( maybe 10-15 years) the arctic having low summer coverage- heading towards sub 2 million Sq may well benefit us have a net effect on the westerly zonal wind ( as pointed out in the link someone posted)

The anomaly 500 Heights seem to be +VE around greenland which is good news for us-

Im expecting a strong cold winter for NW europe!

only 14/15 weeks to go!

Well, the composites I put out don't seem to be promising for NW Europe. I'd also imagine +ve anomalies o/Greenland really have no benefit to us atm, if not a reversal of the anomalies come winter.

But this is chat for another topic somewhere

[UV-RAY]

Its coming- winter is one its way-

In the short term ( maybe 10-15 years) the arctic having low summer coverage- heading towards sub 2 million Sq may well benefit us have a net effect on the westerly zonal wind ( as pointed out in the link someone posted)

The anomaly 500 Heights seem to be +VE around greenland which is good news for us-

Im expecting a strong cold winter for NW europe!

only 14/15 weeks to go!

This must be your earliest ramp yet Steve, looking at the long range models maybe we could see a repeat of 2010 with winter arriving early. Hopefully it will stay around longer!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Things are a bit quiet as we head towards winters hoping for some good ice charts in the coming month and more snow on webcams

Edited August 27, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Isolated Frost]

This thread seems to have been hijacked by cold sensationalists more than usual?

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.scienceda...20823143833.htm

http://wattsupwithth...solar-activity/

[Cutty Dyer]

This thread seems to have been hijacked by cold sensationalists more than usual?

Being a much maligned bunch we tend to congregate in numbers; now back to the sensationalist posts - anyone seen this before?

Details here:

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50

Edited August 28, 2012 by Cutty Dyer

[Gavin Hannah]

It looks like the "dinosaur" has been on a diet...

Also, here is an image to the current SST's, showing just how warm the arctic water is.

Edited August 28, 2012 by MadSnowboarder

[Snowmadsam]

makes me feel a lot better

[cyclonic happiness]

This thread seems to have been hijacked by cold sensationalists more than usual?

That is because cold is sensational!! *does a silly dance*

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbgoKKj7TNA

makes me feel a lot better

That video make me feel so funny inside, like i'm a child waking up in the morning and finding a 10" blanket of snow and complete silence bar the sound of children's laughter.

I so love to watch snow fall, even on youtube!

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok so this is off topic lol, but if you love watching snow... watch this.

[cyclonic happiness]

I love the camera work on that video, the way the snow sparkles and is so light as can be simply skied through.

Wonderful!

[Gavin Hannah]

Todays image, the dinosaur no longer resembles a dinosaur.

Heres yesterdays.

[summer blizzard]

Good news for our purposes is that the polar cell will be expanding over Russia/Siberia over the next 5-10 days, so we may well see a decent uptick in snow amounts, especially in Eastern Siberia.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Good news for our purposes is that the polar cell will be expanding over Russia/Siberia over the next 5-10 days, so we may well see a decent uptick in snow amounts, especially in Eastern Siberia.

And a bit of potential for highland cold and snow in 8 days http://www.yr.no/pla...Nevis/long.html with my caution being that it does seem to overestimate snow from experience last winter. Edited August 29, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Continental Climate]

well the old russian ships will be sailing round the arctic quite merrily now as its all perfectly circumnavigable up there now so it seems and with three weeks of melt left to go.

I also hope people arent cheering the loss of ice in the arctic just because it may give us a slightly increased chance of a colder winter. Ice loss is devastating up there for both wildlife and man

[sebastiaan1973]

For a SSW we should preferably get a solar flux below 110 (when we are in the easterly phase of the QBO, although also possible during maxima and 'in between'; 110-150 solar flux). According to Labitzke and Kunze, a maximum starts with a solar flux above 150, a low with less than 110 units. Right now (july 2012 we are at 135). With the expected maximum in the first half of 2013 I don't expect it to get down as low as that. Quite unusual that we are almost in the maximum but still not reach the needed 150.

So there seems not a 'great' chance for a SSW.

Edited August 29, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[Gavin Hannah]

Might a SSW occur though with the record amount of Arctic Ice loss?? All that extra energy has got to go up. Also what to note is that winters 09/10 and 10/11 occurred when the sun was as dead as a dodo. Though, I cant remember if we had SSW.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

well the old russian ships will be sailing round the arctic quite merrily now as its all perfectly circumnavigable up there now so it seems and with three weeks of melt left to go.

I also hope people arent cheering the loss of ice in the arctic just because it may give us a slightly increased chance of a colder winter. Ice loss is devastating up there for both wildlife and man

And also as it is completly uncertain that the ice level and sunspots amounts will give us a cold winter will the other weather factors like Jet stream placement not play a much bigger role anyway?

[cyclonic happiness]

If people are uploading images of the currant day's snow and ice, could they please host it through a site like 'Photobucket' or such?

Otherwise we have problems with some of the images automatically updating every day, which messes up the thread's timeline if you see what I mean?

So we have images from 3-4 days ago showing the 29th's image.

Thankyou

[Seasonal Trim]

Where are we most likely to see the most significant snowfall first?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Where are we most likely to see the most significant snowfall first?

We should see some snowfalls across parts of Siberia and eastern Arctic Canada over the next few days.