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Somerset Squall

Hurricane Gordon

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After moving off the west coast of Africa a week ago, invest 93L has developed little due to very dry air and cool waters. It has journeyed northwestwards and is out in the open Atlantic. Today, convection has increased over an increasingly well defined LLC. NHC give 93L a 50% chance of becoming a TC in the next 48hrs as the air is now more moist and sea temperatures are increasing. Models are forecasting 93L to recurve well east of Bermuda but potentially threaten the Azores Islands eventually. SHIPS is keen on making 93L a hurricane. We may need to watch 93L too- although it's a long way off, 93L may reach our shores as an extratropical storm next week.

at201293_model.gif

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Phew! I won't need to edit the title yet, then? biggrin.png

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Invest 93L has become Tropical Depression Eight, and is expected to strengthen more as it heads Northeast.

Models keep changing, but we could still be in the firing line come next week!

at201208_5day.gif

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Yup, now the eighth tropical depression of the Atlantic season. Intensity is 30kts. Although the LLC is well defined the convection isn't all that deep currently. Even though shear is low and waters warm, I still think dry air will continue to plague 08L. it should not stop intensification all together however, and I think NHC's forecast of a high end tropical storm is a good one. It cannot be ruled out that 08L becomes a hurricane however. The Azores Islands look to be in the firing line, though the storm will probably be transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it nears the islands as sea temps decrease and shear heightens with lattitude.

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TD 08L has now become Tropical Storm Gordon with winds of 40mph. If the models stay as current (which they probaly wont), Gordon is predicted to become a Category 1 Hurricane on Saturday, and may still be on a collision course with us, though the models still can't seem to agree on anything as of yet.

at201208_ensmodel.gif

at201208_5day.gif

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I'm sorry, I just couldn't resist this....

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Hey, it's named after me!

Tropical Storm Gordon formed in the Atlantic overnight but was expected to steer clear of land, meteorologists said.

The storm was centered about 585 miles east of Bermuda and was moving northeast at about 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Gordon was expected to intensify slightly in coming days and could turn into a hurricane by the week's end. But the tropical storm will likely stay over open waters.

It's a small tropical storm, with winds up to 40 mph extending only 25 miles out from the center of the system, forecasters said.

Gordon is the seventh named storm of this hurricane season, which was predicted to see 12 to 15 named storms, of which, up to eight could be hurricanes. LINK

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Gordon has continued to intensify this evening and is now a 55kt tropical storm. If this rate of intensification continues then Gordon will become a hurricane tomorrow. Gordon has turned to the northeast and is expected to head eastwards from tomorrow as the storm moves along the northern periphery of the subtropical steering ridge. This steering pattern will likely persist for a few days, pushing Gordon towards the Azores. Gordon has a few days of favourable conditions before sea temps cool along track and a shear rises. Both of these factors will initiate extratropical transition as Gordon near the Azores Islands.

Latest view of Gordon shows a small central dense overcast and tight organisation overall:

post-1820-0-36397100-1345154063_thumb.jp

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Gordon is showing up on the aviation chart this morning:

PGNE14_CL.gif

Heading towards the Azores?

T.S. Gordon forms, but path shows move away from U.S.

August 16, 2012 7:25 AM

MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Gordon has formed in the Atlantic but is expected to move away from the United States.

Gordon's maximum sustained winds early today are near 40 mph (65 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center says some strengthening is forecast over the next two days and Gordon could become a hurricane over the weekend. Gordon is centered about 585 miles (940 kilometers) east of Bermuda and is moving north-northeast near 14 mph (22 kph).

The storm's forecast track shows it moving farther east in the Atlantic over the next few days and the hurricane center says those in the Azores should monitor its progress.

http://www.news-jour...ay-from-us.html

tsgordonthurs11pm.jpg?w=300

prediction-forecast-td-hector-ts-gordon-invest-atlantic-ocean-caribbean-sea-gulf-of-mexico-remnants-seven-ts-emily-16-aug-2012-1200-gmt.png

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Classic! I play this on my local pub's jukebox, especially as one of the regulars is called Gordon.laugh.png

Anyway I always wonder, when these storms get into the temperate latitudes, whether they can distort medium term weather patterns, so will watch the models with interest.smile.png

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Gordon still turning up on Atlantic charts heading towards the Azores:

052037Z_21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_12081812.GIF

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NHC now upgraded it to Hurricane Gordon, they also mention complete disappation later on

Remember Hurricane Vince from a few years back, made it all the way to Spain, as a Tropical System

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A beauty, unlike Vince however Gordon will interact with the Jet Stream and die.

Would be epic if a circulation ever made it to the med.

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Gordon is sporting a very nice eye on satellite imagery, could become a cat 2 IMO before shear rises again.

Interesting coincidence the similarities in track between this Gordon and Gordon from 2006 too

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Gordon is looking fantastic and is 90 it's ATM according to latest Nhc model initiation.

Still a bit more time to make it the first major hurricane of the year and what a strange place to have one....

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Given the higher than forecast strength i do wonder if Portugal should be thinking about a Tropical Storm watch even if the system will be dying.

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Gorden seems to be intensifying still and has achieved Category 2 status, with 105mph sustained winds.

at201208_5day.gif

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the Spanish isles not the best place to be if this comes off !

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Gordon weakened slightly back to sustained winds of 105 mph. Possibly not going to make it to major Hurricane status.

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Hurricane warning in Portugal's Azores as Gordon intensifies; hurricane likely to hit Monday - @Reuters

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Red warning of Rain for the Azores for tomorrow from meteoalarm.

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