Typhoon Kai-Tak

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 14W has formed around 400 miles east of the Philippines. 14W's LLC s well defined and has persistant convection covering it. Intensity is currently 25kts, but the depression should strengthen over the coming days as shear is low and waters are warm. One inhibiting factor is land interaction with Luzon, but if 14W remains on track, this should be a very short lived hinderance. 14W is heading towards the west along the south side of a subtropical ridge (STR) currently. However, an eastwards moving trough over China is expected to weaken the STR and allow 14W to turn northwestwards into the weakness. The timing is uncertain, and the later the turn the more interaction 14W will have with Luzon. Landfall is expected in China after 14W moves to the northwest for a day or so, but once again this is still uncertain. Should become clearer as ever in the coming days though.

[Somerset Squall]

14W has strengthened and become Tropical Storm Kai-Tak, with sustained winds rising to 35kts. The storm is being impacted by moderate shear at present which should keep further intensification slow for now. Shear should ease as Kai-Tak passes Luzon, and JTWC forecast Kai-Tak to become a low end typhoon prior to approaching Hong Kong, China. Track forecast is largely similar to before.

[Coast]

A sea warning will be issued Tuesday for Tropical Storm Kai-Tak, the season's 13th tropical storm, the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) said Monday. As of 8 a.m. Monday, Kai-Tak was centered some 980 kilometers southeast of Eluanbi on the southernmost tip of Taiwan, in the area east of the Philippine island of Luzon, the bureau said.

The storm was moving in a northwesterly direction at a speed of 12 km per hour, according to the bureau. With a radius of 100 km, Kai-Tak was packing sustained winds of 64.8 kph, with gusts of up to 90 kph, the bureau said. If the storm maintains its current course, it may begin to bring rain to northern and eastern Taiwan Wednesday, CWB meteorologists said.

As high waves are expected in waters off eastern Taiwan, they said, the bureau will issue a sea warning for the storm Tuesday. With Kai-Tak expected to move toward Taiwan, chances are high that the bureau will issue a land warning for the storm soon afterwards, the forecasters added.

http://focustaiwan.t...ID=201208130007

WTPN31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 004

UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

130600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 126.6E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 126.6E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

131800Z --- 16.9N 125.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

140600Z --- 18.0N 124.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

141800Z --- 19.1N 122.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

150600Z --- 20.2N 121.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

160600Z --- 22.0N 117.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

170600Z --- 23.4N 114.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

180600Z --- 25.2N 111.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

130900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 126.3E.

TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM

EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

130600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND

140900Z.

http://www.hurricanezone.net/

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak has strengthened to 45kts. The storm has had a low level centre relocation today, to the northeast of the previous position. The LLC is now located on the northeastern edge of the convective mass, indicative of shear. The convection is currently drenching Luzon with more flooding rains. These rains will likely continue as Kai-Tak moves northwestwards to the northeast of Luzon. Shear is expected to ease, which should allow Kai-Tak to at least become a cat 1 typhoon. The northeastwards relocation of the LLC has meant that the track has shifted to the right too, and the latest track puts Kai-Tak very close to Taiwan at it's peak intensity, so this needs to be watched. Kai-Tak should make landfall northeast of Hong Kong in around 3 days time.

[cornishbrooksy]

Keeping my eye on this one too!

Latest JTWC update has it making landfall as a Cat1 Typhoon 20nm East of Hong Kong.....time to batten down the hatches yet again!

[Somerset Squall]

Yeah, well worth keeping an eye on Cornishbrooksy- the track forecast keeps shifting left and right like a yoyo because Kai-Tak's LLC keeps relocating and wobbling all over the place. Hong Kong is definitely in the firing line at present. Of immediate concern is Luzon currently, looks like Kai-Tak will actually make landfall on northeastern Luzon now as the centre has relocated to the southwest. This relocation has put the future track away from Taiwan but closer to Hong Kong.

The intensity is now 50kts. Depending on how much time Kai-Tak spends over Luzon, we could still be having a cat 1 typhoon making landfall near Hong Kong.

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak has crossed Luzon has is now in the South China Sea. Intensity is now at 55kts. The storm's passage over Luzon has had little detrimental affect to the circulation, and Kai-Tak should still become a typhoon prior to landfall near Hong Kong.

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak has become a typhoon with intensity now at 65kts. The storm has impressive centralised convection and strong banding. Further intensification is likely, particularly as the waters off the coast of China are hot.

[knocker]

Tropical Cyclone Warning

At 160600 UTC, Typhoon Kai-tak (1213) with central pressure 970 hectopascals was centred within 30 nautical miles of one nine point three degrees north (19.3 N) one one five point seven degrees east (115.7 E) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 13 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 65 knots.

Radius of over 33 knot winds 90 nautical miles.

Radius of over 47 knot winds 45 nautical miles.

Radius of over 63 knot winds 30 nautical miles.

Radius of over 2 metre waves 210 nautical miles.

Forecast position and intensity at 170600 UTC

Two one point three degrees north (21.3 N)

One one zero point three degrees east (110.3 E)

Maximum winds 65 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 180600 UTC

Two two point three degrees north (22.3 N)

One zero four point two degrees east (104.2 E)

Maximum winds 30 knots.

Forecast position and intensity at 190600 UTC

Dissipated over land.

The Hong Kong Observatory's tropical cyclone warnings for shipping are issued about one and a half hours after the time of observation. They incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based positions given in the hourly bulletins for public.

The uncertainties, based on average errors, of the latest analysed position and 24, 48 and 72-hour forecast positions are of the order of 30, 150, 250 and 350 kilometres respectively.

Tropical Cyclone Track

http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tcswarn.htm

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak strengthened to 70kts but has weakened slightly to 65kts. The typhoon has moved much further west than originally expected and is now moving well south of Hong Kong. Hainan Island looks to be now in the firing line, along with neighbouring areas of China. Kai-Tak is expected to strengthen again prior to landfall on about 18hrs time.

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak strengthened to 70kts prior to landfall. The storm is now well inland and is moving westwards into northern Vietnam. JTWC have issued their last advisory.

[Somerset Squall]

Kai-Tak killed at least 27 people in northern Vietnam over this weekend. A further 2 died across South China as Typhoon Kai-Tak brushed the coastline

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19312295

[cornishbrooksy]

Real sad new about the deaths from Kai-Tak, quite substantial.

Here in HK it had little effect...we had the signal 8 raised for the 3rd time this year (average is just over once a year), so has been quite active.

This storm was quite similar to TS Doksuri for us earlier in the year, nothing particualr to note, few gales here and there, but no adverse effects here.

Stayed around 200km to the south of us.