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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 12th to 14th August 2012

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Nice thunderstorm near the Channel Isles...it's headed for the south coast somewhere in the area of Bournemouth to Southampton, worth keeping an eye on for folks on the south coast in the next couple of hours

My binoculars aren't that good....... e018.gif

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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted

My binoculars aren't that good....... e018.gif

Lol could borrow my 10 inch dob? Would be upside down though! Going slightly off topic sorta. Did I read somehwere that theres a chace for a plume event over the weeked? El Bridgnortho maybe? Nah...I'll get my coat :)

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Lol could borrow my 10 inch dob? Would be upside down though! Going slightly off topic sorta. Did I read somehwere that theres a chace for a plume event over the weeked? El Bridgnortho maybe? Nah...I'll get my coat smile.png

I had to read that twice rofl.gif

Regarding the weekend, seems to be a fair assessment but I'm going to stop well short in casting aspersions about thundery potential. If GFS is pin point accurate (which of course its not at this stage) then we can expect some high temperatures across the parts of Wales and C/S England, with a slap of high humidity too. However, despite some exceptionally high CAPE values and very low LI figures on the charts, the following should be noted:

1. Much of the energy stays over the continent, with GFS VERY reluctant to bring much of it North of the Channel

2. Where CAPE/LI figures are stunning, GFS breaks out no precipitation indicating too strong a ridging in place and whopping levels of CIN

3. There could well be an active front straddling the UK somewhere, meaning behind said front it will be a bit cooler with showers possible, under it will be thoroughly miserable and wet, while to the south of it likely to be hot and humid...so, it wont be a 'plume' for everyone

Here are the synoptics from GFS/ECMWF:

GFS

h500slp.png

ECMWF

ecm500.144.png

So yes could be an interesting weekend though will keep the bunting and balloons in the cupboard for the time being!

Love the binoculars too Coast biggrin.png

MetO forecast radar showing some heavy precip across the SE corner this evening...could be interesting given the activity kicking off in the Channel.

Edited by Harry
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Nice clockwise-curved hodograph (top right) for Birmingham on Wednesday:

post-9715-0-51962000-1344801525_thumb.pn

Similar windfields across across many parts. In that sort of environment, updrafts will be spinning rapidly before they've had time to mature lol.

Ok, now I'm heading into ramp territory.

Oh you have so much to live up to now. Youve had it if its all a flop. :lol:

But cant deny the ingredients are there for big storms, 28th June style yet again. Lets hope it comes to fruition though cant help but feel cloud etc could inhibit.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Well metoffice say rain cllearing through the first ppart of the night. What rain, its dry and quite sunny here but very thundery feeling. I wonder whats happppened to this front then? It's also very quiet in here, what's going on!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

I wonder whats happppened to this front then? It's also very quiet in here, what's going on!

LOC_20120813_0900.png

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Just dull and dry here. Much quieter than expected. :(

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I did think something would happen today but much like yesterday, its just not happening (although there were some thundery showers over the Peak District yesterday evening). The front is not producing hardly any rain either away from southern counties.

There are some heavy showers over Wales which may turn thundery. GFS still giving Halifax a 52% risk of storms at 10pm and 1am tonight though. The NW coast has a 75% risk of storms at 7pm (using Blackpool as the town).

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Wished this forum would stop logging me out!!! Grr only recently started happening..

Anyway..

According to the N-W homepage, I have a thunderstorm!!!!! Whoo noo..

Checks outside...

Nada.

No rain, Not much cloud. Just muggy dryness.

Hmmmm

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Eye to the sky Enthusiast

Eye to the sky

Posted
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Clear and Frosty/Snow Showers
  • Location: Denby,Derbyshire,90m/295ft asl De5
Posted

Thought I just heard a rumble of thunder to the west of me in Derby and it has gone very dark.Not convinced though as there has been nothing since.Still extremely muggy and close though.It was probably someone's wheelie bin lol!!.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Those current weather icons on the homepage are just taken from GFS predictions I think, aren't they?

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Those current weather icons on the homepage are just taken from GFS predictions I think, aren't they?

yeah most certainly.. Im just whining because im bored. But to be honest, Thats till pretty damn poor performance at 0h :)

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

yeah, it is. LOL.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Here's the latest state of play radar wise, and a sneak preview of an upcoming feature on the V6 radar as it's also showing the current visible satellite as an overlay biggrin.png

post-2-0-22127700-1344875462_thumb.png

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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted (edited)

Here's the latest state of play radar wise, and a sneak preview of an upcoming feature on the V6 radar as it's also showing the current visible satellite as an overlay biggrin.png

post-2-0-22127700-1344875462_thumb.png

NOW THAT IS AWESOME :D :D :D :D

Edited by Sunmadsam
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Its all gone bang over Northern Ireland. Now just need it to do the same over this side of the Irish Sea drinks.gif

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Chris W Contributor

Chris W

Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
  • Weather Preferences: Many
  • Location: Christchurch, NZ
Posted

Come to daddy! I have lots of SBCAPE for you to feed on...please.

post-17125-0-33227800-1344878005_thumb.j

As for Sunday's GFS charts (yes I know, too early) over East Anglia and Kent ohmy.pngshok.gifbomb.gif .

Here's the latest state of play radar wise, and a sneak preview of an upcoming feature on the V6 radar as it's also showing the current visible satellite as an overlay biggrin.png

Hi Paul, many thanks for that. Whereabouts are you?

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todd1970 Newbie

todd1970

Posted
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
Posted

Things really getting going in Ireland just now , is that the front that will move West-East across the whole country ?

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Check out that potential monster event Sunday night, that could happen over EA+SE. :o

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Check out that potential monster event Sunday night, that could happen over EA+SE. ohmy.png

It will change significantly before then. Wish it would come more West, purely for the fact there is likely to be some Eastwards shift in a few days time.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

It will change significantly before then. Wish it would come more West, purely for the fact there is likely to be some Eastwards shift in a few days time.

Yeah, What's the betting our noisy neighbours will get it all entirely! We'll be left with zilch as per usual!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

It will change significantly before then. Wish it would come more West, purely for the fact there is likely to be some Eastwards shift in a few days time.

Evidence for this?......or rather a glass half empty post that requires activation of the 'whiners' thread? wink.png

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted (edited)

Check out that potential monster event Sunday night, that could happen over EA+SE. ohmy.png

2,000J/kg CAPE overnight - insane! BUT 300J/kg of CIN, so alas nothing will come of it (if that run were to verify, which is unlikely).

Edited by staplehurst
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