Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 12th to 14th August 2012

[gottolovethisweather]

welcome SONIA SQUIRE ,just read plenty of posts ,theres also a net weather learning area and you can ask other posters questions on the forum ,we have many knowledgeable members . interesting period of weather coming up wed/thurs but locations and any severity is still uncertain ,enjoy the ride but its a big rollercoaster ,cheers legritter

Indeed legritter and there is some good input on that particular period on the MOD thread - see below

http://forum.netweat...80#entry2351221

In addition, check out the latest Fax Chart below. Now, my attention has firmly moved on to Wednesday.

gottolovethisweather

[Supacell]

Well decided enough is enough and I am back home now There are still some pokey showers around, infact one of them has Halifax and Bradford written on it, but nothing thundery.

Kudos to the met office today i think, they didn't expect anything thundery after the early morning storms and they were correct.

[Polar Maritime]

Having a very heavy shower here, nothing electrical a.t.m....

[Cloud 10]

We have a strike.

[Supacell]

We have a strike.

And its part of a heavy shower that is heading my way, but may just go to my west... hitting areas such as Sowerby Bridge.

Some very heavy returns just SE of Glossop and more strikes now around Bakewell. All this heading north so I may just get a storm out of it... although not getting too excited yet, it has to survive about 40 miles to get here.

Edited August 12, 2012 by Supacell

[Cheese Rice]

Woo a lightning symbol for Wednesday!!

[AWD]

A short note on Wednesday, Matt Hugo over on twitter seems to think the thunderstorm action will be over onto the near continent, severe too.

[Nick F]

Wednesday looks potentially interesting for severe convective weather on tonight's 12z GFS, but of course along-way off and things may change.

Very powerful jet for mid-August sweeps across the Atlantic and arrives from the SW via BoB towards the UK on Wednesday, with a deepening surface depression in the left exit of this jet moving N towards Ireland:

Plume of very moist and potentially unstable air (high PWAT values) advects NW across England and Wales ahead of the cold front moving in from the SW,

0-6km and 0-1km shear very strong (surface winds backed S/SEerly to the strong veering SW'erly flow aloft, storms that form ahead in warm sector or along cold front in this set-up could organise into bowing line segments or maybe supercells with mesocyclones with a tornado threat, plus risk of large hail and damaging winds.

Given such high precipitable water (PWAT) values could lead to some very high rainfall totals too!

[Cloud 10]

And its part of a heavy shower that is heading my way, but may just go to my west... hitting areas such as Sowerby Bridge.

Some very heavy returns just SE of Glossop and more strikes now around Bakewell. All this heading north so I may just get a storm out of it... although not getting too excited yet, it has to survive about 40 miles to get here.

Looks to be developing nicely,so fingers crossed!

[NUT]

Been down in Guildford all weekend (back in scotland now though) Pity the breakdown didn't extend that far east although seems today's earlier activity is perking up again (And some good prospects to come this week possibly)?

[AWD]

Wednesday looks potentially interesting for severe convective weather on tonight's 12z GFS, but of course along-way off and things may change.

Very powerful jet for mid-August sweeps across the Atlantic and arrives from the SW via BoB towards the UK on Wednesday, with a deepening surface depression in the left exit of this jet moving N towards Ireland:

Plume of very moist and potentially unstable air (high PWAT values) advects NW across England and Wales ahead of the cold front moving in from the SW,

0-6km and 0-1km shear very strong (surface winds backed S/SEerly to the strong veering SW'erly flow aloft, storms that form ahead in warm sector or along cold front in this set-up could organise into bowing line segments or maybe supercells with mesocyclones with a tornado threat, plus risk of large hail and damaging winds.

Given such high precipitable water (PWAT) values could lead to some very high rainfall totals too!

Thanks for that, makes easy reading on understanding the potential for Wednesday.

Any favourable locations/regions as of yet, or is it still way too early to call?

[Cloud 10]

Wednesday's low looks a very potent feature on tonight's ECM with very warm air

being sucked up from the continent.

[Supacell]

Thunder heard to my south

[AWD]

It sure is going to be wet & windy if nothing else on Wednesday!

In all seriousness though, there are some colours on the High_res LW charts I've never seen over the UK before! Wet Bulb and Helicity to name but a couple. Interesting period coming up, very interesting!

[Cloud 10]

And here was me thinking the jet couldn't go east to west.

Latest fax chart for wednesday. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif

Edited August 12, 2012 by Cloud 10

[Lynxus]

Awesome.

Wednesday looks like a nice day for a BBQ then.

It seems that around here no matter what amount of rain / storms are predicted its just sunny.

Mark my words, It will be 30c and clear here on Wednesday.

This is the dry spot im talking about.. The weather just goes around me!

Edited August 12, 2012 by Lynxus

[Chris K]

Awesome.

Wednesday looks like a nice day for a BBQ then.

It seems that around here no matter what amount of rain / storms are predicted its just sunny.

Mark my words, It will be 30c and clear here on Wednesday.

This is the dry spot im talking about.. The weather just goes around me!

Haha it will change by Wednesday no doubt. Definately something to still keep an eye on...

[Supacell]

And then that was it. Storm just died about 5 miles to my south and now just heavy rain.... oh well, wasn't to be.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

does this event on Wednesday look like effecting the whole of the uk?

[AWD]

does this event on Wednesday look like effecting the whole of the uk?

I would say the South East and Midlands are the early runners at the moment but that could and probably will chop & change a lot still yet. In any case, its still 3 days away and it could go the way of the UKMO and nothing comes of it at all. ( just heavy rain ).

[AWD]

Nice clockwise-curved hodograph (top right) for Birmingham on Wednesday:

Similar windfields across across many parts. In that sort of environment, updrafts will be spinning rapidly before they've had time to mature lol.

Ok, now I'm heading into ramp territory.

Where do you get skewt charts from? Do you have one for Bristol?

[Evening thunder]

All day today all the Met Office have been forecasting me on Wednesday is light showers.. eh really?

Forecasting light winds wednesday night into Thursday too.

Edit: actually they've just found a single 'heavy shower' symbol to throw in for 7am on Wednesday, and an increase in forecast wind strength too. Going in the right direction I guess.

Edited August 12, 2012 by Stormmad26

[AWD]

Sure do:

Looks like rotating updrafts are coming to a town near you, too!

N-W Extra will give you access to the custom extended Skew-Ts.

Thankyou, much appreciated! Nice to know my location is in the mix too!

[Nick F]

Thanks for that, makes easy reading on understanding the potential for Wednesday.

Any favourable locations/regions as of yet, or is it still way too early to call?

Very dynamic and fast moving situation atm -so wouldn't like to hazard a guess this far out how it may actually pan out. But atm, CS/SE England, Midlands and E Anglia most likely for severe weather atm where strongest vertical shear and instability overlap.

[Supacell]

Somewhere has got a moderate (MDT) from ukasf for tomorrow with an interesting forecast. However, i cannot see the map so don't know where the MDT is for.