Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 12th to 14th August 2012

[Lynxus]

Is that a shortwave in the bristol channel?

Looks like that could influence a fair amount of convection to its south and east esp with the encroaching mcs?

[Harry]

I never advocate GFS excitement days in advance, but I nearly fell over when I saw Wednesdays charts!!!!

Complex setup so detail could be difficult to pin down in terms of thunder, but looks of energy and moisture!

[Somerset Squall]

Got woken up by a thunderstorm this morning around 6am, a few dull flashes of lightning (because of the intensity of the rain!) and fairly loud booms of thunder. Didn't last long (or I was awoken near the end of it), but better than nothing Hoping for some more but there doesn't look like there is much on the radar at present.

[Chris.R]

Chucking it down here atm, no thunder though. Good to see I might be in a good spppot for this afternoon.

[Gord]

Been raining here for a while now...nothing of note with it...agree that it did have that thundery look as it came in. Just seems like a plain wet Sunday afternoon now.

[MP-R]

Well after an hour or two of murk following the end of the thunderstorms at about 8am, the sun has been out and it actually feels warmer at this time than yesterday despite it not being - must be the humidity. Wouldn't be surprised if there are further downpours/storms later this afternoon before fizzling out ahead of tomorrow's general rain.

Either way, if there aren't going to be more storms here today - the next best thing is sunshine!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Lovely warm sunshine here now after that rather underwhelming trough came through and did well...frankly very little. Had I still been waiting for a storm, I'd be fuming right now.

[Mapantz]

Saw some elevated lightning out towards Portland early this morning. No rain at all though ..

It's a shame nothing of interest is happening today as it's very sticky, dew point of 17.3°C here.

[Sunny Android]

North-West England looks to have the best chance this afternoon with some decent energy

available to fire the trough up a bit.

It's raining and we are losing the heat here.

I'm sure it's going to be further inland and Pennine areas may be the best place ?

[Supacell]

Hmm, everything has died. Thats a disappointment i had geared myself up for chasing.

[Raidan]

What a night! I was ready to give up when the storms in devon and exeter died and nothing else was showing on ATD but....i stayed up and as a reward i got my storm,from midnight onwards there was lots of sheet lightning but no thunder but that started a few hours later,then had the lot a thunderstorm and torrential rain,went to bed eventually as was hanging only to be woke up just after 8am by another storm,i dont care if nothing else happens today i got what i been waiting for for years and im out of the NSC,YIPPEE,Good luck to the ones left though hope you get something.Oh and Michelle i didnt text you as was early hours and didnt know if you would get anything,

[Chris.R]

It's now sunny. I don't know what'll happpen this afternoon, maybe something will. It feels more humid now than it did before. I guess we just see if any surfice bassed storms can develop.

[AWD]

What a night! I was ready to give up when the storms in devon and exeter died and nothing else was showing on ATD but....i stayed up and as a reward i got my storm,from midnight onwards there was lots of sheet lightning but no thunder but that started a few hours later,then had the lot a thunderstorm and torrential rain,went to bed eventually as was hanging only to be woke up just after 8am by another storm,i dont care if nothing else happens today i got what i been waiting for for years and im out of the NSC,YIPPEE,Good luck to the ones left though hope you get something.Oh and Michelle i didnt text you as was early hours and didnt know if you would get anything,

I woke up at about 6am and saw the second storm that hit us. Really loud big thunder frequently but I only saw 2 flashes of Cg lightning. Torrential rain at one time though, turned my road into a river temporarily.

A little gutted that I slept through the nightshow, but still saw a storm so I am more than happy and as you are, I too am out of the NSC.

But I still want more. Lol.

[Raidan]

Lol AWD so do i,im glad i got something as was planning on packing it all in at the end of the month and not bothering anymore,well it will be many years before we see another storm but very happy about what i got today.

[Eye to the sky]

Skies are certainly darkening to to the south of here and the breeze has picked up too.Still pretty bright to the north with patches of blue sky.

[Supacell]

I'm not giving up yet Weather09, i have more stamina than that

With thoughts that the NW will be best placed later this afternoon i have began tracking up that direction and i am currently just south of Buxton admiring the Peak District hills and the sheets of grey skies above.

With the highest risk area now being behind the line of rain running SE to NW, could it be behind this line where the best activity will occur or is going to be along this line? If it is along it then i think the main risk area needs to be adjusted east as its already clearing NW England.

[MP-R]

Lol AWD so do i,im glad i got something as was planning on packing it all in at the end of the month and not bothering anymore,well it will be many years before we see another storm but very happy about what i got today.

Or a few days depending...

[Darren Bown]

I'm not giving up yet Weather09, i have more stamina than that

With thoughts that the NW will be best placed later this afternoon i have began tracking up that direction and i am currently just south of Buxton admiring the Peak District hills and the sheets of grey skies above.

With the highest risk area now being behind the line of rain running SE to NW, could it be behind this line where the best activity will occur or is going to be along this line? If it is along it then i think the main risk area needs to be adjusted east as its already clearing NW England.

I too would like to know this too as like you said, the front has cleared manchester.

[Matty23]

Showers now forming in Wales

[AWD]

Just down at Yatton at the moment and had a brief but very heavy shower. Skies looked really thundery too, but brighter now.

[Hathers]

People in the West Mids keep an eye on them showers building in Wales.

[Matty23]

I'm in Ludlow traveling to shrews bout 6ish so may catch sumit on my journey back and forth

[Chris W]

It will be interesting to see if that line forming north of Swansea can develop into something and head this way. After what seems like heavy rain earlier (I was indoors and missed it) the sun has come out, quickly evaporating the surface water left by the rain into a haze which is now clearing and allowing some strong sunny spells to heat things up (22 C, dew point 15 C). We are in the GFS-modelled peak of surface CAPE, though I do not know what MLCAPE we have here this afternoon, and I'm sure I saw on one of Coast's charts that some deep convergence is modelled here this afternoon too.

Would be lovely to see a storm today, if not the rest of this week is looking very interesting.

Edited August 12, 2012 by Chris W

[Eye to the sky]

All the dark threatening clouds have passed us now and the sun is shining again.Had a very brief splattering of large raindrops a few minutes ago.Still feels very muggy though.

[Lauren]

My area has been like the storm draught capital of the SE. Not happy.