Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 12th to 14th August 2012

[Robbie Garrett]

Still a fairly good chance early hours Sunday Morning, and into the afternoon.

Lots of energy, is there potential?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still a fairly good chance early hours Sunday Morning, and into the afternoon.

Lots of energy, is there potential?

If that is to break any capping, it will explode like mints in lemonade that has been shook for 12 hours straight judging by that chart!

[Chris K]

Still a fairly good chance early hours Sunday Morning, and into the afternoon.

Lots of energy, is there potential?

Perhaps, although GFS precipitation keeps any rain to the Western fringes and up towards NE really. Obviously its still a bit outside the reliable time frame for rainfall, but it seems like maybe pressure will have too much influence and keep it capped? Looks interesting to watch though to see how it develops in future runs.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Chris K

[Robbie Garrett]

If that is to break any capping, it will explode like mints in lemonade that has been shook for 12 hours straight judging by that chart!

Looking at the 3am chart, there seems to be a bit of a curve in the pressure so maybe a trough to set it off.

Perhaps, although GFS precipitation keeps any rain to the Western fringes and up towards NE really. Obviously its still a bit outside the reliable time frame for rainfall, but it seems like maybe pressure will have too much influence and keep it capped? Looks interesting to watch though to see how it develops in future runs.

Yeah, BBC currently has light rainfall for early Sunday Morning. Who knows.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Radar showing cell North of Bangor area has fired up. Any sferics on this anyone? Looks like its just cropped up out of the blue.

Edited August 14, 2012 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[MR CB]

Radar showing cell North of Colwyn Bay has fired up. Any sferics on this anyone? Looks likes its just cropped up out of the blue.

Looks like anaprop or radar deflection/reflection - seems to behave as such as no clear cell direction/distinction.

Haven't been on the forum hardly this year - I've not witnessed a thunderstorm so far....very odd. Maybe a chance within the next few days.

Edited August 14, 2012 by MR CB

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looks like anaprop or radar deflection/reflection - seems to behave as such as no clear cell direction/distinction.

Haven't been on the forum hardly this year - I've not witnessed a thunderstorm so far....very odd. Maybe a chance within the next few days.

Best looking chances of one so far this year coming up I think. Some seering heat is looking ever more likely to break out over the weekend, and, well... look at them lifted indexes and CAPE over the SE Sunday morning! :o

[paul m]

I dont think I've ever seen such a large part of the country under a red severe warning from Ukasf before. Do people think this is a similar setup to June 28th??

The severe is actually for rain if you read the full UKASF report

Edited August 15, 2012 by paul m

[Arnie Pie]

Morning all and good luck for today

Due to being away most of the morning ...Brumcam will be left on timelapse, just in case we have any squall in the area

So no images available today

[Coast]

Going to close this one as we are onto today's specific storm thread now. Another new convective thread for tomorrow onwards here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74149-uk-convective-general-discussion-forecasts-16th-august-2012/