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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Hector

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A tropical disturbance containing some remnants of former atlantic Hurricane Ernesto has become Tropical Depression 08 E, south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Sustained winds are estimated to be 30kts. The depression is under moderate to high shear currently, and this is expected to make intensification slow. NHC are still forecasting 08E to become a hurricane though in 4 days time. 08E is forecast to move westwards along the south side of a strong ridge to the north, away from the coast of Mexico. This means heavy rains should begin to subside here.

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The depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hector this morning, with intensity now at 40kts. Hector has some very deep convection near the LLC, which is tilted to the west due to moderate (20kts) shear. This shear is expected to persist for the next 48hrs, limiting the potential for intensification. Shear is expected to ease thereafter, but Hector will be moving over cooler waters after 72hrs, so the window of favourable conditions is small. NHC have backed off making Hector a hurricane for this reason.

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Very strong shear has balsted Hector since I last posted. Convection has been stripped away from Hector's LLC. Convection keeps trying to refire but is been immediately sheared away to the west. Unless this shear lets up or eases in any way, Hector runs the risk of degnerating into a remnant low. Intensity is 35kts, but this could be generous given the satellite appearance of the storm.

I'm sure this is just a mistake, but could forecaster Pasch be letting out his true feelings as to the genesis of the storm? LOL

HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD

A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE

LOWER-LAYER FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS

VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

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Shear has eased a little over Hector this evening but remains at a moderate range (20kts). This reduction in shear has allowed convection to build and expand near the LLC (or just to the west but not as seperated as this morning). Consequently, the intensity has increased back up to 40kts. Significant strengthening is not expected as shear will continue to plague Hector, and when the cyclone moves over cooler waters in a day or so the weakening trend will firmly set in. This could happen sooner if the shear rises back to the levels they were last night. Hector continues to move westwards away from the coast of Mexico, well south of Baja California.

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Shear continues to affect Hector, but the storm has held an intensity of 40kts today. Convection remains deep, but sheared west of the LLC. Hector remains over warm water for now but as waters cool in a day or so, Hector will be unable to generate deep convection and will dissipate in the continued high shear. Hector has begun to turn west-northwestwards and will turn towards the northwest towards a weakness in the ridging to the north. However, as Hector weakens and becomes a shallow system, it will eventually be steered in the easterly low level flow to the west.

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Hector is alive, but barely. The storm slowed considerably then turned to the north over the last day. This has brought Hector over colder water. Intensity fell to 25kts this morning, making Hector a depression. Very little convection remains near the LLC as shear continues to be high. All of the convection that remains is well west of the LLC in a weak band. Hector is expected to degenerate into a remnant low very soon well west of Baja California.

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The last advisory on Hector was issued this afternoon. Regeneration is not expected due to persistant shear and cold waters beneath the system.

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