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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Helene

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Invest 92L has become Tropical Depression 07L midway between Africa and the Eastern Caribbean. The depression has an intensity of 30kts. Some dry air awaits to the west along with moderate shear. These factors will make any intensification slow over the coming days as the depression heads to the west

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Ernesto-esque?

Current Forward speed could coincide with east coast US mainland trough pushing through Southern Georgia/S Carolina come wed 15th and encourage a more NWesterly motion but as Ernie did maybe this could stave off shear and go TS to low end cane cat status but current probability favor's a TS @ 56% as early as 6-7pm BST tomorrow?

out to 120hrs gives an all combined category `cane status @ 23%, changes to this will be interesting on the obvious favourables (or more accurately not so`s) along the way.

I think it`s palpable however to say this won`t be a short lived "Florrie"? on the provisio of east Caribbean survival may I add ;)

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Yeah I think thats a very good assessment Mezza, looks to go into the Caribbean like Ernesto but the environment is far from ideal so like you say 07L is likely to be kept in check like Ernesto, at least to begin with. It's difficult to say what will happen in the western Caribbean, if 07L gets that far.

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It certainly has an interesting future however i am not sure the models have as good a grip.

The ULL which almost killed Ernesto is in almost the same position for TD7 but there are a few factors which may aid TD7 in comparison...

1) TD7 has formed a day or two further east giving a little more time for strengthening before the big fight, as a result most models have a moderate to strong TS approaching whatever the Islands of the east Carribean are called

2) The mid-layer ridge guiding TD7 is stronger than with Ernesto, whilst this may cause speed problems again (20mph at the moment) this also means less wobbles northward and as a result i suspect TD7 may enter the Carribean no higher than or even further south than Ernesto.

3) Whilst days 4-6 will be the most dangerous there is a Kelvin wave approaching from the west which should counteract the ULL and as a result once it passes Jamaica it should be fine

4) Whilst a Yucatan hit is probable again, steering currents suggest a Texas/Luisiana is more probable so more time in the GUM.

I guess at this stage i am more bullish than the models (though it was not until Ernesto was just about dead that ECWMF actually called re-intensification) and i expect TD7 to be stronger than Ernesto was both coming into the Carribean and hitting the Yukatan.

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Tropical depression 07L

Warning 01 from NHC at 2100 GMT

Position 13.7N 43.8W

Location 1155 miles E of the Windward Islands

Movement 270° (W) at 17 knots

Maximum sustained winds 30 knots gusting to 40 knots

Threatened landmasses Windward Islands

Next warning from NHC at 0300 GMT

07L has formed and will move quickly west. Less than favourable atmospheric conditions will preclude rapid strengthening, and there is a chance that the system may not survive for very long.

http://tropicalcyclones.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/9-august-2012-bulletin-505.html

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TD7 is now an open wave after recon was unable to find a surface circulation.

Looking at the speed (25pmh) and sattelite it does appear as if the low and upper level circulations have decoupled.

Could be a prospect for development if it slows but for now at least it is no more.

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How ironic, NHC downgrade and with the durinal max the centre has reorganised, an island south west of the centre has reported westerlies (indicating a closed circulation) and the models now say the ULL to its north will be gone in a day.

If it can hold together through the day tommorow then this could be upgraded to a TS.

rbtop0-lalo.jpg

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Clearly sheared (likely due to its speed) but most certainly alive again.

Recon goes back in again tommorow.

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The remnants of 07L have moved through the Caribbean, across the Yucatan and are now in the Bay of Campeche. Looks like, 6 days after 07L ceased to be a tropical cyclone, that it may be one again very soon

DATA FROM AN OIL PLATFORM ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SUGGEST

THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE REGENERATING VERY CLOSE TO THE

COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION

SEVEN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP DETERMINE

IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED...A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A

PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...WINDS AT

OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE

TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE

SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH

CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN

THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.

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The remnant low of former Tropical Depression 07L has redeveloped and become Tropical Storm Helene, with sustained winds of 40kts. Helene is less than 24hrs away from landfall in Mexico, so little intensification is expected.

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Now Tropical Storm Helene.

Will make landfall in Mexico in around a day however a few runs do have this going NNE.

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Indeed SB, the latest NHC track is interesting, nearly has Helene re-emerging into the Gulf at the end of the period. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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Looks very unlikely now that Helene will re-emerge into the Gulf. The remnant low is dissipating over the rugged terrain of Mexico.

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Interesting to note that invest 95L has just been tagged in the Bay of Campeche, though it may contain some mid level remnants of Helene, Helene's LLC has dissipated so if 95L does become a storm it will not be named Helene.

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