Terry Scholey Weather Forecasts

[Gavin P]

Hello everybody;

Just want to point out that you can now read the awesome Terry Scholey's latest monthly weather forecasts at my website:

http://gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Terry updates his forecasts twice a month on the 1st and the 15th, so keep a look out.

Thanks

Gavin

[Gavin P]

"Mid-August to mid-September 2012.

General Comments:

Pulses of warm, sub-tropical air continue to come up from the south bringing mixed, humid weather. Progressively however, there should be a trend for winds to turn into a north-easterly quarter, although how this manifests itself remains a little uncertain at present. As a result, confidence is somewhat lower.

The August prediction remains good, despite strange displacements and a weakening of a sometimes non-existent "Jet Stream" in the vicinity of our shores. Similar circumstances in the past follow the solar cycle quite well, with comparable years showing anticyclones over Greenland into early autumn. This is uncommon as the mean pressure at this time of year over the huge island, is usually at its lowest.

More detailed summaries: Events should normally be within a day or so.

August 16th to 19th: Unsettled and windy at first in the north and west, with occasional rain or showers. Very warm or hot and humid in the east and south, where finer spells could lift temperatures to 28 to 30C. It will not be entirely settled though, with the risk of locally sharp showers and perhaps thunderstorms. There will be humid "sticky" nights when temperatures will not fall below 13 to 19C.

August 20th to 22nd: A finer spell particularly in central and eastern areas, where further very warm afternoons are expected. It may feel slightly fresher though at least for a time, with top temperatures 23 to 26C in the east and south and 18 to 22C in the north and west. The nights will remain very mild, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 13 to 17C.

August 23rd to 26th: Warm and humid in the east and south at first, but more generally unsettled and somewhat cooler later. There will be occasional rain or showers giving heavier bursts, with a risk of thunder mostly at first. Maximum temperatures could be 17 to 26C falling to 15 to 20C, but the nights should remain very mild with minimum values say 11 to 16C...."

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Gavin P]

Hi all,

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

"September 2012 Final Update."

General Comments:

A drier and warmer than average September seems likely particularly over central, eastern and southern areas, with just brief cooler intervals occasionally "feeding down" from the north. It could also be a sunnier than normal month, especially over England and Wales. Current weather patterns are suggesting that on the whole the first and the third weeks should provide the driest conditions, with changeable weather most likely towards mid-month and at the end.

There is still some doubt as to the pressure pattern around mid-September, as several key years in the past came up with different results. One particular September of interest was that of 1879, that like this year followed one of the wettest summers on record. It is also a particularly good lunar match and to some extent is close to the current phase of the solar cycle.

Confidence is medium to high, with the timing of weather events likely to be within a couple of days. The next update will be the mid-September to mid-October prediction.

September 1st to 6th: Predominantly dry, particularly in central and southern areas, with some warm sunshine although cloud amounts will vary. Breezier and more unsettled over Scotland particularly the north and west and at times over Northern Ireland, with occasional rain or showers. Temperatures will be close to normal in the north say 15 to 17C by day, but above average in the south and east with some very warm afternoons when 23 to 25C could be reached. The nights generally will be mild, with minimum values mostly between 7 and 13C.

September 7th to 9th: A few showers perhaps over north and east Scotland at first, otherwise staying mainly dry with perhaps some quite sunny days. Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be noticeably brighter, but it could be somewhat cooler and fresher with chillier nights. Top temperatures in the north should be 13 to 16C and in the south 18 to 20C, with minimum values say 5 to 10C giving a risk of ground frost mostly in the north.

September 10th to 15th: Some intervals of warm sunshine but probably increasingly hazy, with more in the way of cloud and early mist or fog patches. Also an increased risk of showers particularly towards mid-month, when some locally could be heavy perhaps giving thunder. Feeling warmer or milder, with top temperatures 16 to 18C in the north and 19 to 24C in the south. The nights should also be milder, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 8 to 13C....

Click here for the rest: : http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Gavin P]

Hi all,

Here's Terry Scholey's mid September to Mid October weather forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

TERRY SCHOLEY WEATHER SERVICE

Latest thoughts mid-September to mid-October 2012

General Comments:

The period towards mid-September has been more mobile than originally thought, but the promised

warmer, drier than average month has certainly materialised so far. The reminder

of September should also follow the original forecast quite well, with perhaps

brief tastes of "Indian" summer into the final week in the east and south. It

will eventually become more unsettled however, with showers giving thunder in

places towards month end. Confidence remains medium to high.

The confidence for the first half of October though is somewhat lower, as the

situation is a little more confused. A fair amount of quiet, mainly dry autumnal

weather is suggested giving some dull, misty days but there could also

appearances of St Luke's little summer in the east and south. There will be some

rain at times as well though, with the end of the first week briefly looking

particularly unsettled.

September 16th to 20th: Westerly breezes give a north/south split. Windy at times over Scotland and in the north with occasional

showers, but there will also be some dry weather giving sunny spells especially

in the east. Central and southern areas could see the odd shower, but here it

should be mainly dry with sunny spells. It will feel chilly in the wind at times

in all areas, but eastern and southern parts will have some pleasantly warm

afternoons. Top temperatures say 14 to 19C, with minimum values 2 to 8C bringing

the risk of ground frost to some sheltered northern valleys.

September 21st to 25th: Quieter at least for a time, with a mix of cloud and sunny spells

after the clearance of early mist and patchy fog. The east and south could have

brief tastes of "Indian Summer" but there will be some showers mostly over

Ireland and in the west. Later it could become more generally unsettled, with

locally heavy showers. Maximum temperatures should be 15 to 18C in the west,

while the odd day in the east and south-east could see 22 to 24C being reached.

The nights should be milder, with minimum values between about 9 and 14C.

September 26th to 30th: Generally unsettled with showers locally heavy

and prolonged giving thunder in places. There will be brighter spells however

giving sunny intervals especially in the east and south, after the clearance of

early mist or fog patches. Although gradually becoming cooler, temperatures

should be well up to normal reaching say 14 to 19C, with minimum values mostly

between 7 and 12C...

To read the rest please click here: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

[Gavin P]

http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html

Mid October To Mind November 2012

General Comments:

It's very tempting to make predictions regarding the coming winter at this time, but there are signs that the approaching season could be very cold at times and snowy. Another concern is that there could be wintry spells both in the forecast below and snow in places well before Christmas. As far as the remainder of the winter is concerned, there is a need to see how both the stratospheric wind and pressure over Greenland behaves in the next week or so.

The current thirty day prediction sees a marked drop in temperature towards the end of October or into the first few days of November, followed by some perhaps quite sharp frosts and patches of freezing fog. There will be milder, unsettled spells however, most likely at first and again probably in the second week of November.

Weather period breakdowns:

October 15th to 20th: Unsettled everywhere and quite wet at times, with heavy rain in places. There could also be strong winds occasionally, between brief drier, quieter intervals. Temperatures will vary but it should generally be mild, but cold enough at times over northern Scotland for snow on hills. The thermometer could reach 16 or 17C briefly in the east and south of England in milder intervals, but 12 to 15C should be a more general daytime maximum. The nights however should be milder generally, with minimum temperatures mostly in the range 5 to 9C.

October 21st to 25th: Pressure should build probably from the north, giving a drier, quieter interval, with showers fading at least for a time. The north and east of Scotland and central and eastern areas of England could be dry for much of the period, with a mixture of sunny spells and sometimes dull, misty weather. Ireland and western areas may become unsettled and breezier later with rain or showers. Temperatures should be close to or slightly below normal reaching say 9 to 14C. The nights however will be somewhat colder with a risk of ground frost especially in central and eastern areas, with minimum values for a time mostly between say 1 and 6C....

For the rest please click here: http://gavsweathervi...rryscholey.html

Edited October 15, 2012 by Gavin P

[Gavin P]

Hello folks,

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

Here's Terry Scholey's month ahead forecast:

November 2012 final update.

General Comments:

A changeable, rather cold and at times wet November is envisaged, with rainfall totals probably above normal. It could also occasionally be quite blustery, but there will be dry, finer, colder spells when overnight frosts could locally be quite sharp.

The origin of air masses this coming month will often be from the Iceland or Scandinavia areas making it feel rather cold, even when winds are blowing from the west. Frost and snow mostly on hills should be more frequent than usual, with the mean average temperature over most of the country likely to be below average. Confidence is medium to high for the first half and medium for the second.

Summary:

November 1st to 4th: Unsettled and rather cold. There will be showers and some longer spells of rain with snow at times on northern hills. The east and south will have the best of the sunny intervals. Top temperatures will be 6 to 9C, with minimum values say -1 to +3C giving slight frost in places.

November 5th to 8th: Still rather cold with showers particularly in the east at first, but becoming finer and drier for a time. There will be sunny spells, but mostly slight frost could be more widespread. Maximum temperatures should be 5 to 9C, with minimum values mainly in the range -2 to +2C.

November 9th to 12th: Becoming unsettled again and probably quite windy for a time with variable temperatures, although it could briefly become milder particularly in the north and west. Occasional rain or showers seem likely with snow possible on northern hills particularly later. Top temperatures should be 7 to 11C, with probably somewhat milder nights say between 2 and 6C....

To read the rest please click here:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html