Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 4th August 2012>

[Supacell]

Cloud 10, where do you get that wind chart from? Could be very useful for me chasing as I could look where winds are converging.

[legritter]

im also not sure what to expect but 10min ago i did notice the top of a very large cell out to my far south of southwest ,also things moving much slower at present .it could get interesting around here and the west of bristol say 10am/11am ish .also low is coming in almost over us later .wouldnt be surprised to see some reports of some 1st class storms in one or two locations ,gone very dark now to my south and s/west ,cheers

[lewisosd]

Are netweather going to produce a forecast for today?

[Cloud 10]

Cloud 10, where do you get that wind chart from? Could be very useful for me chasing as I could look where winds are converging.

Xc weather winds

[NL]

Cloud 10, where do you get that wind chart from? Could be very useful for me chasing as I could look where winds are converging.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Supacell]

Thanks for that Cloud 10 & NL. I'll be keeping an eye on this chart as i think wind convergence will provide a focus for showers today. Already signs of things developing here, although it is all above a haze that has been here all morning.

[IanR]

Same thing happened around where i live, but i was out chasing yesterday. However, looking at the lightning charts I spent the day chasing in that big hole of very little sferics, which is probably why i saw very little.

I wish there was some way of predicting where the best storms would be. Yesterday looked to be the NW of England but it was further south across the Midlands and the northern part of Northern England that got the best. I would try and predict todays best areas but seems similar to yesterday and so the word is unpredictable.

Only thing i can see that may help is a line of wind convergence, which if becomes the focal point for storms could be good for both yourself and for me. However, i just have a gut feeling today that I cannot get rid of that is telling me North and East Yorkshire up towards Newcastle upon Tyne today. Not sure why, its just a feeling.

Polar Thole, a SE to NW flow could favour areas that do well in plume situations... could be this that is making me think of the areas above (entrenched deep into my subconscious somewhere). Keep getting York in my head... maybe i should place myself there...who knows?

I should have warned you not to come to the uk storm vacuum , does not matter what favourable parameters the charts say, the sheild will have the last say , seriously

[AWD]

Think I will head down to the Bristol Channel coast today. Meto seem to think the same places as yesterday will get hit in this area, and looking at the radar, seems like a good start down there.

Last chance for my area for a while today, so going all out to get something now!!

[Weather-history]

Convection is really kicking off now, can see large cumulus development to my west

[Michelle Baker]

Me and Raidan are in Bristol and are thinking of heading to portishead/Clevedon again but not really sure of the best place to be today, any ideas?

[Weather-history]

Convection is really kicking off now, can see large cumulus development to my west

Can see what looks like 3 cells to my NW, towards Blackpool region.

[AWD]

Me and Raidan are in Bristol and are thinking of heading to portishead/Clevedon again but not really sure of the best place to be today, any ideas?

I'm heading to Clevedon today. Will have my 4 year old with me so that's ideal I think. Stuff for him to do there and in a good spot to catch cells around the Bristol Channel.

Early days yet, but looking at the radar, already stuff heading up towards the Channel coasts!

[Supacell]

Can see what looks like 3 cells to my NW, towards Blackpool region.

Sferics around Furness in Cumbria so you could be seeing the tops of them if they are large enough. Things starting to kick off in other areas now too.

I shall stay away from the "storm vacuum" today lol. If i leave this area i think i would be tempted to head NE towards Harrogate - York - Durham areas.

[IanR]

stramge

Convection is really kicking off now, can see large cumulus development to my west

strange that , are you sure, i am to the west of you and its just a sheet of cool, drizzly looking stratus here, the type that you associate with a dank november morning, and thats how it feels here this morning

[Michelle Baker]

Cool think we'll head to Clevedon too but not sure what time. If things are starting up already it might be best to get down early. I wasnt sure whether Glouster would be any better, a lot seemed to kick off there yesterday

[Weather-history]

stramge

strange that , are you sure, i am to the west of you and its just a sheet of cool, drizzly looking stratus here, the type that you associate with a dank november morning, and thats how it feels here this morning

No stratus here, it has been warm in the sun. I can see the status area from here but beyond that convection is really kicking off.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Weather-history

[IanR]

I shall stay away from the "storm vacuum" today lol.

very very wise,its just like a november morning here today, then again watch us get a storm now errrr I dont think so

[legritter]

bristol could very well be the place to be but equally portishead and clevedon , so take your pick [MICHELLE BAKER ] looks like weston is about to get hit with something . better still pop up to dundry and you could get some spectacular views later .truckers now reporting torrential rain on M5 between taunton and bridgewater .PS ITS GOOD POTENTIAL ALL DAY IN OUR AREA ,CHEERS

[AWD]

Cool think we'll head to Clevedon too but not sure what time. If things are starting up already it might be best to get down early. I wasnt sure whether Glouster would be any better, a lot seemed to kick off there yesterday

I will start heading down there around lunchtime. Going to give it a couple more hours yet and watch how things develop first so I don't mess it up this time.

Also awaiting replies from Ian Fergusson as to where he/Meto think the main risk areas are.

But I will definetly be heading to somewhere near the Bristol Channel today as I think this will aid rather than hinder convection for once.

[bobbydog]

woo- hoo! thunder, lightning, monsoon!

[Stuart]

Look like i going to miss out

Most of Britain and Ireland (excluding northern Scotland)

Synopsis:

A slow-moving area of low pressure will drift across southern Britain during the day with various upper troughs circulating the flow bringing the risk for widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Discussion:

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of Britain through the day, particularly this afternoon. CAPE values will range between 600 - 1000j/kg with the highest CAPE being situated across the Midlands and later in the day Eastern England. Like yesterday there will be little to no wind-shear, thus storm organisation will be relatively poor, however with proximity to the vertically stacked low over Britain and no cap, showers and thunderstorms will be plentiful in coverage.

There will be many outflow boundaries and surface wind convergence zones as the low migrates slowly from west to east across southern Britain, and at times this convergence could provide the opportunity for a brief funnel or weak tornado.

Mid-level temperatures are cold for the time of year, thus hail is a possiblity, however with lack of shear, hail saize should be relatively small.

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/199

[Cloud 10]

Forecast out from UKASF,which looks decent.

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/199

lol,beaten to it!

Edited August 5, 2012 by Cloud 10

[Supacell]

Look at the amount of sferics from that tiny storm (as in spatial) around Barrow-in-Furness? New sferics to the west of Preston and a whole load across Northumberland. Plus some now to the south of London. I have a good feeling about today.

Where is the moderate risk on the ukasf forecast? For some reason i can never view there maps.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Supacell

[NorthYorksWeather]

I believe today will be better than yesterday with hopefully the people who missed out yesterday seeing some action. Gonna be chasing this afternoon based in the York area. Got me phone fully charged

[Cloudwatcher]

I've decided after reflection that I'm going to remain in the NSC. Enjoyed yesterday, but it did mean me tearing down country lanes trying to find a storm. In the end I saw two distant CG's and heard three distant rumbles of thunder. It shows how storm starved some of us are that this actually made me happy! I actually enjoyed the fact I got to see cloud formations that consisted of more than the featureless grey murk we have had to endure this year!!

Wondering what today will bring......