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Somerset Squall

Tropical Storm Florence

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Invest 90L has formed out near the Cape Verde Islands, and is looking very impressive this evening. The invest has boasted a well defined LLC through the day but convection is now becoming much deeper over the centre. Persistance is key, and if this convection does persist then this will likely be the season's next tropical depression by tomorrow. The long term outlook for this system looks a little bleak, dry air and shear await to the west. If the system remains far enough south then it may survive longer term. NHC give a 50% chance of TC development from 90L in the next 48hrs.

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Td 6 now but is forecast as you say to die after a few days. The one caveat I would add to this though is that the system has been very poorly forecast by the globals that kill it with many not even showing an open wave where this is now. If it can escape any big gulps of dry air to the north then this might surprise a few people, as it is I don't trust the models on this one yet.

The globals have been very poor on tropical systems this year so far very often underestimating them.

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Looks like TD6 is close to becoming a tropical storm. Deep convection is persisting and hooking around the LLC with banding features becoming evident. As you say Iceberg, TD6's demise is certainly not set in stone and the latest discussion from NHC reflects this.

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Tropical storm florence now....... and she continue to defy the model predictions.

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Florence looks impressive on satellite imagery, looks like a CDO feature is establishing itself and there continues to be strong banding to the south. Intensity is 40kts currently and I think Florence could become a high end tropical storm before it encounters cooler waters and drier air to the west.

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Will be watching this storm over next few days as going to Florida on Saturday. Ernesto seems to be the focus at the moment, unsurprisingly, but have heard talk that TS Florence is unlikely to grow in the next 24-48 hours, but could intensify after that.

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Florence has strengthened to 50kts, but this may be the peak (for now anyway). Convection has diminished this afternoon as Florence encounters a dry and stable airmass. In addition, the sea temps are only a marginal 26C beneath the storm. With these two factors at play, Florence will likely weaken over the coming days as it travels west-northwestwards.

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