New: September Sea Ice Poll

[BornFromTheVoid]

*There's a change in this poll from the previous one*

I will be submitting the results of this poll to ARCUS September Sea Ice Outlook, for their August update, so rather than guessing the sea ice extent minimum, the poll is for the MEAN SEPTEMBER SEA ICE EXTENT, based on NSIDC data.

The submission date is for August 6th, so please get your vote in by then or it won't count.

To help you make your decision, here are some stats from recent September mean extents, from the NSIDC

The 1979-2000 mean September SIE is 7,040,000km2

Here are the September means for the last 6 years

2011 = 4,610,000

2010 = 4,900,000

2009 = 5,360,000

2008 = 4,670,000

2007 = 4,280,000

2006 = 5,900,000

Here's a graph of all years since 1979

http://nsidc.org/ima...004_Figure3.png

Current Data

The current extent is at about 6,700,000km2 and around 1,900,000km2 below average, which is currently the lowest on record.

The current area is at about 4,250,000km2 and around 1,800,000km2 below average, which also is currently the lowest on record.

Here's a few links that may be of interest or help

Sea Ice Extent 1 2

Sea Ice Area

Daily Satellite Imagery of the Arctic Ocean Since 2009

Lots more data here

Let me know if there are any mistakes!

Edited July 31, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

I voted for 4,200,000km2, lowest on record. Same reasons as in the last poll, such as the poor state of the ice visible on the the MODIS images, the very high SSTAs. I would go lower, but I don't think the dipole will be as strong as 2007 for this September and the refreeze may occur quite early.

Also, the poll is set to private, so don't be shy!

[Gray-Wolf]

To avoid the 'doomster' label I've gone for a conservative 4.1 but feel that if the season runs long we could end up 3.8 or lower?

The start of the year should have shown us we were in for yet another low one but none of us were to know just how far the 'new synoptics' were going to skew things in favour of melt? Without the loss of snow cover around the NW Passage so early in the year would we have seen the apparently constant high temps there (we are still seeing the central passage weather station 10c above the average 4c for the time of year?) and such a rapid final melt?

When I look at the concentration maps and see the sheer amount of lower concentration ice in the basin (sat in those high sst's!) I can't help hoping that somehow we can hold onto this ice and not have it all disappear as it has in previous years? Surely the loss of all of that ice just cannot happen? could you imagine the final Area and Extent if all of that was to go???

[BornFromTheVoid]

To avoid the 'doomster' label I've gone for a conservative 4.1 but feel that if the season runs long we could end up 3.8 or lower?

The start of the year should have shown us we were in for yet another low one but none of us were to know just how far the 'new synoptics' were going to skew things in favour of melt? Without the loss of snow cover around the NW Passage so early in the year would we have seen the apparently constant high temps there (we are still seeing the central passage weather station 10c above the average 4c for the time of year?) and such a rapid final melt?

When I look at the concentration maps and see the sheer amount of lower concentration ice in the basin (sat in those high sst's!) I can't help hoping that somehow we can hold onto this ice and not have it all disappear as it has in previous years? Surely the loss of all of that ice just cannot happen? could you imagine the final Area and Extent if all of that was to go???

Hi GW, all fine reasoning in my opinion. Cheers for adding your vote!

Also, I think your inbox might be full?

[pottyprof]

I've gone for 3.6 just to prove that I'm a positive thinker.......

[BornFromTheVoid]

I've gone for 3.6 just to prove that I'm a positive thinker.......

Should I have included more lower options!?

[Gray-Wolf]

Should I have included more lower options!?

As I've said I wouldn't have the bottle to go lower but then I look at the Concentration and surface temps and wonder???

Nah!, I'm just being silly ,surely?

On a personal note I'm saddened that some of our 'Lurkers' are apparently too intimidated to dip their feet in these threads? Come on folks! the more the merrier? We are all of us on a rapid learning curve so nobody is an 'expert' (for longer than a day at least!)

BFTV's efforts gives our community an opportunity to have a global input! Surely you want a part of that?

To me this is probably the most important aspect of our changing world and will bring with it the biggest of the changes AGW has promised us and ,if current trends continue, well before they were suspected to?

Edited August 2, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

Should I have included more lower options!?

Probably.... All it takes from the current position is a slight change in the synoptics and a delayed onset of icing and we may see something well below 2007 levels. At the same time hell would freeze over and I will win the £4million jackpot on the lottery along with 4million other people.....

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last chance to vote in the poll folks, will be sending off the results this evening!

[Gray-Wolf]

I have deleted and re-voted due to the unforeseen circumstances now occurring in the basin.

My original vote reflected my view of the amount of ice lost to top and bottom melt alone and did not account for a 965mb storm pummeling the pack!!!

As such i have revised my vote downwards somewhat to reflect what this injection of energy will cause to occur to the pack esp. on the Pacific side of the basin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I have deleted and re-voted due to the unforeseen circumstances now occurring in the basin.

My original vote reflected my view of the amount of ice lost to top and bottom melt alone and did not account for a 965mb storm pummeling the pack!!!

As such i have revised my vote downwards somewhat to reflect what this injection of energy will cause to occur to the pack esp. on the Pacific side of the basin.

I may do the same, though I'm only gonna drop by 100k.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll probably send the results off at about 10pm tonight, so that's the cut off for any new votes or changes to existing votes.

[stewfox]

I thought I had already voted ?cant see it, have revised down now to 4.2

[BornFromTheVoid]

I thought I had already voted ?cant see it, have revised down now to 4.2

Are you sure it was this poll and not the old one?

Thanks for voting anyway!

EDIT: Just click "Delete My Vote" at the bottom of the poll if you want to change it.

Edited August 6, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The results have been sent off, thanks to everyone that voted

The average of all the votes rounded to the nearest 100k was 4.3million, which is what I used, so that's our contribution!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The August ARCUS sea ice outlook is now out, with the contribution from this poll!

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/august

[Gray-Wolf]

Cor!

that is good to see BFTV!!! Maybe attract another level of poster to the area (poach some of Neven;s Brit contributors?), don't know how they'd take to some of the posters on here though? Probably be a shock to those regulars to to see others with as broad and educated opinion as your own airing their concerns about the losses we have been seeing and the changes to the climate up there?

I can dream eh?

I take it you have read some of the comment sections on the newspapers running the cryosat2 story?? beggars belief really.

EDIT: Neven's also covering the poll results so gave our input a kinda plug in that some of us were able to adjust our punt in light of the upcoming storm due to you leaving it as late as poss before submitting? I'm guessing that some of the bigger organisations were not as flexible as this?

EDIT,EDIT: Neven ran his own poll and they weighed in at 4.3 million too! seems we are in good company?

Edited August 13, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cor!

that is good to see BFTV!!! Maybe attract another level of poster to the area (poach some of Neven;s Brit contributors?), don't know how they'd take to some of the posters on here though? Probably be a shock to those regulars to to see others with as broad and educated opinion as your own airing their concerns about the losses we have been seeing and the changes to the climate up there?

I can dream eh?

I take it you have read some of the comment sections on the newspapers running the cryosat2 story?? beggars belief really.

EDIT: Neven's also covering the poll results so gave our input a kinda plug in that some of us were able to adjust our punt in light of the upcoming storm due to you leaving it as late as poss before submitting? I'm guessing that some of the bigger organisations were not as flexible as this?

EDIT,EDIT: Neven ran his own poll and they weighed in at 4.3 million too! seems we are in good company?

Considering some of the contributions (such as the WUWT poll) give a minimum extent prediction rather than the requested September mean prediction, shows that the organisers of the outlook aren't too strict with their criteria. Also, the final date for submission was the 6th, so it seems likely some of the early August data is going to be included...

I think reading through the different contributions and the methodologies used is as useful as the overall prediction anyway.

EDIT: You think much too highly of me GW. You'll have the "sceptics" thinking all kinds of things

Edited August 14, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[songster]

Maybe attract another level of poster to the area (poach some of Neven;s Brit contributors?)

You've already got one - dunno if I qualify as "level" though. In fact, I'd not be surprised to find an overlap of half a dozen or more under differing names. 'Tis the way of the Internet.