Autumn 2012

[Matt McQueen]

I thought we might get some sunny weather for the end of Summer or beginning of Autumn.

Unfortunately, the weird East Kilbride weather system had other ideas. This ice storm was very localised - just around the area of the technology park, really. Surrounding areas had rain.

Although there was a lot of hail and ice, an hour and a half later the rain had washed it all away. Lots of localised flooding, though.

You'd think after 10 years working in East Kilbride, I'd be used to this.

[summer blizzard]

I am personally expecting Autumn to be drier as it progresses (relative to average), however with a very active hurricane season so far likely to put more energy in the Jet Stream than normal (assuming they re-curve) i suspect the north west of the UK will see a very wet and windy September overall.

[Summer Sun]

The Weather Outlook (TWO) have today issued there Autumn forecast

It can be viewed here

[damianslaw]

The Weather Outlook (TWO) have today issued there Autumn forecast

It can be viewed here

So a very traditional autumn being forecasted by two, a mainly settled and quite warm september away from the NW, a mostly unsettled October becoming stormy towards the end (as it often does) with temps hovering around average, then a predominantly unsettled and often chilly November.. Its a very safe conservative forecast based very much on what on average happens in autumn, however, its been a while since we have seen a combined very unsettled october and november with at or below average temps, we saw a number in the 90's most notably 1992, 1993, 1996, 1998 to a lesser extent and 2000 - though not particularly chilly, but this is what I am expecting, though I think the second half of september could be very unsettled in most places as well.

[Weather-history]

I wonder when will the first northerly of the season to bring low level to northern Scotland will occur? It was very early for autumn 1994, 3rd October 1994

[Weather-history]

It is often forgotten that the coldest autumn of recent times, 1993, actually started pretty warm, 27C at Bristol

[Slowpoke]

Apart from certain areas tomorrow, a fantastic start to September seems to be in-store for England, Wales, Southern Scotland and Ireland (excluding far North) with the Azores ridging in. Nice to see that humidity won't be too high will be low and winds be light meaning even if temperatures only manage the high-teens/twenties meaning with feel very pleasant, lovely and warm.

I am - personally - very pleased.

Edited September 3, 2012 by Slowpoke

[damianslaw]

Autumn 1993 quickly turned chilly and very unsettled after a warm start to September. Its been a long time since we have seen a very unsettled cool Sept, Oct and Nov. Its been a long time since we saw even a cooler than normal and wetter than normal september, I think 2004 was the last time, but the last appreciably cooler and wetter than normal september was way back in 1995 coming on the back of the wonderful august - a very marked change from month to month.

We've seen a number of very wet and milder than average autumns since 1995, most notably 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007. Recent autumns have brought a mish mash of sorts with alot of emphasis on very mild dry weather for lengthy periods with the odd very wet month thrown in such as Nov 09 and the very odd November that was 2010 which saw a very mild start turn into a very cold snowy end. Cold dry autumn months have been rare in recent years, though we have seen some shortlived cold dry spells such as in late Nov 05 and 08 and Oct 08.

Back to this autumn I have stated it will be mostly unsettled from mid september onwards, I'd be more assured had we seen a drier than normal summer/or average summer as I was fully expecting a marked change to very wet weather at some point this year given the very dry weather of last year and the start of the year, but given this change came in April it perhaps might not be the torrents I was anticipated, and unlike recent years I think late october will deliver the traditional very stormy wet weather.

Edited September 3, 2012 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

It seems that Septembers have taken it in turns for the most part.

2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 were all mostly settled

2004, 2006, 2008, 2011 were all unsettled

2001 and 2010 were mixed

Would be nice to see the Atlantic return next week as I'm already bored of just cloud day in day out. Give me a bright showery day anyday.

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's Autumn forecast is out now its fairly average through out with only potentially October becoming cooler than average

[AWD]

Netweather's Autumn forecast is out now its fairly average through out with only potentially October becoming cooler than average

Me too. Some early frosts possible in October along with some Autumnal feeling days, then a more wet & windy November.

The two main things I look for in Autumn are being forecast this Autumn by NW.

Bring it on!

[Gavin Hannah]

I wonder when will the first northerly of the season to bring low level to northern Scotland will occur? It was very early for autumn 1994, 3rd October 1994

GFS models are forecasting a possible cold incursion for early next week. I posted some images on the models discussion thread. Could bring in some cold uppers (0 degrees - perhaps less?) and some decent snow for the mountains. So I will be watching to see if the GFS firms up on this as we get closer to the weekend.

Edited September 4, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Ninman]

GFS models are forecasting a possible cold incursion for early next week. I posted some images on the models discussion thread. Could bring in some cold uppers (0 degrees - perhaps less?) and some decent snow for the mountains. So I will be watching to see if the GFS firms up on this as we get closer to the weekend.

I'm heading up to the Scottish borders next week and it looks like there could be another cold night Monday night according to the GFS :

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Autumn's in full-swing here in deepest Warwickshire. Conkers swelling, hazelnuts starting to look tempting, misty and crisp mornings. Blackberries are now edible (lost their early season bitterness) and sloes are starting to look like they could be useful......

[Gavin Hannah]

Same here where I am. Trees are beginning their shut down process for the winter. Every day, I see a new tree that's got the odd patch of leaves slowly turning Autumnal.

The GFS model seem to be firming up on the idea of a cold incursion next week. with 0 Deg uppers across Scotland slowly edging south by Thursday and bringing in -5 temps. Good chance for snow across mountain tops and chilly autumn weather across the UK.... Watch this space.

Edited September 5, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Thundery wintry showers]

Autumn 1993 quickly turned chilly and very unsettled after a warm start to September. Its been a long time since we have seen a very unsettled cool Sept, Oct and Nov. Its been a long time since we saw even a cooler than normal and wetter than normal september, I think 2004 was the last time, but the last appreciably cooler and wetter than normal september was way back in 1995 coming on the back of the wonderful august - a very marked change from month to month.

Perhaps surprisingly, September 1995 came out with a near-average mean temperature in the end, despite a cool and, for some, exceptionally wet start, and some chilly north-westerlies in the last week. Sunshine totals were also generally close to average except in the phenomenally wet east and north of Scotland. There was a spell of fairly warm and quiet weather in the third week which probably helped bring the average up a bit.

The Septembers of 1992, 1993 and 1994 were all much cooler than average though, as well as being dull and wet for the majority. I remember September 1993 being particularly dull and wet following the warm start. Septembers 2001 and 2008 were cool by day, but high overnight minima prevented those months from falling far below the long-term normal.

There has indeed been a lack of cold dry autumn months in recent years. October 2003 springs to mind as a rare example of one.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

No Housemartins today - I think they've gone !!

[Chris K]

Many farmers working hard out and about on roads and fields in their tractors this morning as I drove to work. I guess theyre taking advantage of the dry sunshine we are currently getting - and so they should its about time they got a bit of settled weather!

Edited September 7, 2012 by Chris K

[cheeky_monkey]

Perhaps surprisingly, September 1995 came out with a near-average mean temperature in the end, despite a cool and, for some, exceptionally wet start, and some chilly north-westerlies in the last week. Sunshine totals were also generally close to average except in the phenomenally wet east and north of Scotland. There was a spell of fairly warm and quiet weather in the third week which probably helped bring the average up a bit.

The Septembers of 1992, 1993 and 1994 were all much cooler than average though, as well as being dull and wet for the majority. I remember September 1993 being particularly dull and wet following the warm start. Septembers 2001 and 2008 were cool by day, but high overnight minima prevented those months from falling far below the long-term normal.

There has indeed been a lack of cold dry autumn months in recent years. October 2003 springs to mind as a rare example of one.

September 2000 was very wet

[Aaron]

Spiders.. spiders.. yup, it's that time of the year when spiders look for their mates, and I had or have 6 in my bedroom! Little ones mind you, thank goodness.

[Rainy]

Yet another wet day, till mid afternoon anyway. Never saw the sun.

Farming still in a miserable state up here.

One farmer told me he has only been able to put his dairy cattle on his pastures for 20 days this year so far. Sodden fields get trodden and spoiled, especially on heavy soils.

Meanwhile stock indoors are eating winter rations or expensive purchased feed. Feed wheat prices rise every day, Soya is in short supply and expensive.

The manure is accumulating and can't be got on to the land by machinery.

Two sunny blowy dry days, Wed and Thurs, encouraged some to try to harvest a late crop of grass. We really need a dry fortnight at least.

Passed a field today where a farmer had scraped in some silage. The land looked as though tanks had run all over it and sunk in places. A battlefield indeed.

Meanwhile grass seedheads are showing a plague of ergot. There's always some about in the autumn in these damp hills. It's having an extra good time this wet year. Perhaps we'll need some hallucinations and witchcraft to get through the winter.

[Gavin Hannah]

Saw my first Red breast Robin today.....

[cyclonic happiness]

Yet another wet day, till mid afternoon anyway. Never saw the sun.

Farming still in a miserable state up here.

One farmer told me he has only been able to put his dairy cattle on his pastures for 20 days this year so far. Sodden fields get trodden and spoiled, especially on heavy soils.

Meanwhile stock indoors are eating winter rations or expensive purchased feed. Feed wheat prices rise every day, Soya is in short supply and expensive.

The manure is accumulating and can't be got on to the land by machinery.

Two sunny blowy dry days, Wed and Thurs, encouraged some to try to harvest a late crop of grass. We really need a dry fortnight at least.

Passed a field today where a farmer had scraped in some silage. The land looked as though tanks had run all over it and sunk in places. A battlefield indeed.

Meanwhile grass seedheads are showing a plague of ergot. There's always some about in the autumn in these damp hills. It's having an extra good time this wet year. Perhaps we'll need some hallucinations and witchcraft to get through the winter.

Doesn't the Ergot render the silage inedible to cattle?

[Rainy]

Silage is normally cut when grass is green and leafy so not likely to be at risk. It's the old seed heads which have the ergot, on grain or grass. Uncut hayfields (still lots about up here) may well have ergot infestation and also any uncut field margins where grass has lingered all season (that's where we are seeing plenty). Also any land which has had to be left ungrazed this wet summer and where grass gone to seed. A big dose of ergot could cause cattle to abort.

[damianslaw]

Out walking today and certainly noticed many leaves on trees turning colour. A horse chestnut tree that is often the first tree I spot that changes leaf colour is certainly in autumnal cloak - it has vivid light red colours already- a bit earlier than usual. I do wonder if that very chilly night we saw on the last day of August has had a notable impact, it is usually the first frost of the season that stirs things... anyhow its always good watching the trees turn more and more as we move through September and looking at other signals that the seasons have firmly changed i.e. fungi appearing everywhere, berries on trees, return of winter season birds etc..

Despite todays warmth, at least here in the Lake District it does feel that summer has just about passed the baton onto autumn, and given next weeks outlook it looks like a smooth transfer... not like the British mens 100m olympic heat one or was it 400m can't remember! i.e. a stuttered long exchange..