Autumn 2012

[AWD]

I see the ECM 30 day model is saying the same thing too (from AWD in MO discussion)

Matt Hugo said on his twitter approx 2 weeks ago that the EC Seasonal model is forecasting a wet, windy and mild Autumn with early signs of a blocked winter.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Gavin Hannah]

Matt Hugo said on his twitter approx 2 weeks ago that the EC Seasonal model is forecasting a wet, windy and mild Autumn with early signs of a blocked winter.

A blocked winter will do nicely...

[AWD]

Matt Hugo's thoughts on the start of Autumn:

http://t.co/BHwHCRgN

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Single figure minima predicted for the Midlands tomorrow - here we go !

[Mark Neal.]

Interesting to see the CFS is now hinting at a very cold winter at this minute in time. Ian fergusson says it will be be interesting to see how this evolves in the coming month.

[reef]

A blocked winter will do nicely...

It depends, of course, where that blocking takes residence. Winters 1988/89 and 1991/92 were very blocked but very poor for cold and snow in the UK.

Need I remind people that this is the Autumn thread though, a season we have to get through first before even thinking about winter.

[Summer Sun]

The papers are now saying that the warm weather will last all of September with October and November likely to be warm too, say forecasters, creating a late Indian summer.

[Methuselah]

Do any of these 'forecasters' have names, SS?

[Summer Sun]

Do any of these 'forecasters' have names, SS?

No there are no names for the October and November quote, however Dr Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist, is quoted as saying: “As we head toward ­autumn, both the climate models and historical analogs are suggesting a relatively mild spell across much of Europe.â€

Forecasters with WSI (Weather Services International) said warm ocean winds moving across the UK will bring the return of warmer temperatures.

http://www.dailystar...n-a-balmy-high/

Edited August 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[SnowObsessor90]

No there are no names for the October and November quote, however Dr Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist, is quoted as saying: “As we head toward ­autumn, both the climate models and historical analogs are suggesting a relatively mild spell across much of Europe.â€

Forecasters with WSI (Weather Services International) said warm ocean winds moving across the UK will bring the return of warmer temperatures.

http://www.dailystar...n-a-balmy-high/

The papers are now saying that the warm weather will last all of September with October and November likely to be warm too, say forecasters, creating a late Indian summer.

I think we can say good bye to winter for the foreseeable if that ends up being the case. Still it's far early to say one way or another but going by the bizarre sense of timing the weather seems to have in this country it honestly wouldn't surprise me if things ended up panning out exactly like that.

Edited August 29, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Summer Sun]

Well after a wash out summer WSI are now saying the UK can look forward to a warm Autumn

Winter for the UK remains unclear yet but the best chances for below-normal temperatures will be in northeastern Europe and western Russia

Weather Services International: Mild European Autumn Expected

Ocean Temperature Patterns Suggest a Relatively Calm Period

Andover, MA, August 20, 2012 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (September-November) to average higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of the southern mainland.

“As we head toward autumn, both the climate models and historical analogs are suggesting a relatively mild spell across much of Europe,†said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “The combination of the emerging El Nino event and the cold North Pacific Ocean typically result in a lack of North Atlantic blocking and above-normal temperatures, especially across northern sections. Our early look at winter suggests that the best chances for below-normal temperatures will be in northeastern Europe and western Russia, while above-normal temperatures are favored across the Southeast. The fate of the western European winter is still unclear, as the primary drivers of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have yet to show their cards.â€

In September, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal

UK* – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland* – Slightly warmer than normal

Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

In October, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except far eastern sections

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal, except western sections & Iberia

In November, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal

UK – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

http://www.wsi.com/6...ase-details.htm

I would certainly take that forecast

Edited August 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Bottesford]

I think we can say good bye to winter for the foreseeable if that ends up being the case. Still it's far early to say one way or another but going by the bizarre sense of timing the weather seems to have in this country it honestly wouldn't surprise me if things ended up panning out exactly like that.

Is winter over already!? :lol:

Warm & later on stormy would suit me for autumn. Keep the bills down but see some action - and get our rain quota where it belongs!

[Evening thunder]

Matt Hugo said on his twitter approx 2 weeks ago that the EC Seasonal model is forecasting a wet, windy and mild Autumn with early signs of a blocked winter.

Yet at the same time the Met Office probability maps are going for a high probability of a below average Autumn (Sep/Oct/Nov)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

If you select Precipitation they show that as about the same probability for either above/near or below average, though biased towards slightly dry in the north

Interestingly rather conflicting predictions there, perhaps reminding us how hard seasons can be to predict. As usual I won't be taking any bets as to what way it goes.

IMO it would be nice to get a varied Autumn and some good Atlantic lows too.

Edited August 29, 2012 by Stormmad26

[summer blizzard]

Given that El Nino is still strengthening it is perhaps best that we take equivalent Autumns and see what the propensity is.

[Summer Sun]

As El-nino is looking likely to occur soon we can't rule out a winter like 2006 / 2007 was mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season, of course El-Nino can also deliver cold so there is a 50 / 50 chance of what we would get

Edited August 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Gavin Hannah]

But we also had El Nino in 09/10 ... the beast from the east. And La Nina in 10/11, the polar express. Anyone got a coin??

Edited August 29, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[SnowObsessor90]

Is winter over already!?

Nah, I'm just trying to keep my expectations more tempered this year as opposed to last time where I allowed them to become too over inflated so I won't be too disappointed no matter what the outcome

Edited August 29, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Relativistic]

I wouldn't trust WSI, I'm sure they forecast last October and November to be 2C below average across North Western Europe and the temperatures actually ended up the other way.

[Summer Sun]

I wouldn't trust WSI, I'm sure they forecast last October and November to be 2C below average across North Western Europe and the temperatures actually ended up the other way.

Yes they did call last Autumn wrong, they went colder than normal for 2 months (they didn't forecast September)

http://www.wsi.com/4...ase-details.htm

For last winter they went

December - Colder than normal

January & February - Warmer than normal

Looking at the CET they called January right, and February came in bang on average, they called December wrong as it came in at 0.6 °C above average

So there forecasts are mixed

Edited August 29, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Weather-history]

I wonder when we will see out first really cool showery NWly of the season like that of 27th September 1995

[damianslaw]

I suspect one reason why some forecasts are calling for a warmer than average autumn is due to the very warm SST's off the eastern seaboard of the USA, and if they believe it will be an atlantic driven autumn then these warm ocean winds will mean plenty of tropical maritime air... however, a number of models are suggesting a cool unsettled autumn with strong heights to our NW, as ever take such forecasts with a pinch of salt.

A hunch but I think a very unsettled and possibly cool autumn is on the cards interspersed with some shortlived drier and possibly quite warm weather at times, much as we will see to start the season but none of these will be prolonged.

[stewfox]

BBC says might be air frost in parts of Scotland tonight, that must be early ?.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

BBC says might be air frost in parts of Scotland tonight, that must be early ?.

Pretty sure it's always this week that we hear those words from the BBC Stew - right on time again !!

Many parts of England (4c here) are a lot colder than expected this morning, so possible anywhere really.

[Weather-history]

After the summer we had, I think we deserve at least one of these days this October

[BornFromTheVoid]

For Ireland at least, we had a dry February, March and first half of April, with some of the highest mean air pressures for the first few months of the year.

Mostly wet weather since then with mainly low pressure.

So bets on a few months of dry weather with high pressure coming up now?