Autumn 2012

[Thundery wintry showers]

I found most of last year's autumn pretty boring- I don't really remember much about the daily weather- but I certainly enjoyed that spell of unusual warmth and sunshine at the end of September and, for some, into the beginning of October. I'd say that it was right up there with the main highlights of the year.

[marky810]

Yes, well done

Meaning I haven't had a summer this year for autumn to follow...

[skifreak]

It's been said time and time again, nature is reactive, not proactive. Berry counts indicate the Summer so far, not the Autumn to come.

But if pattern matching has any merit at all in forecasting, then natures reacting to a specific set of patterns - maybe a sign of higher odds of a given outcome later. If a berry bush produces most berries in conditions where the prevailing pattern is more likely to result in a cold winter, then would that bush not gain an advantage by getting more of it's berries eaten and distributed widely during colder winters?

[cheeky_monkey]

to me pattern matching in an isolated location (like the UK) has no merit what so ever. The atmosphere and weather is a global system..you would have to try and match the weather pattern across the whole globe for a particular point in time for it to have any chance of working..bit like throwing a million dice..then trying to predict the outcome of the next throw just by looking at a few thousand dice and ignoring the rest.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Spotted 30+ Swallows having a 'practice line-up' on the phone wires today. Away soon no doubt

[rob48]

Spotted 30+ Swallows having a 'practice line-up' on the phone wires today. Away soon no doubt

Swifts departed here a couple of weeks ago. We don't get many swallows for some reason, maybe they like separate environments?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Swifts departed here a couple of weeks ago. We don't get many swallows for some reason, maybe they like separate environments?

I'll be glad when the HouseMartins go - 16 nests in our eves, made a right mess !!

[Relativistic]

I really hope Autumn is cooler than average, I would love to see frosts throughout November (last year was terrible with just two frosts in the last few days), and a real chill in the air by October. It would also be nice to finally see a significantly below average September, as I have yet to live through one!

[Bottesford]

I saw a lone swift the other day - much much later than the past few years. Normally they're gone by early August. Suspect the foul weather slowed them down - must have been a tough year for birds generally.

Hoping for a pleasant September - it can be a very nice month indeed albeit lacking in day length. We could certainly do with the sunshine after such a poor summer in general.

[Met4Cast]

Has September ever seen a significant amount of snow in the past? Whats the earliest that a significant amount of snow has been recorded?

[Aaron]

I really hope Autumn is cooler than average, I would love to see frosts throughout November (last year was terrible with just two frosts in the last few days), and a real chill in the air by October. It would also be nice to finally see a significantly below average September, as I have yet to live through one!

I did not have an air frost until December, my latest ever.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

On an Autumnal bird thought - a local farmer (or 'guardians of wildlife' - as the NFU would like us to call them) has kindly trimmed back about 5 miles of hedging already. Looks very neat BUT he's destroyed an entire season's larder of hawthorn, sloe, blackberry, honeysuckle, holly etc etc for the birds.

What a numpty.

Obviously 95% of them know the score - trim in feb/march when berries have gone & before nesting starts - but some are clearly clueless.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

One week to go before we can kick this sad excuse for a Summer into the skip.

*anxiously scans 8-14 day weather patterns for a 'nip' in the air*

[Gavin Hannah]

The GFS charts are pointing to a 7day+ Azores high at the start of September. Personally, I'm hoping it's a sort of ...

"Sorry for the rubbish summer, enjoy the Azores heat, and get ready for an epic winter" ...Azores high. A sort last hurrah for the summer.

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

The GFS charts are pointing to a 7day+ Azores high at the start of September. Personally, I'm hoping it's a sort of ...

"Sorry for the rubbish summer, enjoy the Azores heat, and get ready for an epic winter" ...Azores high. A sort last hurrah for the summer.

That be just fantastic

Edited August 27, 2012 by Letitsnowyorkshire

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Has September ever seen a significant amount of snow in the past? Whats the earliest that a significant amount of snow has been recorded?

Looking at the records back to 1616 http://www.netweathe...r-history;sess= the answer looks like a no, early October looks like tthe earliest that a significant amount of snow has been recorded the time of the little ice age.

for e.g ahttp://www.knmi.nl/~groenlan/weatherv3.pdfround

The existence of a sharply developed polar front is supported by the temperature reconstruction of the 1697 autumn (Figure 1). Roughly speaking, the anomalous coldness over Europe is more severe around the British Isles and the Low Countries than over the Mediterranean, which points to an unsually strong meridional temperature gradient feeding a strong and unstable polar jet.

The synoptic situation of the great storm of 1-2 October 1697 is characterized by strong northerly winds over the western half of the British Isles and northwesterly winds over the central North Sea. The post-frontal airstream must have been strong enough to advect cold Arctic air, which subscribes to Thomas Evans’ observation of snow in the North Wales mountains and the frost in London on 30 September 30 and the first few days of October. Snowfall in Wales, this early in the winter season, implies a strong southward flow of Arctic air and indicates that the storm depression of 1-2 October much have been very deep.

more recently 1965-66: The second half of November saw snow in most areas, more recently than that a number years of snows in December like 2010

Hope that gives you a picture of early snow.

Edited August 27, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[damianslaw]

Its been a while since we have experienced a very unsettled wet stormy autumn and there are some long range models indicating this autumn could produce a very disturbed one.

We've been locked in a pattern with high pressure to our NW and the trough anchored over the country since early April. Could the upcoming settled spell end up another late May episode i.e. a shortlived reprieve against the dominant unsettled pattern.. I wouldn't bet against it...

I find Autumn a tricky season to predict more so than summer and winter. I talked about wet and dry periods a few months back, when everyone was going on about the now forgotton drought and how lengthy dry periods are often cancelled out by lengthy very periods. I believe we are now in one of those lengthy wet periods which started in early April and could easily go on for 2 years or so.. with shortlived temporary drier periods.

[Gavin Hannah]

I saw the first signs of leaves turning yesterday.

[laserguy]

I saw the first signs of leaves turning yesterday.

Absolutely no sign of that whatsoever around here, but my Primadonna hops look like they'll be ready for harvesting around this time next week..... that's next year's ale sorted then!

[Methuselah]

What will you call your beer, barrie? Wayne Rooney!

[Evening thunder]

I saw a hillside of autumnal brown-leaved trees by the coast a bit further east from here in July, presumably battered by wind/rain and blown salt spray from the sea.

[Gavin Hannah]

Yup, the odd tree around here have a spittle of leaves turning slightly yellow.

I made a home made cider last year... was freaking lethal lol. I overdid it on the alcohol content.

Edited August 28, 2012 by MadSnowboarder

[Bobby]

Its been a while since we have experienced a very unsettled wet stormy autumn and there are some long range models indicating this autumn could produce a very disturbed one.

We've been locked in a pattern with high pressure to our NW and the trough anchored over the country since early April. Could the upcoming settled spell end up another late May episode i.e. a shortlived reprieve against the dominant unsettled pattern.. I wouldn't bet against it...

This is how I think things will go also. Certainly a fairly settled start to September but the models have been hinting things turning unsettled again for the second week of September. NAEFS is showing this

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like a pretty warm unsettled type pattern though (maybe similar to mid to late September 1999?) with the trough well out in the Atlantic. A long way off of course.

[Bobby]

I see the ECM 30 day model is saying the same thing too (from AWD in MO discussion)

According to Matt Hugo:

Latest EC 32 day signalling a clear trend towards high pressure up to approx 9th of Sep, after that low pressure/unsettled conditions return

I wonder what the longer range seasonal forecasts saying about this Autumn, any signs of what the season as a whole may bring?

Edited August 28, 2012 by Barb-